Week 7 Thursday Night Football Predictions

Heading into Thursday Night Football, the 49ers have one won of their past five contests vs. the Seahawks, and haven't scored more than 19 points against them in their past eight games.  But most of that goes out the window.

The once vaunted Seattle D has given up 20.8 points per game--up from 15.9 a year ago--and are tied for 27th in interceptions (three).  Offensively, Russell Wilson is well below career averages in passing TDs and inexplicably has yet to run one in.  Jimmy Graham is (as expected) good but not great.  Marshawn Lynch has been injury prone and, when on the field, ineffective (3.3 YPC).

Earlier this year, the Seahawks were a short punch into the end zone away from becoming a mini-dynasty.  Now they're a fighting for relevancy, as they need to win nine of their final 10 games to comfortably reach the playoffs.

From a fantasy perspective, though, I'm actually fairly bullish about Seattle's players.  As mentioned many times on this blog, their relatively challenging schedule (they've played three teams that are currently undefeated), with a couple exceptions, is about to get significantly easier, culminating in fantasy playoff matchups vs. the Ravens, Browns, and Rams.  This is a team on the rise.

For all of Russell Wilson's mediocrity, he's still putting up low-end QB1 numbers.  Few QBs have a lower floor.  He's passed for 200+ yards and at least one TD (pretty much always one TD, actually, but still . . .) in every game.  I'm buying low on Wilson.  Trading Andy Dalton and an WR3 for Wilson and a WR1/2 sounds very good to me.  And believe me: Many Wilson owners in your league are probably more than happy to get something for him; just look how many are benching him in favor of Blake Bortles, Ryan Fitzpatrick, etc.

Lynch is another solid buy-low guy.  I warned this preseason that I was staying away from him in drafts because his heavily historical workload and pounding running style would eventually catch up with him.  It has.  But that doesn't mean he won't be a fantasy asset come the fantasy playoffs.

And that defense: I was very wrong about them this preseason, but not painfully wrong.  The Broncos have nearly doubled the Seahawks' fantasy production so far.  In fact, if the Broncos D were a flex player, it would be the second highest scoring flex player in all of fantasy football (behind Devonta Freeman).  Seattle would be in the top 35.  I envision the Seahawks D picking things up as they reach this must-win point of the season.  Expect more turnovers, plenty of QB pressure (they actually lead the league in sacks), and an improved offense that will force opponents to take more offensive risks later in games.

This could all be bunk.  San Francisco could put up 27 points tonight to avenge all those recent losses to their intra-divisional rival.  But I think Seattle needs this win more, and I think it'll show up in the box score.