When is there a high probability a player is overrated? When his stat projections are far better than what he's likely to achieve. (A secondary consideration is his fantasy playoff schedule, which can doom fantasy owners who aren't paying close attention. But we'll go into that another time.)
Take Aaron Rodgers, who I drafted in the second round in one league. I'm in the midst of a week where, in two leagues, I've already parted with Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, and Matt Forte (more on him in a moment). Every year, every player on my roster is on the table for trading; there are no untouchables. Rodgers included. I've already put feelers out to see who's interested--particularly those who've lost Big Ben or Romo, or who aren't happy with Luck, or who gambled a little too much with Brees.
Last year Rodgers scored 342 fantasy points in what was the 31-year-old's second best season. This year he's on pace for 411 points. It should seem obvious that, in all likelihood, Rodgers won't maintain this pace.
Last year RB rushes accounted for 23% of the Packers' TDs. The league average was even higher. This year RB rushes have accounted for only 11% of Packer TDs. In all likelihood, Lacy and/or Starks (more likely the former) will start racking up TDs at a higher rate than we've seen, which should cut into some of Rodgers' TD potential.
If a desperate opponent with, say, Luck believes that Rodgers is due for a record season, I'd be happy to gamble and swap QBs and secure a significant flex upgrade in return (e.g. a WR3 for a WR1). Sure, Rodgers could be on his way to a record season. But 411 points isn't realistic. And Luck could be on his way to a mediocre season. But a finish outside the top 12 isn't realistic, meaning Luck and his offensive line are a great bet to turn things around and post top 5 QB numbers the rest of the way.
This is the mindset I use every day of every season. Sometimes it doesn't work, like the year I traded for Randy Moss the season his career officially tanked. I'm human and make a lot of mistakes. But a majority of the time, my trades work out in my favor. It's a gamble. And if the odds are in my favor, I sign off on the deal nearly every time.
Re: Forte, I traded him last night, along with Kendall Wright and Brandon Weeden, for Justin Forsett, A.J. Green, and Kirk Cousins. Why the hell would I do that? Four reasons:
(1) I lost Tony Romo and am desperate for a QB with some upside.
(2) Kendall Wright is on pace for 1,100+ yards and 11 TDs. I was very high on him this preseason, but those projections are unrealistic. So I'm selling high.
(3) The Bears are reportedly considering trading some of their top players to free up cap space and start over next season. The NFL trade deadline is in four weeks. Forte is a top candidate to find a new team. If he does, there's a good chance he'll join a backfield with an existing solid RB option. It's not farfetched to consider that Forte's production could drop in a month if he's handling only 60-70% of the touches he was accustomed to getting in Chicago, thereby lowering his value.
(4) Oh, and this is a 20-team league. There are no free agents worth grabbing. Zero. Every starting QB was drafted. Every starting RB and handcuff RB are taken. So the team we have is essentially the team we're stuck with.
Time will tell if this deal works out for me. The Yahoo! projections showed that I was making a huge mistake. But if Forte gets traded to, say, the Cowboys, there's no way Joseph Randle's getting benched, and there's almost no way Lance Dunbar is dropped from the passing game. It's a calculated risk that, in the near term, crushes me at RB but elevates me at QB and WR. But I made the offer because there's more than a 50% chance I'll come out ahead. And that's all I needed to know.
Take Aaron Rodgers, who I drafted in the second round in one league. I'm in the midst of a week where, in two leagues, I've already parted with Antonio Brown, Calvin Johnson, and Matt Forte (more on him in a moment). Every year, every player on my roster is on the table for trading; there are no untouchables. Rodgers included. I've already put feelers out to see who's interested--particularly those who've lost Big Ben or Romo, or who aren't happy with Luck, or who gambled a little too much with Brees.
Last year Rodgers scored 342 fantasy points in what was the 31-year-old's second best season. This year he's on pace for 411 points. It should seem obvious that, in all likelihood, Rodgers won't maintain this pace.
Last year RB rushes accounted for 23% of the Packers' TDs. The league average was even higher. This year RB rushes have accounted for only 11% of Packer TDs. In all likelihood, Lacy and/or Starks (more likely the former) will start racking up TDs at a higher rate than we've seen, which should cut into some of Rodgers' TD potential.
If a desperate opponent with, say, Luck believes that Rodgers is due for a record season, I'd be happy to gamble and swap QBs and secure a significant flex upgrade in return (e.g. a WR3 for a WR1). Sure, Rodgers could be on his way to a record season. But 411 points isn't realistic. And Luck could be on his way to a mediocre season. But a finish outside the top 12 isn't realistic, meaning Luck and his offensive line are a great bet to turn things around and post top 5 QB numbers the rest of the way.
This is the mindset I use every day of every season. Sometimes it doesn't work, like the year I traded for Randy Moss the season his career officially tanked. I'm human and make a lot of mistakes. But a majority of the time, my trades work out in my favor. It's a gamble. And if the odds are in my favor, I sign off on the deal nearly every time.
Re: Forte, I traded him last night, along with Kendall Wright and Brandon Weeden, for Justin Forsett, A.J. Green, and Kirk Cousins. Why the hell would I do that? Four reasons:
(1) I lost Tony Romo and am desperate for a QB with some upside.
(2) Kendall Wright is on pace for 1,100+ yards and 11 TDs. I was very high on him this preseason, but those projections are unrealistic. So I'm selling high.
(3) The Bears are reportedly considering trading some of their top players to free up cap space and start over next season. The NFL trade deadline is in four weeks. Forte is a top candidate to find a new team. If he does, there's a good chance he'll join a backfield with an existing solid RB option. It's not farfetched to consider that Forte's production could drop in a month if he's handling only 60-70% of the touches he was accustomed to getting in Chicago, thereby lowering his value.
(4) Oh, and this is a 20-team league. There are no free agents worth grabbing. Zero. Every starting QB was drafted. Every starting RB and handcuff RB are taken. So the team we have is essentially the team we're stuck with.
Time will tell if this deal works out for me. The Yahoo! projections showed that I was making a huge mistake. But if Forte gets traded to, say, the Cowboys, there's no way Joseph Randle's getting benched, and there's almost no way Lance Dunbar is dropped from the passing game. It's a calculated risk that, in the near term, crushes me at RB but elevates me at QB and WR. But I made the offer because there's more than a 50% chance I'll come out ahead. And that's all I needed to know.