Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
The average drafter makes huge mistakes overreaching for some guys and entirely ignoring others. The savvy drafter knows better. It's all about winning each round. If you can grab a guy in round 10 everyone thinks is a WR4--but you know he's likely to be at least a WR3--then you've probably won or come close to winning that round. Mirror that behavior for all 14 / 16 / however many picks, and you've got a team that can do serious damage.
With that in mind, continuing with the NFC North . . .
(38) Terrance Williams -- WR50 ADP
Prediction: Top 30 WR
Going big on Williams despite his second half collapse last season. He scored six times in the first seven games, and went on to catch only 12 balls from Week 9 to Week 17. A lot of people think second-half Williams is the guy we're going to see this season. I'm in the opposite camp: He's a WR2/3 who should regain his footing as the Cowboys' #2 receiving target in what should be a more pass-friendly offense.
(39) Darren McFadden -- RB35 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 50 RB
I'll admit it: A couple years ago I got McFadden in an auction draft. Wasn't my intention. I was trying to drive up his price. Lesson learned. Last preseason when most experts were hyping up McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew in Oakland's backfield, this site was pushing readers to draft Latavius Murray.
So it shouldn't be surprising that this preseason I'm stupefied at how many drafters think McFadden can serve as their RB3/flex. Really? A month or two I wrote on this blog that "McFadden will not rush for more than 400 yards this season--or any future season for that matter." Forget the Cowboys’ vaunted offensive line. Run DMC hasn’t exceeded 3.4 YPC since 2011, and aside from last season’s anomaly, he’s missed 30% of his games since joining the league. Even if you're in a 20-team, 30-round league, I could name a dozen fourth-string RBs with more upside.
(40) Victor Cruz -- WR33 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 45 WR
There are two Cruz camps: One side believes he'll return to fantasy respectability--if not excellence--and the other side believes his skills have diminished too much to be an every week starter. I'm in the latter camp. Cruz is coming off a patellar tendon injury that, combined with his humbling 2013 season, makes him one of the riskiest WRs in the draft. His ADP suggests around 800 yards and five TDs. Doable? Sure, if he stays healthy. But it's not likely. He's no guarantee to even play Week 1, and he's certainly no lock to be Eli Manning's #2 target. This is a WR4 with downside. Past success is not enough to warrant rostering him.
The average drafter makes huge mistakes overreaching for some guys and entirely ignoring others. The savvy drafter knows better. It's all about winning each round. If you can grab a guy in round 10 everyone thinks is a WR4--but you know he's likely to be at least a WR3--then you've probably won or come close to winning that round. Mirror that behavior for all 14 / 16 / however many picks, and you've got a team that can do serious damage.
With that in mind, continuing with the NFC North . . .
(38) Terrance Williams -- WR50 ADP
Prediction: Top 30 WR
Going big on Williams despite his second half collapse last season. He scored six times in the first seven games, and went on to catch only 12 balls from Week 9 to Week 17. A lot of people think second-half Williams is the guy we're going to see this season. I'm in the opposite camp: He's a WR2/3 who should regain his footing as the Cowboys' #2 receiving target in what should be a more pass-friendly offense.
(39) Darren McFadden -- RB35 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 50 RB
I'll admit it: A couple years ago I got McFadden in an auction draft. Wasn't my intention. I was trying to drive up his price. Lesson learned. Last preseason when most experts were hyping up McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew in Oakland's backfield, this site was pushing readers to draft Latavius Murray.
So it shouldn't be surprising that this preseason I'm stupefied at how many drafters think McFadden can serve as their RB3/flex. Really? A month or two I wrote on this blog that "McFadden will not rush for more than 400 yards this season--or any future season for that matter." Forget the Cowboys’ vaunted offensive line. Run DMC hasn’t exceeded 3.4 YPC since 2011, and aside from last season’s anomaly, he’s missed 30% of his games since joining the league. Even if you're in a 20-team, 30-round league, I could name a dozen fourth-string RBs with more upside.
(40) Victor Cruz -- WR33 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 45 WR
There are two Cruz camps: One side believes he'll return to fantasy respectability--if not excellence--and the other side believes his skills have diminished too much to be an every week starter. I'm in the latter camp. Cruz is coming off a patellar tendon injury that, combined with his humbling 2013 season, makes him one of the riskiest WRs in the draft. His ADP suggests around 800 yards and five TDs. Doable? Sure, if he stays healthy. But it's not likely. He's no guarantee to even play Week 1, and he's certainly no lock to be Eli Manning's #2 target. This is a WR4 with downside. Past success is not enough to warrant rostering him.