We try to gain a fantasy edge wherever we can. The edges usually come from knowing something most others don't--believing there's a highly probable outcome that most believe is highly improbable.
Take RB Anthony "Boobie" Dixon. I've received more questions about whether to start him this week than about any other player. He's the consensus 36th ranked RB based on 131 experts. Many/most believe he's worth a flex start in 14+ team leagues. Staring the obvious in the face, it's easy to understand why: Dixon is starting this week for Buffalo. He scored more fantasy points last season than any other healthy Bills RB. He's playing against a Tennessee D that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense . . . and the Titans haven't faced a top 10 rushing attack yet.
My view is that the experts have this all wrong, and are misleading fantasy managers by buying into a myth--that Dixon is startable. I could be wrong, obviously. But I believe there's a high probability I'm right: Dixon won't get more than five fantasy points Sunday. He's probably the 50th best RB this week, not the 36th.
Instead, it's Dan Herron--the consensus 50th ranked Week 5 RB--who's the better play. Herron could be a bust, but his ceiling is more than double Dixon's. His career 4.5 YPC crushes Dixon's 3.4. And he has better hands than Dixon: 20% of Herron's career touches have come through the passing game; for Dixon, it's 7%.
While Dixon is starting, Herron is equally likely to lead the team in Week 5 touches. With a superior skill-set, Herron is the better risk to take.
In other news, WR Torrey Smith has been wildly underutilized this season, with only nine receptions in four games. The Niners are struggling on every front. They need to exploit their best weapons. As badly as Colin Kaepernick's playing, Smith won't be contained forever. Ignore his #45 WR ranking. This is a great week to take a flier on him.
And occasionally we hear player grumblings--generally when they want to get more involved in the offense. It happened with Jimmy Graham two weeks ago, and in response, I posted here and on Twitter that Graham was a guaranteed to have his best game of the season. He did. Now this week Roddy White is calling for the ball. He's pissed, and I believe the Falcons will respond. White is the 55th ranked WR this week among 131 experts. It's ridiculously shortsighted. Never underestimate an accomplished veteran with a chip on his shoulder. White will far exceed expectations this week.
Take RB Anthony "Boobie" Dixon. I've received more questions about whether to start him this week than about any other player. He's the consensus 36th ranked RB based on 131 experts. Many/most believe he's worth a flex start in 14+ team leagues. Staring the obvious in the face, it's easy to understand why: Dixon is starting this week for Buffalo. He scored more fantasy points last season than any other healthy Bills RB. He's playing against a Tennessee D that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL in run defense . . . and the Titans haven't faced a top 10 rushing attack yet.
My view is that the experts have this all wrong, and are misleading fantasy managers by buying into a myth--that Dixon is startable. I could be wrong, obviously. But I believe there's a high probability I'm right: Dixon won't get more than five fantasy points Sunday. He's probably the 50th best RB this week, not the 36th.
Instead, it's Dan Herron--the consensus 50th ranked Week 5 RB--who's the better play. Herron could be a bust, but his ceiling is more than double Dixon's. His career 4.5 YPC crushes Dixon's 3.4. And he has better hands than Dixon: 20% of Herron's career touches have come through the passing game; for Dixon, it's 7%.
While Dixon is starting, Herron is equally likely to lead the team in Week 5 touches. With a superior skill-set, Herron is the better risk to take.
In other news, WR Torrey Smith has been wildly underutilized this season, with only nine receptions in four games. The Niners are struggling on every front. They need to exploit their best weapons. As badly as Colin Kaepernick's playing, Smith won't be contained forever. Ignore his #45 WR ranking. This is a great week to take a flier on him.
And occasionally we hear player grumblings--generally when they want to get more involved in the offense. It happened with Jimmy Graham two weeks ago, and in response, I posted here and on Twitter that Graham was a guaranteed to have his best game of the season. He did. Now this week Roddy White is calling for the ball. He's pissed, and I believe the Falcons will respond. White is the 55th ranked WR this week among 131 experts. It's ridiculously shortsighted. Never underestimate an accomplished veteran with a chip on his shoulder. White will far exceed expectations this week.