I play in leagues just like most of you. I deal with bye weeks, injuries, underperformers, and other obstacles to success. The hope is that by talking frankly about my teams--dealing with both struggles and successes--we can try to figure out which tools and decisions (many of them unconventional) comprise the keys to winning.
I have Arian Foster in two of my three leagues. So when the news broke that he was likely out for the year (and we now know he is), I took a minute to grumble to myself. Then I spent the next 15-20 minutes scouring opponents' underperforming RBs, and which ones have a good chance of breaking out. I do this every week, several times a week, regardless of my injury/bye/underperforming issues. It's how I traded for Philip Rivers two days before the start of his torrid four-week run. It's how I landed Calvin Johnson three days before he resumed being "Megatron."
Next, I spent 15-20 minutes searching through each league's waivers. Can anyone potentially replace Foster? I'm not looking for a 4-7 point guy; I'm looking for a boom-bust RB who can either be easily replaced if he doesn't pan out, or who can become a key cog in my quest for a title (think Charcandrick West three weeks ago).
This approach--methodical, consistent, forward-looking, and anything-but-conservative--has made my three teams the top scorers in each league. Hesitate to share that, because this blog is not about saying "Look at me!" But it's evidence that the approach works. Not every week. But over the course of the season, enough bold decisions pan out to convert good drafts into great teams.
With that in mind, here are some RBs I'm targeting this week, both on waivers and in trades. Keep in mind I'm in a 10-team, 12-team, and 20-team league. So player availability varies dramatically.
Ameer Abdullah -- Why dredge up a rookie whose fumbling problems and inefficient running has kept him from being startable since Week 3? For starters, the Lions just fired their offensive coordinator. Second, Detroit’s season is going nowhere, meaning at some point they’ll want to see what exactly they have in Abdullah. Third, he’s a very talented player coming off arguably his best (not his most productive, but his best-looking) game since Week 1. Plenty of favorable matchups remain. Eager to bolster my RB corps, Abdullah is a great boom-bust add.
Javorius “Buck” Allen -- I’ve talked about him for the past two weeks, ever since I started pushing to sell high on Justin Forsett (remains to be seen if that was a good idea, but I still feel confident about it). Allen has run quite well in a limited capacity. If Baltimore keeps losing (more likely than not), I’d expect Allen to earn more opportunities in preparation for next season. If Allen thrives, at worst he’ll be part of a 1-2 punch with Forsett, putting him on the RB3 radar.
C.J. Anderson -- This name conjures up pain in many fantasy managers. So many first round picks wasted (including my now-foolish pick in my 10-team league). But let's put this in perspective: Anderson didn't start a game last year until Week 11, and he still managed to rack up the league's 11th most RB fantasy points. That's the result of about 900 total yards and nine TDs in those final seven games. Anderson isn't remotely likely to duplicate that production. But he remains a potential RB1/2 if Hillman gets hurt or struggles. Remember: It was Hillman who lost his job to Anderson last season. Just because something seems implausible now, it doesn't mean it won't happen.
David Cobb -- The rookie is arguably Tennessee’s most talented RB. With a potential Week 9 return looming (barring a setback), Cobb will enter an offense ranked 28th in total yards per game and 30th in points per game. Given Marcus Mariota’s injury and Zach Mettenberger’s mediocrity, Cobb, could deliver Duke Johnson-type numbers—a fellow-rookie who’s carved out a niche as an RB3 with occasional upside. So while I’m not expecting a game-changer here, he could be a good lineup-filler until/unless a better option becomes available.
Tevin Coleman -- Remember when Coleman was the 1a RB to Devonta Freeman’s 1b? Fun times. But here’s the catch: Atlanta is fourth in the league in points per game. There will be games this season when the Falcons are comfortably ahead late—when trotting out Freeman in a 30-7 game simply doesn’t make sense. Coleman as clock-eater? If you’re desperate, it’s a gamble worth taking. And of course, Coleman is one of the league's top RB handcuffs. He's one of my biggest targets in my 20-team league.
Melvin Gordon -- His season’s been a minor disaster compared to the buzz surrounding him in training camp. But there’s plenty of talent here, on a team that scores in buckets. If the offensive line can hold (a big “if”), and if Gordon can eliminate fumbling from his repertoire (an equally big "if"), he could return to RB3 status by Week 9, just in time for a dream home matchup versus the Bears. Branden Oliver is not the answer. It's still Gordon's psuedo-job to lose.
Matt Jones -- He’s the most talented RB in Washington and remains unowned in nearly half of ESPN leagues. I’ve been pushing him since August, and while injuries have limited his effectiveness, Jones has RB1/2 potential when the passing game is clicking.
Jeremy Langford -- If Matt Forte is traded before the trade deadline, Langford could be in line for 15+ touches per game. If Alshon Jeffery goes, too, TDs could be hard to come by. But if Jeffery stays, Forte’s departure could make Langford an overnight RB2.
