Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
Barring something unexpected these next few weeks, we're finished with the AFC. Let's kick off the NFC with three guys in the West. If you've been reading this blog, none of them should be a surprise.
(23) Vernon Davis -- TE16 ADP
Prediction: Top 5 TE
My boldest TE pick this preseason, Davis is a guy I've been touting since June. Coming off an atrocious season and entering a contract year, this guy has two elite TE1 seasons under his belt. He'll be the second or third receiving option in San Francisco--a team that will be playing from behind often. His current ADP is ridiculously shortsighted. With an overall ADP of 155, he's available at the end of most drafts. Imagine landing a 900+ yard, 6+ TD TE at the end of your draft. It puts you at an extraordinary competitive advantage, where you can grab an elite or near-elite RB in the first round, Luck or Rodgers in the second, and then pile up RBs and WRs for nearly all of the next 8-10 rounds. This year, Davis will be your ticket to a title, and no one else in your league knows it.
(24) Carlos Hyde -- RB18 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 30 RB
There's no doubt Hyde is San Francisco's most talented RB. But drafting him anywhere before the seventh round is a huge mistake. He won't creep up into RB1 territory. He won't be the RB2 most people expect. Frankly, he'll be lucky to post RB3 numbers. Last year's 4.0 YPC won't improve with departures of offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. Pro Football Focus ranked this line ninth overall last year and fifth in run blocking. Hyde is looking at 3.5 to 3.7 YPC, and as he struggles, look for some increased competition from Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter, and/or rookie Mike Davis. Hyde will be lucky to rack up 700 yards and four scores.
(25) Brian Quick -- WR65 ADP
Prediction: Top 40 WR
I was high on Quick last preseason, as I am with most teams’ #1 receivers. On balance, I like guys who are targeted more than any other teammate. Most #1 receivers tally at least 900 yards and five TDs. Quick is primed for this level of production, and then some. In 6½ healthy games last year, his full-season projected stats would have equaled 923 yards and seven scores. And that was primarily with backup QB Austin Davis throwing to him. Quick is a steal in almost every draft--a WR3/4 that everyone can use at some point.
Barring something unexpected these next few weeks, we're finished with the AFC. Let's kick off the NFC with three guys in the West. If you've been reading this blog, none of them should be a surprise.
(23) Vernon Davis -- TE16 ADP
Prediction: Top 5 TE
My boldest TE pick this preseason, Davis is a guy I've been touting since June. Coming off an atrocious season and entering a contract year, this guy has two elite TE1 seasons under his belt. He'll be the second or third receiving option in San Francisco--a team that will be playing from behind often. His current ADP is ridiculously shortsighted. With an overall ADP of 155, he's available at the end of most drafts. Imagine landing a 900+ yard, 6+ TD TE at the end of your draft. It puts you at an extraordinary competitive advantage, where you can grab an elite or near-elite RB in the first round, Luck or Rodgers in the second, and then pile up RBs and WRs for nearly all of the next 8-10 rounds. This year, Davis will be your ticket to a title, and no one else in your league knows it.
(24) Carlos Hyde -- RB18 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 30 RB
There's no doubt Hyde is San Francisco's most talented RB. But drafting him anywhere before the seventh round is a huge mistake. He won't creep up into RB1 territory. He won't be the RB2 most people expect. Frankly, he'll be lucky to post RB3 numbers. Last year's 4.0 YPC won't improve with departures of offensive linemen Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis. Pro Football Focus ranked this line ninth overall last year and fifth in run blocking. Hyde is looking at 3.5 to 3.7 YPC, and as he struggles, look for some increased competition from Reggie Bush, Kendall Hunter, and/or rookie Mike Davis. Hyde will be lucky to rack up 700 yards and four scores.
(25) Brian Quick -- WR65 ADP
Prediction: Top 40 WR
I was high on Quick last preseason, as I am with most teams’ #1 receivers. On balance, I like guys who are targeted more than any other teammate. Most #1 receivers tally at least 900 yards and five TDs. Quick is primed for this level of production, and then some. In 6½ healthy games last year, his full-season projected stats would have equaled 923 yards and seven scores. And that was primarily with backup QB Austin Davis throwing to him. Quick is a steal in almost every draft--a WR3/4 that everyone can use at some point.