How do we anticipate one player is due for a regression? Let's look at Miami's WR Rishard Matthews. His six catches for 115 yards Sunday afternoon have prompted plenty of fantasy owners to drop someone--at times, someone with much higher upside--to go for the "quick fix." In ESPN leagues, Matthews' ownership has gone from 0.3% to 6.2% in two days. Is it deserved?
Not at all. These fantasy owners are very likely to be disappointed in Matthews' production the next couple of weeks, and most will drop him before Week 5. Here's why this scenario is more likely than not to occur:
(1) Jarvis Landry is still the clear-cut #1 receiver in Miami, yet he hasn't scored. In PPR, he's been fairly dominant. But in standard leagues, we have yet to see him at his best. The odds are in Landry's favor to score before Matthews gets his second TD.
(2) Rookie DeVante Parker has yet to make an impact, but will. Compared to Matthews, Parker is the superior talent. He played one snap in Week 1 and a little more on Sunday. As his reps increase, others' reps--including Matthews'--will decrease.
(3) Last season's ninth highest scoring RB, Lamar Miller, has been wildly ineffective this year. Hasn't helped that he got hurt on Sunday. Once he figures things out, Miami's more potent running attack will be more productive. Miller will get his points at the expense of guys like Matthews. Not saying it's a zero-sum game where Miller will rise to the same degree Matthews will fall. But am saying that there's only enough room for two to three dominant players in Miami, and Matthews won't be one of them.
(4) Matthews is on pace for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns. He could put up zeroes in weeks 3 and 4 and still be on pace for WR5 numbers, which I believed was his ceiling entering the season. Not saying my view will prove to be right. But the odds are against Matthews suddenly turning into a WR3+ with the rest of the team underperforming.
So before pouncing on a flavor-of-the-week, take stock of *why* they're doing so well. Is it sustainable? Or is it a result of better players not producing? It's all about probabilities: Matthews' quick start was unlikely; a continuation of success is nearly impossible.
Not at all. These fantasy owners are very likely to be disappointed in Matthews' production the next couple of weeks, and most will drop him before Week 5. Here's why this scenario is more likely than not to occur:
(1) Jarvis Landry is still the clear-cut #1 receiver in Miami, yet he hasn't scored. In PPR, he's been fairly dominant. But in standard leagues, we have yet to see him at his best. The odds are in Landry's favor to score before Matthews gets his second TD.
(2) Rookie DeVante Parker has yet to make an impact, but will. Compared to Matthews, Parker is the superior talent. He played one snap in Week 1 and a little more on Sunday. As his reps increase, others' reps--including Matthews'--will decrease.
(3) Last season's ninth highest scoring RB, Lamar Miller, has been wildly ineffective this year. Hasn't helped that he got hurt on Sunday. Once he figures things out, Miami's more potent running attack will be more productive. Miller will get his points at the expense of guys like Matthews. Not saying it's a zero-sum game where Miller will rise to the same degree Matthews will fall. But am saying that there's only enough room for two to three dominant players in Miami, and Matthews won't be one of them.
(4) Matthews is on pace for 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns. He could put up zeroes in weeks 3 and 4 and still be on pace for WR5 numbers, which I believed was his ceiling entering the season. Not saying my view will prove to be right. But the odds are against Matthews suddenly turning into a WR3+ with the rest of the team underperforming.
So before pouncing on a flavor-of-the-week, take stock of *why* they're doing so well. Is it sustainable? Or is it a result of better players not producing? It's all about probabilities: Matthews' quick start was unlikely; a continuation of success is nearly impossible.