Every injury, scheme change, and depth chart shift can have modest-to-seismic impacts on fantasy players. Yesterday's season-long injury to Shaun Suisham might seem largely irrelevant. But that's not the case.
In early June I posted a three-part piece on the impact the new extra point distance (32-33 yard kick vs. a 17-18 yarder) likely will have on fantasy stats across all offensive positions. I proposed that because kickers are (naturally) a bit less accurate from 30-35 yards than they are close in, the rule change will prompt teams to go for the two-point conversion much more often this year:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/862270663820914
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/862650163782964
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/863017187079595
In the past three seasons, teams have gone for two only 5% of the time. With the extra point now being a bit more risky, I believe it'll move the scales somewhat. And as I showed in these articles, QBs stand to gain the most--by far--than any other fantasy position.
Here's where Suisham comes in. As a Steeler, he's hit 34-of-36 from 30-39 yards (94%). By contrast, from that same distance range, newly signed kicker Garrett Hartley owns a career mark of 27-for-35 (77%). It stands to reason that if Hartley doesn't improve this year, Pittsburgh is more likely to go for two after a touchdown than they would have with Suisham kicking.
The Steelers had 43 TDs last season. They went for two on four occasions, converting on only one. They were 1-for-2 in each of the prior two seasons. The NFL as a whole has averaged a 50% success rate on conversions the past few years, so it's realistic to believe Pittsburgh can achieve that rate this year.
Whereas the two-point conversion has had a negligible impact on Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy numbers historically, this year--with the highly inaccurate Hartley kicking--it's realistic to assume Pittsburgh's rate of going for two after a TD will increase from 7% (last season's 4-of-43) to 38% (let's say 18-of-47). Of those 18, let's say they connect on the league average of 50% (nine total). I showed in the articles that in the past three seasons, QBs were involved on successful two-point plays 78% of the time. So that would give Big Ben seven two-point conversions.
14 more fantasy points in 2014 would have bumped Ben's points by nearly 5%.
So Suisham's injury is not a seismic shift for anyone except people like me who banked on drafting Suisham with my list pick and reaping the benefits. But on a smaller-yet-meaningful level, yes, his injury impacts every fantasy-point-tallying Steeler by giving them varying degrees of bumps vs. guys on the Patriots, Colts, and other teams with highly accurate 32-33 yard kickers.
In early June I posted a three-part piece on the impact the new extra point distance (32-33 yard kick vs. a 17-18 yarder) likely will have on fantasy stats across all offensive positions. I proposed that because kickers are (naturally) a bit less accurate from 30-35 yards than they are close in, the rule change will prompt teams to go for the two-point conversion much more often this year:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/862270663820914
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/862650163782964
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/863017187079595
In the past three seasons, teams have gone for two only 5% of the time. With the extra point now being a bit more risky, I believe it'll move the scales somewhat. And as I showed in these articles, QBs stand to gain the most--by far--than any other fantasy position.
Here's where Suisham comes in. As a Steeler, he's hit 34-of-36 from 30-39 yards (94%). By contrast, from that same distance range, newly signed kicker Garrett Hartley owns a career mark of 27-for-35 (77%). It stands to reason that if Hartley doesn't improve this year, Pittsburgh is more likely to go for two after a touchdown than they would have with Suisham kicking.
The Steelers had 43 TDs last season. They went for two on four occasions, converting on only one. They were 1-for-2 in each of the prior two seasons. The NFL as a whole has averaged a 50% success rate on conversions the past few years, so it's realistic to believe Pittsburgh can achieve that rate this year.
Whereas the two-point conversion has had a negligible impact on Ben Roethlisberger's fantasy numbers historically, this year--with the highly inaccurate Hartley kicking--it's realistic to assume Pittsburgh's rate of going for two after a TD will increase from 7% (last season's 4-of-43) to 38% (let's say 18-of-47). Of those 18, let's say they connect on the league average of 50% (nine total). I showed in the articles that in the past three seasons, QBs were involved on successful two-point plays 78% of the time. So that would give Big Ben seven two-point conversions.
14 more fantasy points in 2014 would have bumped Ben's points by nearly 5%.
So Suisham's injury is not a seismic shift for anyone except people like me who banked on drafting Suisham with my list pick and reaping the benefits. But on a smaller-yet-meaningful level, yes, his injury impacts every fantasy-point-tallying Steeler by giving them varying degrees of bumps vs. guys on the Patriots, Colts, and other teams with highly accurate 32-33 yard kickers.