One of my first posts this preseason was about the NFL rule change governing extra points--how moving the kick back 15 yards would lead to a sharp increase in two-point conversions. This, in turn, on average, would increase the fantasy point gap between QBs and flex players:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/863017187079595
According to this ESPN article, we're seeing the early stages of this shift. It's not yet happening as dramatically as I anticipated, but the Steelers are a case study on how it could significantly impact fantasy production:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13723921/ben-roethlisberger-says-pittsburgh-steelers-keep-going-2-point-conversions
In the Steelers' case, 13% of Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy points through two games have come through the two-point conversion. That's huge, especially when considering no other Steeler has contributed to more than one conversion. The league itself has a 53% accuracy rate through two weeks compared to 36% this time last season.
Meanwhile, predictably, extra point accuracy has dropped from 99% to 94%. Sure, some teams will continue to go for one nearly every time; their game plan and kicking prowess make it the right option in nearly every situation. But teams whose kickers are historically under 90% from 32-33 yards need to consider what Pittsburgh is doing: practicing the two-point play every day and running it to perfection.
I believe this trend will continue upward this season, making participating teams' QBs, realistically, 5-10% more valuable than they used to be.
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/863017187079595
According to this ESPN article, we're seeing the early stages of this shift. It's not yet happening as dramatically as I anticipated, but the Steelers are a case study on how it could significantly impact fantasy production:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/13723921/ben-roethlisberger-says-pittsburgh-steelers-keep-going-2-point-conversions
In the Steelers' case, 13% of Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy points through two games have come through the two-point conversion. That's huge, especially when considering no other Steeler has contributed to more than one conversion. The league itself has a 53% accuracy rate through two weeks compared to 36% this time last season.
Meanwhile, predictably, extra point accuracy has dropped from 99% to 94%. Sure, some teams will continue to go for one nearly every time; their game plan and kicking prowess make it the right option in nearly every situation. But teams whose kickers are historically under 90% from 32-33 yards need to consider what Pittsburgh is doing: practicing the two-point play every day and running it to perfection.
I believe this trend will continue upward this season, making participating teams' QBs, realistically, 5-10% more valuable than they used to be.