On the news that Tom Brady's four-game suspension’s been overturned, he moves up from my #17 QB to #15. Most of you likely believe he’s a no-brainer top 10 guy. But I’ve written a number of times why and how his passing abilities have regressed. Time is catching up to him. There are too many other rising QB stars with higher upsides.
The key to making bold predictions is anticipating when reality trumps conventional wisdom. Not saying I can see the future. Not saying I'm right every time (historically hit about two-thirds of bold picks). But we only need to look at last season:
Brady averaged four TD passes per game in weeks 6-9. Even if we eliminate his abridged Week 17 appearance, he averaged only 1.5 TD passes in his other 11 games. What he did in weeks 6-9 was nothing short of incredible. But those were outlier games. In reality, he continued to regress on passes beyond 10 yards. And the Pats' running game became more solidified when LeGarrette Blount was acquired.
This is how I see it. Looking forward to all the debate that might follow.
The key to making bold predictions is anticipating when reality trumps conventional wisdom. Not saying I can see the future. Not saying I'm right every time (historically hit about two-thirds of bold picks). But we only need to look at last season:
Brady averaged four TD passes per game in weeks 6-9. Even if we eliminate his abridged Week 17 appearance, he averaged only 1.5 TD passes in his other 11 games. What he did in weeks 6-9 was nothing short of incredible. But those were outlier games. In reality, he continued to regress on passes beyond 10 yards. And the Pats' running game became more solidified when LeGarrette Blount was acquired.
This is how I see it. Looking forward to all the debate that might follow.