Week 4 Predictions Results

Of the seven against-the-grain recommendations made Saturday, three hit on the nose, two were off, and the other two will be played tonight.  First, the bad, and why they didn't work out:

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(1) Ty Montgomery had six targets yesterday, but reeled in three catches for only 15 yards, plus two carries for 10 yards.  I started him in my 20-team league and won in spite of his letdown.  The good news is that he was generously targeted given his role as the Packers' #3 wideout.  The talent and opportunities are there.  The question is whether he can reach that next level.

(2) C.J. Anderson looked good in the first quarter, getting a 27-yard reception and putting together some half-decent runs.  But Ronnie Hillman's 72-yard TD score negated any progress Anderson could have shown.  For the first time all season, I'm 50% concerned with his future value.  It will be interesting to see how Gary Kubiak responds this week.

And the good:

(1) On Friday I traded Lamar Miller for Philip Rivers in my work league and tried to trade for him in my 20-team league.  Was anticipating big things for a starter whose disappointing back-to-back games had little bearing on his future potential.  Predicted 350+ yards and 2+ TDs on Saturday.  He ended up throwing for 358 yards and three TDs, becoming Sunday's #1 fantasy QB.  That's why timing matters.

(2) I also predicted Jay Cutler--who almost no one in their right mind trusted as their starter--would rack up 250+ yards and 2+ scores.  He ended up with 281 yards and two TDs.  Not bad for a desperation flier.

(3) Charles Clay had nine catches for 111 yards on 13 targets.  He was my most underrated TE heading into Sunday.

For tonight, I also made pushes to start Thomas Rawls and Doug Baldwin, in what should be a 20+ point Seattle win.  Good luck to those still in the running for a win.