Yesterday I highlighted some DSTs with very favorable and unfavorable fantasy playoff (weeks 14-16) schedules. Obviously, things can change between now and then. Some "easy" matchups today might be more difficult later this season due to injuries, depth chart changes, etc.
But it's useful to understand, for example, that the 7th highest scoring DST (Panthers) will face one of the highest scoring offenses (Falcons) in weeks 14 and 16. It means that Carolina's DST is likely to be worth more now than it will in 7-9 weeks. It means that packaging them in a trade now is likely to give you more value than holding them and playing them in the fantasy playoffs--when they'll probably be a lineup liability.
Now it's on to TEs. One thing to keep in mind: Stats in isolation can be dangerously misleading, especially when we're not even halfway through the season. The otherwise pretty awful Ravens D is somehow third best vs. opposing TEs. You can find this stat all over the Internet.
But does it mean what it implies? Of course not. Attached is a breakdown of Baltimore's six opponents. Aside from Gary Barnidge schooling them in Week 5, the Ravens appear to be unstoppable vs. TEs. But aside from Tyler Eifert, none of the other top 22 fantasy scoring TEs have faced Baltimore yet. And in Eifert's case, he had a TD called back that many believe should have counted.
So at this stage, it's hard to know which defenses are true TE-stoppers. If you all have suggestions, shout 'em out. In the meantime, here are some middling-to-good TEs whose values *should* increase during the fantasy playoffs, putting them on the verge of must-start (TE1) options in at least two of the three weeks:
Eric Ebron -- Weeks 14-16: @Rams, @Saints, 49ers
Ebron looked great before getting hurt. He's facing two awful pass defenses in the fantasy playoffs. I ranked him 22nd among TE in my final preseason rankings because of expectations of inconsistency. But he's a great bet for TE1 production in weeks 15 and 16.
Ladarius Green -- @Chiefs, Dolphins, @Raiders
So much of Green's value hinges on Antonio Gates' health. Gates, of course, might sit out this week because of an MCL sprain. If Green is the starter during the fantasy playoffs--or frankly, even if he isn't--he's a TE1 candidate throughout the fantasy playoffs.
Zach Ertz -- Bills, Cardinals, Redskins
It's always been "only a matter of time" before Ertz takes the lead at TE in Philly vs. Brent Celek. Available in over 40% of ESPN leagues, he's a good high-upside flier to grab and start if you're in dire need. Looking ahead to the playoffs, he's scheduled to face relatively middling Bills and Redskins Ds. If he can usurp Celek by then, he'll be a must-start TE1.
Jordan Reed -- @Bears, Bill, @Eagles
Unowned in more than 60% of ESPN leagues, Reed is great when healthy. The problem has always been his health. He absolutely needs to be owned whenever someone lacks a top 10 TE, and if starting during the fantasy playoffs, has top 8 TE potential each week.
But it's useful to understand, for example, that the 7th highest scoring DST (Panthers) will face one of the highest scoring offenses (Falcons) in weeks 14 and 16. It means that Carolina's DST is likely to be worth more now than it will in 7-9 weeks. It means that packaging them in a trade now is likely to give you more value than holding them and playing them in the fantasy playoffs--when they'll probably be a lineup liability.
Now it's on to TEs. One thing to keep in mind: Stats in isolation can be dangerously misleading, especially when we're not even halfway through the season. The otherwise pretty awful Ravens D is somehow third best vs. opposing TEs. You can find this stat all over the Internet.
But does it mean what it implies? Of course not. Attached is a breakdown of Baltimore's six opponents. Aside from Gary Barnidge schooling them in Week 5, the Ravens appear to be unstoppable vs. TEs. But aside from Tyler Eifert, none of the other top 22 fantasy scoring TEs have faced Baltimore yet. And in Eifert's case, he had a TD called back that many believe should have counted.
So at this stage, it's hard to know which defenses are true TE-stoppers. If you all have suggestions, shout 'em out. In the meantime, here are some middling-to-good TEs whose values *should* increase during the fantasy playoffs, putting them on the verge of must-start (TE1) options in at least two of the three weeks:
Eric Ebron -- Weeks 14-16: @Rams, @Saints, 49ers
Ebron looked great before getting hurt. He's facing two awful pass defenses in the fantasy playoffs. I ranked him 22nd among TE in my final preseason rankings because of expectations of inconsistency. But he's a great bet for TE1 production in weeks 15 and 16.
Ladarius Green -- @Chiefs, Dolphins, @Raiders
So much of Green's value hinges on Antonio Gates' health. Gates, of course, might sit out this week because of an MCL sprain. If Green is the starter during the fantasy playoffs--or frankly, even if he isn't--he's a TE1 candidate throughout the fantasy playoffs.
Zach Ertz -- Bills, Cardinals, Redskins
It's always been "only a matter of time" before Ertz takes the lead at TE in Philly vs. Brent Celek. Available in over 40% of ESPN leagues, he's a good high-upside flier to grab and start if you're in dire need. Looking ahead to the playoffs, he's scheduled to face relatively middling Bills and Redskins Ds. If he can usurp Celek by then, he'll be a must-start TE1.
Jordan Reed -- @Bears, Bill, @Eagles
Unowned in more than 60% of ESPN leagues, Reed is great when healthy. The problem has always been his health. He absolutely needs to be owned whenever someone lacks a top 10 TE, and if starting during the fantasy playoffs, has top 8 TE potential each week.