With news that DeMarco Murray is having an MRI on his hamstring, it's time to revisit what this page highlighted three months ago:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/863538450360802
Every NFL running back who'd endured roughly as many touches as Murray had last season either (a) experienced a meaningful drop-off the next year, or (b) completely fell off the rails. Why would Murray be any different.
Here's what I wrote on June 5th:
"I don't think Murray will play 16 games this year. I also don't think he'll maintain his 4.8 career yards-per-carry average running behind an offensive line that doesn't stand up to what he's accustomed to in Dallas.
"If Murray falls to me at the end of the 1st round or even the early 2nd, I'm taking someone else. He might help me win a few games early in the season. But he's not someone I can bank on for the fantasy playoff run."
Let's learn from this. The next time an RB gets 400+ touches in a season, lay off the next year. Don't think they can defy fate; based on precedent, they probably won't. Sure, Murray can still be a huge contributor this year. The injury might, in the end, be meaningless.
But in all likelihood--and remember, we win leagues by dealing in probabilities--he won't be anywhere close to what people paid for him. His unfathomable 0.5 YPC is not simply because of the offensive line. It's because this year's Murray is not the same as last year's, with or without an injury.
The one exception is dynasty leaguers, who should be all over Murray. With a much lighter workload this season, he should be ready to kick it next September.
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/863538450360802
Every NFL running back who'd endured roughly as many touches as Murray had last season either (a) experienced a meaningful drop-off the next year, or (b) completely fell off the rails. Why would Murray be any different.
Here's what I wrote on June 5th:
"I don't think Murray will play 16 games this year. I also don't think he'll maintain his 4.8 career yards-per-carry average running behind an offensive line that doesn't stand up to what he's accustomed to in Dallas.
"If Murray falls to me at the end of the 1st round or even the early 2nd, I'm taking someone else. He might help me win a few games early in the season. But he's not someone I can bank on for the fantasy playoff run."
Let's learn from this. The next time an RB gets 400+ touches in a season, lay off the next year. Don't think they can defy fate; based on precedent, they probably won't. Sure, Murray can still be a huge contributor this year. The injury might, in the end, be meaningless.
But in all likelihood--and remember, we win leagues by dealing in probabilities--he won't be anywhere close to what people paid for him. His unfathomable 0.5 YPC is not simply because of the offensive line. It's because this year's Murray is not the same as last year's, with or without an injury.
The one exception is dynasty leaguers, who should be all over Murray. With a much lighter workload this season, he should be ready to kick it next September.