In the interest of transparency, I made a lot of terrible calls this past weekend to go with a lot of favorable ones. First, the bad:
My bargain-basement picks were awful. Nick Foles, Fred Jackson, . . . When the kicker (Nick Folk) is the best bargain pick of the day, that's a problem. There were plenty of shocking performances from mediocre talents yesterday, but these six predictions were painfully off the mark. Most surprised that a Steelers D that made Colin Kaepernick look great in Pittsburgh was able to stuff Foles in St. Louis. Maybe I shouldn't go so far into the basement next weekend--maybe stick to the ground floor, where receivers and running backs get more than two touches.
I also overreached with Tyrod Taylor, who's playing like the 2012 version of RGIII. Hard to believe only six weeks ago he was locked in a QB battle with Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel. That, alone, made me skeptical of Taylor's breakout potential. He's shut me up for now.
On the flip side, I warned about starting five players, some of whom are viewed as every-week plugins: Matt Forte, Terrance Williams, Crockett Gillmore, Josh Scobee, and the Ravens D. Okay, Scobee doesn't count, but the Ravens (6 fantasy points) and Forte (7)--not to mention Williams--were all viewed as starting-caliber players in Week 3. Even Gillmore was a trendy TE start. But they all underperformed.
Most notable was Williams, who scored zero points. This is where trading is critically important. I was very high on Williams this preseason, ranking him 20th among all WRs. When Romo got hurt, I contacted several owners in the league where I drafted him (in the other league where I drafted him, a week before I traded him and Danny Woodhead for Allen Robinson and Lamar Miller).
On Thursday I secured a deal: Williams and John Brown for Mike Evans and Roddy White. Then I dropped White and added Marvin Jones. If I'd waited until after Sunday's performance, this deal never could have gone down. But my opponent believed Williams would still be a high-upside WR2/3. Now he knows, but a few days too late.
While we're talking trades, here's one more that hopefully shows how aggressiveness (not in a negative way, but in a "seize the moment" way) pays off:
I have Antonio Brown in my work league. When Ben Roethlisberger was carted off with a knee injury, it was clear that, worst-case scenario, Brown's value was about to plummet. Michael Vick is a huge step down from Ben. Of course, at the time I'm writing this, we now know Ben is likely to return in 4-6 weeks. But at the time, I was willing to gamble: Better to get top dollar for Brown than to risk losing too much value in the short- and potentially long-term.
So I reviewed my opponents' rosters. If I could have any player, who would it be? Well, a healthy Gronk is as positionally elite as they come. Am I concerned about injury risk? Sure. But I don't want to get stuck with a 5-7 point Antonio Brown for the foreseeable future. That's not gonna help me win games.
Within minutes after Ben left the field, I offered Brown, Jordan Reed, and Tevin Coleman (Devonta Freeman's Week 3 performance threatens Coleman's future value) for Gronk, LeGarrette Blount (at the time, he was having a good game, but not a blow-up game), and DeSean Jackson.
I viewed this offer as a steal, but only because Brown was about to take a big hit, and Coleman a smaller hit. Yesterday at this time, that offer would have seemed pretty fair: My opponent likely was worried about Blount's role on a team that didn't seem to need him, and was eyeing a more secure RB situation in Coleman. Reed is a big step down from Gronk, but is a top 7 TE when healthy, and has some nice upside if Kirk Cousins improves. And finally, Brown is fantasy's #1 WR (or maybe #2 behind Julio Jones). No receiver is more reliable, especially in our 0.5 PPR format.
10 minutes after I made the offer, my opponent accepted. They probably didn't realize Ben was hurt--or if they did, didn't understand the implications on Brown. Nor did they (I imagine) recognize how Freeman was making a push for more playing time when Coleman heals up.
So when I talk about trading, remember, it's about timing. You wait an extra day or an extra hour, and it might be too late to capitalize on value. The difference between a 13-3 season and a 10-6 season sometimes rests on the ability to move three or four players at their peak.
