This site deals in probabilities. As absolutist as I sound occasionally (because your daily barrage of great questions prevents me sometimes from offering elaborate explanations; keep 'em coming, by the way), my views are based on the likelihood that x will occur rather than y.
(When the odds are 50-50, I suggest it's a "toss up" or "flip of the coin," and then offer what I'd do.)
While we're only, primarily, one week into a long season, there's only a small sample size to evaluate players' future performance. But that doesn't stop millions of fantasy owners from painstakingly analyzing their rosters, opponents' rosters, and free agents to figure out how to improve their team. The fact is, a mid-tier tight end who racks up 14 points one week is highly, *highly* unlikely to maintain such a pace (14 points times 16 weeks equals 224--or 21% more than Gronk scored all last season).
With that in mind, here are some players whose fantastic Week 1 performances have, essentially, no bearing on future performance:
QB Nick Foles -- Week 1's 8th highest scoring QB lacks the personnel and skills to be anywhere close to near-elite. Any of you owning him in 2-QB leagues should consider trading him now. Six of his final seven games are brutal: @Bal, @Cin, Ari, Det, @Sea, @SF. He won't be a top 18 QB when this season ends, and could fall outside the top 24.
RB Bishop Sankey -- On pace to blow DeMarco Murray's 2014 production out of the water, Sankey very well could be better than I expected this season, due in large part to a sharp upgrade at QB. But I'm not buying him as a top 20 RB. Terrance West should continue cutting into his workload, and the eventual return of David Cobb means Sankey has little room for regression if he wants to take over the backfield. He's a huge sell-high RB to an RB-needy opponent.
WR Tavon Austin -- I don't live in a world where Austin is a top 10 WR. No offense to the 3rd-year pro, but he has yet to prove that he's much more than a gadget guy--highly athletic, yet lacking the ability to serve as a regular contributor. That he touched the ball only six times Week 1 is indicative of his role. His ESPN fantasy league ownership has jumped 300% this week to 16.2% overall. That's 16.2% too high.
TE Darren Fells -- Those stuck with Owen Daniels as their tight end might be tempted to grab Fells. But the 29-year-old--playing in only his second NFL season--did more in Week 1 than in 10 games last year. He's splitting time with TE Jermaine Gresham and is the sixth or seventh option on offense. The top 6 fantasy tight end will eventually be the top 26 tight end.
(When the odds are 50-50, I suggest it's a "toss up" or "flip of the coin," and then offer what I'd do.)
While we're only, primarily, one week into a long season, there's only a small sample size to evaluate players' future performance. But that doesn't stop millions of fantasy owners from painstakingly analyzing their rosters, opponents' rosters, and free agents to figure out how to improve their team. The fact is, a mid-tier tight end who racks up 14 points one week is highly, *highly* unlikely to maintain such a pace (14 points times 16 weeks equals 224--or 21% more than Gronk scored all last season).
With that in mind, here are some players whose fantastic Week 1 performances have, essentially, no bearing on future performance:
QB Nick Foles -- Week 1's 8th highest scoring QB lacks the personnel and skills to be anywhere close to near-elite. Any of you owning him in 2-QB leagues should consider trading him now. Six of his final seven games are brutal: @Bal, @Cin, Ari, Det, @Sea, @SF. He won't be a top 18 QB when this season ends, and could fall outside the top 24.
RB Bishop Sankey -- On pace to blow DeMarco Murray's 2014 production out of the water, Sankey very well could be better than I expected this season, due in large part to a sharp upgrade at QB. But I'm not buying him as a top 20 RB. Terrance West should continue cutting into his workload, and the eventual return of David Cobb means Sankey has little room for regression if he wants to take over the backfield. He's a huge sell-high RB to an RB-needy opponent.
WR Tavon Austin -- I don't live in a world where Austin is a top 10 WR. No offense to the 3rd-year pro, but he has yet to prove that he's much more than a gadget guy--highly athletic, yet lacking the ability to serve as a regular contributor. That he touched the ball only six times Week 1 is indicative of his role. His ESPN fantasy league ownership has jumped 300% this week to 16.2% overall. That's 16.2% too high.
TE Darren Fells -- Those stuck with Owen Daniels as their tight end might be tempted to grab Fells. But the 29-year-old--playing in only his second NFL season--did more in Week 1 than in 10 games last year. He's splitting time with TE Jermaine Gresham and is the sixth or seventh option on offense. The top 6 fantasy tight end will eventually be the top 26 tight end.