Whichever NFL executive decided earlier this year that Jacksonville should host Tennessee on Thursday Night Football must have already had other plans tonight. It took some guts to match up two teams with a combined 2014 record of 5-27. Neither franchise has had a winning record since 2011, and neither has won more than nine games in a season since 2008--the last time either team reached the playoffs.
But from a fantasy perspective, tonight's game is huge, particularly for the home team's players:
(1) Allen Hurns was the Ranked 80th among WRs this preseason (according to 130+ experts compiled by Fantasy Pros), he was #44 on my list. Presently the 7th highest scoring fantasy WR, Hurns has been an every-week must-start player. But at the risk of raining on a bunch of parades, he has a scoring streak of seven straight games. What does that mean? It's statistically improbable that Hurns will continue to score at that pace. The average receiving yardage total of the top 40 WRs (total fantasy points) is 645. Hurns stands at 697. While we don't discount the impact of TDs, yardage is a more reliable indicator of future performance. This makes Hurns a sell-high WR (if your trade deadline hasn't passed), destined to finish the year deep in the bottom half of the top 20 WRs.
(2) Hurns' teammate, Allen Robinson, should remain in the top 10 (he's currently the #6 fantasy WR). He has 37% more targets than Hurns this year and has the potential to creep into the top 3 if Hurns fades. Tennessee boasts the third best passing defense with respect to total passing yards allowed, but don't let that dissuade you from starting Robinson in regular leagues and daily leagues: Teams have attempted fewer passes against the Titans than against anyone else. In fact, Tennessee has given up the 5th most yards per attempt.
(3) That spells good news for Blake Bortles, obviously. Bortles has thrown for 2+ TDs in all but two games this season and is gearing up for a stretch run against soft opponents including San Diego and New Orleans. Even if Hurns regresses, Bortles can be started with confidence as a QB1 most weeks, including tonight.
(4) When I think about which teams have the best young offensive nucleus--QB, RB, and WR--Oakland and Jacksonville come to mind. In the latter camp, T.J. Yeldon is highly underrated. The 27th highest scoring RB thus far, Yeldon is on pace for a healthy 1,230 total yards and four TDs. His low TD total should jump out at everyone. For most of the season he hasn't been given goal-line touches. Add that to his workload, and you have a top 15 RB. Yeldon is one of my most underrated RBs heading into the playoffs.
But from a fantasy perspective, tonight's game is huge, particularly for the home team's players:
(1) Allen Hurns was the Ranked 80th among WRs this preseason (according to 130+ experts compiled by Fantasy Pros), he was #44 on my list. Presently the 7th highest scoring fantasy WR, Hurns has been an every-week must-start player. But at the risk of raining on a bunch of parades, he has a scoring streak of seven straight games. What does that mean? It's statistically improbable that Hurns will continue to score at that pace. The average receiving yardage total of the top 40 WRs (total fantasy points) is 645. Hurns stands at 697. While we don't discount the impact of TDs, yardage is a more reliable indicator of future performance. This makes Hurns a sell-high WR (if your trade deadline hasn't passed), destined to finish the year deep in the bottom half of the top 20 WRs.
(2) Hurns' teammate, Allen Robinson, should remain in the top 10 (he's currently the #6 fantasy WR). He has 37% more targets than Hurns this year and has the potential to creep into the top 3 if Hurns fades. Tennessee boasts the third best passing defense with respect to total passing yards allowed, but don't let that dissuade you from starting Robinson in regular leagues and daily leagues: Teams have attempted fewer passes against the Titans than against anyone else. In fact, Tennessee has given up the 5th most yards per attempt.
(3) That spells good news for Blake Bortles, obviously. Bortles has thrown for 2+ TDs in all but two games this season and is gearing up for a stretch run against soft opponents including San Diego and New Orleans. Even if Hurns regresses, Bortles can be started with confidence as a QB1 most weeks, including tonight.
(4) When I think about which teams have the best young offensive nucleus--QB, RB, and WR--Oakland and Jacksonville come to mind. In the latter camp, T.J. Yeldon is highly underrated. The 27th highest scoring RB thus far, Yeldon is on pace for a healthy 1,230 total yards and four TDs. His low TD total should jump out at everyone. For most of the season he hasn't been given goal-line touches. Add that to his workload, and you have a top 15 RB. Yeldon is one of my most underrated RBs heading into the playoffs.