Don't draft an RB with an tenuous hold on the starting job. The best drafting is where you maximize upside while minimizing risk. Each season, six, 10, or more RBs lose their starting jobs--some due to injury, but often due to poor play (or better play from their backup). Examining most preseason rankings last season, only about 15 to 16 of the top 40 RBs (38%-40%) were of any value during the fantasy playoffs.
Grabbing a not-long-for-this-fantasy-world RB in the eighth round won't make your playoff roster any stronger. So don't make things harder on you by drafting or picking up players with a low likelihood of retaining their starting gig all season.
RBs I'm avoiding this preseason include:
(1) Isaiah Crowell -- Duke Johnson and/or Terrance West will, at the very least, split time with Crowell by Week 3. Johnson arguably is the most talented in the group, but is only now getting healthy. Crowell's ADP (RB33) is nowhere close to where he'll end up.
(2) Rashad Jennings -- How is his RB ADP still in the top 25? Why does an oft-injured 30-year-old RB who hasn't had more than 163 carries in a season--and who hasn't looked impressive since 2010--continue to be drafted in the sixth or seventh round? Backup Andre Wiliams didn't prove it last season, but reportedly he's worked hard this offseason, including on improving his atrocious pass-catching ability. Jennings won't give you more than 700 yards and five TDs, and is more likely to produce 400-500 and three TDs. Look elsewhere for your #2 RB or flex option.
(3) Joique Bell -- This 30-year-old's (yes, he's 30) RB ADP is a ridiculous 26. Some famous experts rank him in the top 20. Don't believe any of it. Bell is a wasted pick. Last year's numbers across 15 games (almost 1,200 total yards and eight TDs) are the reason statistics are occasionally worthless indicators of future fantasy production. Bell and his 3.9 YPC wouldn't have earned 257 touches last season if Detroit had had anyone else to go to. Reggie Bush kept getting hurt. Theo Riddick is a passing back. The Lions didn't draft Ameer Abdullah to serve as a handcuff. Bell will retreat to 5-8 touches-per-game duties as early as Week 1, and those opportunities could dwindle further as the year goes on.
So again, don't settle for mediocrity. Don't settle for a short-term fix. If one of these guys falls into your lap in the eighth round, let them keep falling.
Grabbing a not-long-for-this-fantasy-world RB in the eighth round won't make your playoff roster any stronger. So don't make things harder on you by drafting or picking up players with a low likelihood of retaining their starting gig all season.
RBs I'm avoiding this preseason include:
(1) Isaiah Crowell -- Duke Johnson and/or Terrance West will, at the very least, split time with Crowell by Week 3. Johnson arguably is the most talented in the group, but is only now getting healthy. Crowell's ADP (RB33) is nowhere close to where he'll end up.
(2) Rashad Jennings -- How is his RB ADP still in the top 25? Why does an oft-injured 30-year-old RB who hasn't had more than 163 carries in a season--and who hasn't looked impressive since 2010--continue to be drafted in the sixth or seventh round? Backup Andre Wiliams didn't prove it last season, but reportedly he's worked hard this offseason, including on improving his atrocious pass-catching ability. Jennings won't give you more than 700 yards and five TDs, and is more likely to produce 400-500 and three TDs. Look elsewhere for your #2 RB or flex option.
(3) Joique Bell -- This 30-year-old's (yes, he's 30) RB ADP is a ridiculous 26. Some famous experts rank him in the top 20. Don't believe any of it. Bell is a wasted pick. Last year's numbers across 15 games (almost 1,200 total yards and eight TDs) are the reason statistics are occasionally worthless indicators of future fantasy production. Bell and his 3.9 YPC wouldn't have earned 257 touches last season if Detroit had had anyone else to go to. Reggie Bush kept getting hurt. Theo Riddick is a passing back. The Lions didn't draft Ameer Abdullah to serve as a handcuff. Bell will retreat to 5-8 touches-per-game duties as early as Week 1, and those opportunities could dwindle further as the year goes on.
So again, don't settle for mediocrity. Don't settle for a short-term fix. If one of these guys falls into your lap in the eighth round, let them keep falling.