In the book FF4W I try to answer questions like, "Do elite players score more fantasy points at home than on the road?" One question takes this a step further: What is the advantage for elite players coming off a loss *and* playing at home?
The timeframe analyzed was from 2008 to 2010. The top 10 DSTs had a greater bump when playing at home after a loss than the top 10 players at any other position. Over this three-year period, top 10 DSTs averaged 3.88 more points per home-game-after-a-loss than in any other games.
When factoring in the next tier of positional players (11 thru 20), RBs and WRs led the way with 2.28 and 2.19 more points than usual, respectively. The second tier DSTs' advantage fell to 1.76.
This is why the Seahawks DST--coming off a loss and playing at home--is my pick for 20+ fantasy points today.
But enough with talk of dominance. Let's figure each position's most overrated player is:
QB Tyrod Taylor -- Using what we know above, the Dolphins are in a prime rebounding position. Coming off an ugly loss and on the verge of falling to last place in the AFC East, this is as much of a must-win game as you'll find in Week 3. Taylor played out of his mind last Sunday vs. a weak Patriots secondary. He's likely to regress fairly dramatically today, despite what conventional wisdom is screaming all over the Internet.
RB Matt Forte -- It's not hard to imagine Jeremy Langford taking over for Forte in the third quarter, as the Bears opt to end Seattle's pummeling of their franchise RB. While Forte is a seeming must-start every week, 4-7 points won't be enough for most fantasy owners, who would be better off taking a flier on a guy like Bilal Powell or Fred Jackson.
WR Terrance Williams -- Most of you know how high I was on Williams this preseason, ranking him 20th among all fantasy WRs. But I also traded him in one of my leagues this week for a reason: Brandon Weeden isn't the answer in Dallas. He's a game manager, and not a great one. Expect more running than passing today as the Cowboys play not-to-lose. Williams could be good for 50 yards, but I don't see a reason to start him with plenty of higher-upside WRs available in most leagues.
TE Crockett Gillmore -- Let's not get carried away by one game. Gillmore isn't known to be a an elite-TE-in-the-making. He's a weekly desperation flier in a league where plenty of other 4-6 points options exist.
K Josh Scobee -- It's clear the Steelers will be going for two after touchdowns much of the time. He's a rare too-risky kicker in a high-powered offense.
DST Ravens -- A home match-up vs. a divisional rival: What could be worse? Losing Terrell Suggs in Week 1 has an impact for a team that won't win many games with their offense. The Bengals have an efficient offensive unit that can hurt you a lot of different ways.
The timeframe analyzed was from 2008 to 2010. The top 10 DSTs had a greater bump when playing at home after a loss than the top 10 players at any other position. Over this three-year period, top 10 DSTs averaged 3.88 more points per home-game-after-a-loss than in any other games.
When factoring in the next tier of positional players (11 thru 20), RBs and WRs led the way with 2.28 and 2.19 more points than usual, respectively. The second tier DSTs' advantage fell to 1.76.
This is why the Seahawks DST--coming off a loss and playing at home--is my pick for 20+ fantasy points today.
But enough with talk of dominance. Let's figure each position's most overrated player is:
QB Tyrod Taylor -- Using what we know above, the Dolphins are in a prime rebounding position. Coming off an ugly loss and on the verge of falling to last place in the AFC East, this is as much of a must-win game as you'll find in Week 3. Taylor played out of his mind last Sunday vs. a weak Patriots secondary. He's likely to regress fairly dramatically today, despite what conventional wisdom is screaming all over the Internet.
RB Matt Forte -- It's not hard to imagine Jeremy Langford taking over for Forte in the third quarter, as the Bears opt to end Seattle's pummeling of their franchise RB. While Forte is a seeming must-start every week, 4-7 points won't be enough for most fantasy owners, who would be better off taking a flier on a guy like Bilal Powell or Fred Jackson.
WR Terrance Williams -- Most of you know how high I was on Williams this preseason, ranking him 20th among all fantasy WRs. But I also traded him in one of my leagues this week for a reason: Brandon Weeden isn't the answer in Dallas. He's a game manager, and not a great one. Expect more running than passing today as the Cowboys play not-to-lose. Williams could be good for 50 yards, but I don't see a reason to start him with plenty of higher-upside WRs available in most leagues.
TE Crockett Gillmore -- Let's not get carried away by one game. Gillmore isn't known to be a an elite-TE-in-the-making. He's a weekly desperation flier in a league where plenty of other 4-6 points options exist.
K Josh Scobee -- It's clear the Steelers will be going for two after touchdowns much of the time. He's a rare too-risky kicker in a high-powered offense.
DST Ravens -- A home match-up vs. a divisional rival: What could be worse? Losing Terrell Suggs in Week 1 has an impact for a team that won't win many games with their offense. The Bengals have an efficient offensive unit that can hurt you a lot of different ways.