There are several top 100 ADP players I’ve been avoiding in drafts. Some of these are controversial calls, but then again, what's the point of having this blog if I don't promote contrarianism when it's absolutely called for:
(1) Cam Newton (82 ADP) – The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is huge. But beyond that, Cam’s rushing yardage, yards per carry, and rushing TDs have declined the last couple years. Granted, he missed two games last season, but even his yards per pass attempt dropped to a career low. At a time when more and more QBs are posting 3,500+ yard, 30+ TD seasons, Cam enters 2015 with more question marks than assurances.
(2) Tom Brady (70 ADP) – It’s not just the suspension. I’ve written repeatedly about Brady’s continual regression on completing passes beyond 10 years. The offensive scheme has adjusted to suit his capabilities. But this is not the same QB we saw 10 or even five years ago. When he returns to the field, the 2015 version of Brady will be that of a top 12-16 QB . . . at best.
(3) Frank Gore (30 ADP) -- For years he’s run behind an elite offensive line in San Francisco. The Colts’ line is pedestrian by comparison. Gore is running out of time. Could he produce high-end RB2 numbers again? Yes, he could. But at 32 years old, he's increasingly likely to break down at some point. Meanwhile, the Colts signed him because they didn’t have a reliable RB in last season’s playoffs. Don’t expect 18 carries a game. Instead, we’ll see 13-15, culminating in less than 850 rushing yards and less and seven scores—meaning he won’t be a top 20 RB and probably won't be a top 50 player.
(4) Roddy White (86 ADP) – As I’ve written several times this preseason, no one doubts that this 33-year-old’s best days are well behind him. Last season’s 24th best fantasy WR is way overvalued. I don’t want to pick White as anything more than a middling WR5, and given the choice between White and a younger guy with more upside in the 10th or 11th round (e.g. Leonard Hankerson), I’ll take the upside guy.
(5) Jordan Cameron (89 ADP) -- Last preseason he was almost universally viewed as a top 5 TE heading into Week 1. But concussions have sidelined him each of the past three seasons. I’d rather pick a TE bargain in the last round than take Cameron in the 7th to 9th. Yes, Cameron could produce nice value in Miami, but his injury history makes me question his ability to meet expectations.
(1) Cam Newton (82 ADP) – The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is huge. But beyond that, Cam’s rushing yardage, yards per carry, and rushing TDs have declined the last couple years. Granted, he missed two games last season, but even his yards per pass attempt dropped to a career low. At a time when more and more QBs are posting 3,500+ yard, 30+ TD seasons, Cam enters 2015 with more question marks than assurances.
(2) Tom Brady (70 ADP) – It’s not just the suspension. I’ve written repeatedly about Brady’s continual regression on completing passes beyond 10 years. The offensive scheme has adjusted to suit his capabilities. But this is not the same QB we saw 10 or even five years ago. When he returns to the field, the 2015 version of Brady will be that of a top 12-16 QB . . . at best.
(3) Frank Gore (30 ADP) -- For years he’s run behind an elite offensive line in San Francisco. The Colts’ line is pedestrian by comparison. Gore is running out of time. Could he produce high-end RB2 numbers again? Yes, he could. But at 32 years old, he's increasingly likely to break down at some point. Meanwhile, the Colts signed him because they didn’t have a reliable RB in last season’s playoffs. Don’t expect 18 carries a game. Instead, we’ll see 13-15, culminating in less than 850 rushing yards and less and seven scores—meaning he won’t be a top 20 RB and probably won't be a top 50 player.
(4) Roddy White (86 ADP) – As I’ve written several times this preseason, no one doubts that this 33-year-old’s best days are well behind him. Last season’s 24th best fantasy WR is way overvalued. I don’t want to pick White as anything more than a middling WR5, and given the choice between White and a younger guy with more upside in the 10th or 11th round (e.g. Leonard Hankerson), I’ll take the upside guy.
(5) Jordan Cameron (89 ADP) -- Last preseason he was almost universally viewed as a top 5 TE heading into Week 1. But concussions have sidelined him each of the past three seasons. I’d rather pick a TE bargain in the last round than take Cameron in the 7th to 9th. Yes, Cameron could produce nice value in Miami, but his injury history makes me question his ability to meet expectations.