Khiry Robinson -- The cat’s out of the bag after Robinson scored twice Sunday, bringing his TD total to four. I tried to trade for him last week in my 20-team league, but my opponent knew better. He's a fantastic handcuff who, in a run-friendly offense, can do damage any given week.
I have Arian Foster in two of my three leagues. So when the news broke that he was likely out for the year (and we now know he is), I took a minute to grumble to myself. Then I spent the next 15-20 minutes scouring opponents' underperforming RBs, and which ones have a good chance of breaking out. I do this every week, several times a week, regardless of my injury/bye/underperforming issues. It's how I traded for Philip Rivers two days before the start of his torrid four-week run. It's how I landed Calvin Johnson three days before he resumed being "Megatron."
Next, I spent 15-20 minutes searching through each league's waivers. Can anyone potentially replace Foster? I'm not looking for a 4-7 point guy; I'm looking for a boom-bust RB who can either be easily replaced if he doesn't pan out, or who can become a key cog in my quest for a title (think Charcandrick West three weeks ago).
This approach--methodical, consistent, forward-looking, and anything-but-conservative--has made my three teams the top scorers in each league. Hesitate to share that, because this blog is not about saying "Look at me!" But it's evidence that the approach works. Not every week. But over the course of the season, enough bold decisions pan out to convert good drafts into great teams.
With that in mind, here are some RBs I'm targeting this week, both on waivers and in trades. Keep in mind I'm in a 10-team, 12-team, and 20-team league. So player availability varies dramatically.
Ameer Abdullah -- Why dredge up a rookie whose fumbling problems and inefficient running has kept him from being startable since Week 3? For starters, the Lions just fired their offensive coordinator. Second, Detroit’s season is going nowhere, meaning at some point they’ll want to see what exactly they have in Abdullah. Third, he’s a very talented player coming off arguably his best (not his most productive, but his best-looking) game since Week 1. Plenty of favorable matchups remain. Eager to bolster my RB corps, Abdullah is a great boom-bust add.
Javorius “Buck” Allen -- I’ve talked about him for the past two weeks, ever since I started pushing to sell high on Justin Forsett (remains to be seen if that was a good idea, but I still feel confident about it). Allen has run quite well in a limited capacity. If Baltimore keeps losing (more likely than not), I’d expect Allen to earn more opportunities in preparation for next season. If Allen thrives, at worst he’ll be part of a 1-2 punch with Forsett, putting him on the RB3 radar.
C.J. Anderson -- This name conjures up pain in many fantasy managers. So many first round picks wasted (including my now-foolish pick in my 10-team league). But let's put this in perspective: Anderson didn't start a game last year until Week 11, and he still managed to rack up the league's 11th most RB fantasy points. That's the result of about 900 total yards and nine TDs in those final seven games. Anderson isn't remotely likely to duplicate that production. But he remains a potential RB1/2 if Hillman gets hurt or struggles. Remember: It was Hillman who lost his job to Anderson last season. Just because something seems implausible now, it doesn't mean it won't happen.
David Cobb -- The rookie is arguably Tennessee’s most talented RB. With a potential Week 9 return looming (barring a setback), Cobb will enter an offense ranked 28th in total yards per game and 30th in points per game. Given Marcus Mariota’s injury and Zach Mettenberger’s mediocrity, Cobb, could deliver Duke Johnson-type numbers—a fellow-rookie who’s carved out a niche as an RB3 with occasional upside. So while I’m not expecting a game-changer here, he could be a good lineup-filler until/unless a better option becomes available.
Tevin Coleman -- Remember when Coleman was the 1a RB to Devonta Freeman’s 1b? Fun times. But here’s the catch: Atlanta is fourth in the league in points per game. There will be games this season when the Falcons are comfortably ahead late—when trotting out Freeman in a 30-7 game simply doesn’t make sense. Coleman as clock-eater? If you’re desperate, it’s a gamble worth taking. And of course, Coleman is one of the league's top RB handcuffs. He's one of my biggest targets in my 20-team league.
Melvin Gordon -- His season’s been a minor disaster compared to the buzz surrounding him in training camp. But there’s plenty of talent here, on a team that scores in buckets. If the offensive line can hold (a big “if”), and if Gordon can eliminate fumbling from his repertoire (an equally big "if"), he could return to RB3 status by Week 9, just in time for a dream home matchup versus the Bears. Branden Oliver is not the answer. It's still Gordon's psuedo-job to lose.
Matt Jones -- He’s the most talented RB in Washington and remains unowned in nearly half of ESPN leagues. I’ve been pushing him since August, and while injuries have limited his effectiveness, Jones has RB1/2 potential when the passing game is clicking.
Jeremy Langford -- If Matt Forte is traded before the trade deadline, Langford could be in line for 15+ touches per game. If Alshon Jeffery goes, too, TDs could be hard to come by. But if Jeffery stays, Forte’s departure could make Langford an overnight RB2.
Khiry Robinson -- The cat’s out of the bag after Robinson scored twice Sunday, bringing his TD total to four. I tried to trade for him last week in my 20-team league, but my opponent knew better. He's a fantastic handcuff who, in a run-friendly offense, can do damage any given week.