Early-Season Prowess Doesn't Correlate With Rest-of-Season Performance

It's "put things in perspective" Wednesday.  For the second straight season, I've wanted to know whether pre-bye player performances (weeks 1 thru 3) are a predictor of how they'll perform the rest of the season.  Using standard scoring and taking the top 10 scorers each week at QB, TE, K, and DST (and the top 20 at RB and WR), we can identify how many fast-out-of-the-gate performers are still among fantasy's best positional players.

For example, of the 10 highest scoring QBs thru Week 3, five are no longer in the top 10.  New entrants include Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr.

What does this mean?  If you were stuck with an underperforming QB in the first few weeks, there were still plenty of opportunities to find a QB1, whether through a buy-low trade or on waivers.

And of course, conversely, there were five highly overperforming QBs through three games, including Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson (Big Ben was the fifth, though he dropped because of a serious injury).

Collectively, across all positions, 48% of the current top 10/20 positional players were not in the top 10/20 at the conclusion of Week 3.  And 72% weren't in the top 10/20 right after Week 1.

Think about that: Only 28% of the best Week 1 performers would remain in the top 10/20 10 weeks later.  It's a reminder that it's never too late to remake a team, one player at a time.