With the season starting up tonight, it's a good time to recap a few big issues this site has covered this preseason:
(1) The fantasy scoring gap between QBs and flex players will widen this year vs. previous years, as the new extra point rule (15 yards farther than before) will lead to many more two-point conversion attempts. Similarly, the scoring gap between flex players and DSTs/kickers will widen. If you're keeping track at home, this is the breakdown of biggest boost (compared to previous years) to zero boost, creating a minor shift in how each position should be valued:
(a) QB (biggest boost)
(b) WR
(c) RB
(d) TE
(e) DST and K (no boost)
(2) Among all top 10 positional players, roughly half won't end up being top 10 fantasy scorers this year. If you can successfully predict one or two outliers at each position, it often means the difference between failure and a championship.
(3) Last year's stats are useful only when conditions are static. Major conditions include:
(a) Health
(b) Skill
(c) Depth Chart
(d) Personnel (teammates)
(e) Coaching Philosophy
Conditions are, essentially, never static. So the question becomes, how dramatically have conditions changed, and what impact might they have on each player's performance? It's why Andy Dalton's QB-26 ADP is ridiculously shortsighted (he was the fifth highest QB fantasy scorer in 2013, when conditions more closely mirrored today's reality than what we saw in 2014). And it's why there's no way Drew Brees (QB-5 ADP) will meet or exceed those unrealistic expectations.
(4) Injuries equal opportunities. My top 250 (will release the final version before tonight's kickoff) will be outdated by midnight. In most circumstances (Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin), we never see it coming. In others (Victor Cruz), we know there's risk when picking them. But regardless of predictability, the adverse impact of injuries can be overcome. Replacements are not always or often better than the originals, but at minimum they can stem the bleeding until better options present themselves. Points will be scored by someone; those "someones" are available in bunches every week.
(1) The fantasy scoring gap between QBs and flex players will widen this year vs. previous years, as the new extra point rule (15 yards farther than before) will lead to many more two-point conversion attempts. Similarly, the scoring gap between flex players and DSTs/kickers will widen. If you're keeping track at home, this is the breakdown of biggest boost (compared to previous years) to zero boost, creating a minor shift in how each position should be valued:
(a) QB (biggest boost)
(b) WR
(c) RB
(d) TE
(e) DST and K (no boost)
(2) Among all top 10 positional players, roughly half won't end up being top 10 fantasy scorers this year. If you can successfully predict one or two outliers at each position, it often means the difference between failure and a championship.
(3) Last year's stats are useful only when conditions are static. Major conditions include:
(a) Health
(b) Skill
(c) Depth Chart
(d) Personnel (teammates)
(e) Coaching Philosophy
Conditions are, essentially, never static. So the question becomes, how dramatically have conditions changed, and what impact might they have on each player's performance? It's why Andy Dalton's QB-26 ADP is ridiculously shortsighted (he was the fifth highest QB fantasy scorer in 2013, when conditions more closely mirrored today's reality than what we saw in 2014). And it's why there's no way Drew Brees (QB-5 ADP) will meet or exceed those unrealistic expectations.
(4) Injuries equal opportunities. My top 250 (will release the final version before tonight's kickoff) will be outdated by midnight. In most circumstances (Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin), we never see it coming. In others (Victor Cruz), we know there's risk when picking them. But regardless of predictability, the adverse impact of injuries can be overcome. Replacements are not always or often better than the originals, but at minimum they can stem the bleeding until better options present themselves. Points will be scored by someone; those "someones" are available in bunches every week.