On his sports radio show last night, Tim Murray asked me whether Rob Gronkowski was worth a first round pick. As you can see on previous draft boards, he's long been valued as a late mid-to-late second rounder. But in the interview, I was more pessimistic about Gronk than I would have expected.
Here's a guy who hasn’t played all 16 games since 2011, missing 44% of the Patriots' contests from 2012 to 2013. He remains a greater injury risk than nearly every other TE in the league, having recovered from four or five surgeries during his NFL career. Is this someone you want in the first round, or even the second?
Generously, he has a 50-50 chance to play all 16 games. Jimmy Garoppolo is throwing to him in four of those games, which means it's hard to expect any 100-yard, 1-TD games during that stretch. Then Tom Brady returns--an aging legend who can no longer throw the deep ball; he completed 47% of his passes last year beyond 10 yards--the same as Ryan Fitzpatrick and worse than Teddy Bridgewater.
True, Gronk can free himself up to catch balls 5-8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and then take off. And he remains a fantastic red zone target. I'm not calling him anything but the #1 tight end in fantasy this year.
But--*but*--drafting him early is a bigger risk than drafting any other top 30 player early. The reward is there. And the bust is there--more possible in Gronk's case than in any of these other top 30 guys.
I've preached many times before: We should draft based on high ceilings, not high floors. Yet Gronk's case is unique because the perception is that at his best, he's so much better than any other TE. That's absolutely true. But we've only seen his best in two of five NFL seasons. In the other three he's averaged 643 yards and eight TDs.
That's why I'm no longer betting on Gronk in the second round.
Here's a guy who hasn’t played all 16 games since 2011, missing 44% of the Patriots' contests from 2012 to 2013. He remains a greater injury risk than nearly every other TE in the league, having recovered from four or five surgeries during his NFL career. Is this someone you want in the first round, or even the second?
Generously, he has a 50-50 chance to play all 16 games. Jimmy Garoppolo is throwing to him in four of those games, which means it's hard to expect any 100-yard, 1-TD games during that stretch. Then Tom Brady returns--an aging legend who can no longer throw the deep ball; he completed 47% of his passes last year beyond 10 yards--the same as Ryan Fitzpatrick and worse than Teddy Bridgewater.
True, Gronk can free himself up to catch balls 5-8 yards beyond the line of scrimmage and then take off. And he remains a fantastic red zone target. I'm not calling him anything but the #1 tight end in fantasy this year.
But--*but*--drafting him early is a bigger risk than drafting any other top 30 player early. The reward is there. And the bust is there--more possible in Gronk's case than in any of these other top 30 guys.
I've preached many times before: We should draft based on high ceilings, not high floors. Yet Gronk's case is unique because the perception is that at his best, he's so much better than any other TE. That's absolutely true. But we've only seen his best in two of five NFL seasons. In the other three he's averaged 643 yards and eight TDs.
That's why I'm no longer betting on Gronk in the second round.