I'm running out of time to finalize my top 50 bold predictions. As mentioned yesterday, four changes are needed. Here they are:
(1) WR Chris Conley replaces RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (injured): Conley (WR-101 ADP) will be a top 45 WR in the Chiefs' final eight games. Right now he's #4 on the depth chart. But he's a physical freak who should leap-frog Jason Avant and Albert Wilson to eventually become Alex Smith's #3 receiving target--not great considering this is a run-first offense, but good enough if you play in a 3-WR league with a flex spot. Conley can and will be flex-relevant in the second half of this season.
(2) QB Ryan Fitzpatrick replaces WR Randall Cobb (adjusted expectations based on Jordy Nelson's injury): Fitzpatrick (QB-32 ADP) will be a top 20 QB, keeping the starting job even after normal starter Geno Smith's broken jaw heals. In two-QB leagues, he'll be a viable every week starter. He has 10 multi-TD games in his last 20 starts, and should be good for 3,400+ yards and 25+ TDs.
(3) WR Allen Hurns replaces WR Cody Latimer (adjusted expectations based on poor preseason): Hurns (WR-80 ADP) will be a top 45 WR. His ADP is painfully low, with no bearing on reality. Hurns is Jacksonville’s #2 wideout, period. WR Marqise Lee can’t get healthy, and aside from TE Julius Thomas (whenever he returns), there’s no one besides Allen Robinson who can challenge for targets. Blake Bortles should improve in his second season, giving Hurns enough 60-yard games and TD opportunities to warrant flex status most weeks.
(4) RB DeMarco Murray replaces TE Ladarius Green (adjusted expectations based on poor preseason): Murray (RB-8 ADP) will not be a top 15 RB. I’ve written a lot about Murray, particularly earlier this summer. History has shown that anytime an RB gets 400+ carries in a season, the next year either the wheels come off, or there’s a relatively sharp regression. Murray’s 392 carries and 449 total touches in 2014 will hinder him this year. It’s why the Eagles grabbed RB Ryan Mathews as insurance: They don’t want to overwork Murray the way the Cowboys did. It’s simply not sustainable. Expect less than 1,100 total yards and less than seven TDs.
(5) Additionally, with Ladarius Green out of the picture (predictions-wise), I’ve modified my Antonio Gates pick, as it used to compare him with Green. Now it’s a stand-alone prediction, suggesting that although his TE ADP is 12 for the full season, his post-suspension numbers—when projected out to a full season—won’t place him among the top 12.
The full, final breakdown is attached. At season's end, I'll walk through how they turned out.
(1) WR Chris Conley replaces RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (injured): Conley (WR-101 ADP) will be a top 45 WR in the Chiefs' final eight games. Right now he's #4 on the depth chart. But he's a physical freak who should leap-frog Jason Avant and Albert Wilson to eventually become Alex Smith's #3 receiving target--not great considering this is a run-first offense, but good enough if you play in a 3-WR league with a flex spot. Conley can and will be flex-relevant in the second half of this season.
(2) QB Ryan Fitzpatrick replaces WR Randall Cobb (adjusted expectations based on Jordy Nelson's injury): Fitzpatrick (QB-32 ADP) will be a top 20 QB, keeping the starting job even after normal starter Geno Smith's broken jaw heals. In two-QB leagues, he'll be a viable every week starter. He has 10 multi-TD games in his last 20 starts, and should be good for 3,400+ yards and 25+ TDs.
(3) WR Allen Hurns replaces WR Cody Latimer (adjusted expectations based on poor preseason): Hurns (WR-80 ADP) will be a top 45 WR. His ADP is painfully low, with no bearing on reality. Hurns is Jacksonville’s #2 wideout, period. WR Marqise Lee can’t get healthy, and aside from TE Julius Thomas (whenever he returns), there’s no one besides Allen Robinson who can challenge for targets. Blake Bortles should improve in his second season, giving Hurns enough 60-yard games and TD opportunities to warrant flex status most weeks.
(4) RB DeMarco Murray replaces TE Ladarius Green (adjusted expectations based on poor preseason): Murray (RB-8 ADP) will not be a top 15 RB. I’ve written a lot about Murray, particularly earlier this summer. History has shown that anytime an RB gets 400+ carries in a season, the next year either the wheels come off, or there’s a relatively sharp regression. Murray’s 392 carries and 449 total touches in 2014 will hinder him this year. It’s why the Eagles grabbed RB Ryan Mathews as insurance: They don’t want to overwork Murray the way the Cowboys did. It’s simply not sustainable. Expect less than 1,100 total yards and less than seven TDs.
(5) Additionally, with Ladarius Green out of the picture (predictions-wise), I’ve modified my Antonio Gates pick, as it used to compare him with Green. Now it’s a stand-alone prediction, suggesting that although his TE ADP is 12 for the full season, his post-suspension numbers—when projected out to a full season—won’t place him among the top 12.
The full, final breakdown is attached. At season's end, I'll walk through how they turned out.