My bargain-basement picks were awful. Nick Foles, Fred Jackson, . . . When the kicker (Nick Folk) is the best bargain pick of the day, that's a problem. There were plenty of shocking performances from mediocre talents yesterday, but these six predictions were painfully off the mark. Most surprised that a Steelers D that made Colin Kaepernick look great in Pittsburgh was able to stuff Foles in St. Louis. Maybe I shouldn't go so far into the basement next weekend--maybe stick to the ground floor, where receivers and running backs get more than two touches.
I also overreached with Tyrod Taylor, who's playing like the 2012 version of RGIII. Hard to believe only six weeks ago he was locked in a QB battle with Matt Cassel and E.J. Manuel. That, alone, made me skeptical of Taylor's breakout potential. He's shut me up for now.
On the flip side, I warned about starting five players, some of whom are viewed as every-week plugins: Matt Forte, Terrance Williams, Crockett Gillmore, Josh Scobee, and the Ravens D. Okay, Scobee doesn't count, but the Ravens (6 fantasy points) and Forte (7)--not to mention Williams--were all viewed as starting-caliber players in Week 3. Even Gillmore was a trendy TE start. But they all underperformed.
Most notable was Williams, who scored zero points. This is where trading is critically important. I was very high on Williams this preseason, ranking him 20th among all WRs. When Romo got hurt, I contacted several owners in the league where I drafted him (in the other league where I drafted him, a week before I traded him and Danny Woodhead for Allen Robinson and Lamar Miller).
On Thursday I secured a deal: Williams and John Brown for Mike Evans and Roddy White. Then I dropped White and added Marvin Jones. If I'd waited until after Sunday's performance, this deal never could have gone down. But my opponent believed Williams would still be a high-upside WR2/3. Now he knows, but a few days too late.
While we're talking trades, here's one more that hopefully shows how aggressiveness (not in a negative way, but in a "seize the moment" way) pays off:
I have Antonio Brown in my work league. When Ben Roethlisberger was carted off with a knee injury, it was clear that, worst-case scenario, Brown's value was about to plummet. Michael Vick is a huge step down from Ben. Of course, at the time I'm writing this, we now know Ben is likely to return in 4-6 weeks. But at the time, I was willing to gamble: Better to get top dollar for Brown than to risk losing too much value in the short- and potentially long-term.
So I reviewed my opponents' rosters. If I could have any player, who would it be? Well, a healthy Gronk is as positionally elite as they come. Am I concerned about injury risk? Sure. But I don't want to get stuck with a 5-7 point Antonio Brown for the foreseeable future. That's not gonna help me win games.
Within minutes after Ben left the field, I offered Brown, Jordan Reed, and Tevin Coleman (Devonta Freeman's Week 3 performance threatens Coleman's future value) for Gronk, LeGarrette Blount (at the time, he was having a good game, but not a blow-up game), and DeSean Jackson.
I viewed this offer as a steal, but only because Brown was about to take a big hit, and Coleman a smaller hit. Yesterday at this time, that offer would have seemed pretty fair: My opponent likely was worried about Blount's role on a team that didn't seem to need him, and was eyeing a more secure RB situation in Coleman. Reed is a big step down from Gronk, but is a top 7 TE when healthy, and has some nice upside if Kirk Cousins improves. And finally, Brown is fantasy's #1 WR (or maybe #2 behind Julio Jones). No receiver is more reliable, especially in our 0.5 PPR format.
10 minutes after I made the offer, my opponent accepted. They probably didn't realize Ben was hurt--or if they did, didn't understand the implications on Brown. Nor did they (I imagine) recognize how Freeman was making a push for more playing time when Coleman heals up.
So when I talk about trading, remember, it's about timing. You wait an extra day or an extra hour, and it might be too late to capitalize on value. The difference between a 13-3 season and a 10-6 season sometimes rests on the ability to move three or four players at their peak.