As most of you know, each preseason I produce "bold predictions." In 2013 and 2014, I offered 10 each preseason, and ended up getting 14 of 20 right. Picks like Antonio Brown being a top 7 WR in 2013 (when he was ranked no higher than the 20s by, literally, every expert), and last year all but guaranteeing that Toby Gerhart wouldn't be a top 30 RB.
These picks often solicit some form of rebuke, which is good: It means they're truly challenging assumptions and serving as differentiators--a key ingredient to winning fantasy titles.
This year I'm upping it to 50 bold predictions. Attached is where we left things off about a week ago, when Leonard Hankerson was added to the list. (And note that Lorenzo Taliaferro is crossed out. His injury means he might need to be replaced on this list before Week 1.)
Predictions #46 and 47 are tandem calls. They concern the Redskins' backfield. Alfred Morris's usage, yards, and yards per carry declined between 2012--his rookie season--and 2013. All three categories declined further in 2014, when he had only one 100-yard rushing performance.
This preseason he's looked pedestrian. The offensive line is not very good. Washington will be playing from behind a fair amount. He's seen all this before. No doubt, on a different team or at a different time, Morris once again would be an RB workhorse.
But the arrival of Matt Jones--who's looked fresher, faster, and more agile than Morris this summer--changes the dynamics. By Week 8, this team will have little to play for. Morris is a free agent next season, and surely will command a nice pay raise. But I doubt Washington will pay him. I believe the 'Skins will turn increasingly to Jones, giving him an audition to see if the rookie can become their running back of the future.
With that said, Morris's RB-15 ADP is highly unrealistic. He won't be among the top 25 at his position. And Jones (RB-63 ADP) will be a top 45 running back, combining a relatively slow start to the season with a flex-option-worthy second half.
These picks often solicit some form of rebuke, which is good: It means they're truly challenging assumptions and serving as differentiators--a key ingredient to winning fantasy titles.
This year I'm upping it to 50 bold predictions. Attached is where we left things off about a week ago, when Leonard Hankerson was added to the list. (And note that Lorenzo Taliaferro is crossed out. His injury means he might need to be replaced on this list before Week 1.)
Predictions #46 and 47 are tandem calls. They concern the Redskins' backfield. Alfred Morris's usage, yards, and yards per carry declined between 2012--his rookie season--and 2013. All three categories declined further in 2014, when he had only one 100-yard rushing performance.
This preseason he's looked pedestrian. The offensive line is not very good. Washington will be playing from behind a fair amount. He's seen all this before. No doubt, on a different team or at a different time, Morris once again would be an RB workhorse.
But the arrival of Matt Jones--who's looked fresher, faster, and more agile than Morris this summer--changes the dynamics. By Week 8, this team will have little to play for. Morris is a free agent next season, and surely will command a nice pay raise. But I doubt Washington will pay him. I believe the 'Skins will turn increasingly to Jones, giving him an audition to see if the rookie can become their running back of the future.
With that said, Morris's RB-15 ADP is highly unrealistic. He won't be among the top 25 at his position. And Jones (RB-63 ADP) will be a top 45 running back, combining a relatively slow start to the season with a flex-option-worthy second half.