A quarter of the way through the season, I've hit 54% of my 50 preseason bold predictions. These past two years I've done only 10 per season, hitting 14 out of 20 during that span (70%). So my guys have some work to do.
That said, given that each of these picks ranged from edgy to crazy, hitting over 50% is good thing. If you took a chance on two fliers at the end of your draft and hit big on one of them, that could be the difference between a 7-6 team and a playoff team.
My worst bold calls so far have to be Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Knile Davis, Josh Robinson, Charles Johnson, and Vernon Davis. I drafted Davis in two leagues and Charles Johnson in one; have cut bait on both, sadly. It's not to say they won't rebound. But there are too many other good options out there.
My best calls--the ones truly no expert saw coming, and which led many people to think I was nuts--include Andy Dalton, DeMarco Murray, Danny Woodhead, Allen Hurns, Leonard Hankerson, and Jimmy Graham. I laid out reasons why each of these guys would wildly over- or underperform, and so far they're playing as expected.
Obviously, all this can change overnight. But it's useful to look back four games into the season and realize that what's obvious today was not at all evident to most people in August. At the same time, guys who seem invincible today are practically destined to drop in the rankings the rest of the way. That includes my BFF Andy Dalton. It includes Woodhead. Anyone who's playing at an elite level who cannot hope to sustain elite production is the ideal trade bait. If you wait too long (e.g. Steve Smith), you'll miss out on cashing in.
That said, given that each of these picks ranged from edgy to crazy, hitting over 50% is good thing. If you took a chance on two fliers at the end of your draft and hit big on one of them, that could be the difference between a 7-6 team and a playoff team.
My worst bold calls so far have to be Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Knile Davis, Josh Robinson, Charles Johnson, and Vernon Davis. I drafted Davis in two leagues and Charles Johnson in one; have cut bait on both, sadly. It's not to say they won't rebound. But there are too many other good options out there.
My best calls--the ones truly no expert saw coming, and which led many people to think I was nuts--include Andy Dalton, DeMarco Murray, Danny Woodhead, Allen Hurns, Leonard Hankerson, and Jimmy Graham. I laid out reasons why each of these guys would wildly over- or underperform, and so far they're playing as expected.
Obviously, all this can change overnight. But it's useful to look back four games into the season and realize that what's obvious today was not at all evident to most people in August. At the same time, guys who seem invincible today are practically destined to drop in the rankings the rest of the way. That includes my BFF Andy Dalton. It includes Woodhead. Anyone who's playing at an elite level who cannot hope to sustain elite production is the ideal trade bait. If you wait too long (e.g. Steve Smith), you'll miss out on cashing in.