Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
The average drafter makes huge mistakes overreaching for some guys and entirely ignoring others. The savvy drafter knows better. It's all about winning each round. If you can grab a guy in round 10 everyone thinks is a WR4--but you know he's likely to be at least a WR3--then you've probably won or come close to winning that round. Mirror that behavior for all 14 / 16 / however many picks, and you've got a team that can do serious damage.
With that in mind, continuing with the NFC North . . .
(35) Randall Cobb -- WR9 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 18 WR
In his first 36 NFL games, Cobb racked up 13 TDs. Last season he picked up 12 more. That's an unsustainable bump, even in a high-powered offense like the Packers. I've been writing for a while that RB Eddie Lacy (13 TDs in 2014) has legitimate 20-TD potential in 2015. WR Davante Adams (3 TDs in 2014) should double that total this year. TE Richard Rodgers (2 TDs in 2014) could triple that total this season. There's no doubt Cobb is a gifted football player, and would be the #1 receiver on scores of NFL teams. But Green Bay has more good scoring options this year, and that puts his ceiling at around 1,050 yards and 8-9 TDs.
(36) Richard Rodgers -- TE32 ADP
Prediction: Top 20 TE
There's not much benefit to drafting the 20th best TE unless you're in a Draft Masters league ("best ball"). But I think the largely ignored Rodgers will, *at minimum*, be this season's 20th best fantasy TE. His upside is 12th to 14th. So you 14-16 team leaguers out there, if you're not sold on my constant push for Vernon Davis, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, and Tyler Eifert, then take a flyer on Rodgers with your last pick, and walk away with a decent shot at 550+ yards and 6+ TDs.
(37) Joique Bell -- RB28 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 40 RB
Here's what I wrote about Bell earlier this summer, when Ameer Abdullah's ADP was worse than Bell's:
"My hunch is that by August, Abdullah will be the first Lion RB off the board in most leagues. It’s too early to know how involved he’ll be in the offense or whether he’ll reach RB2 levels. But with Bell recovering from surgeries on his knee and Achilles’, Abdullah will get every opportunity to earn his playing time."
Today, Abdullah remains the better bet in Detroit's backfield, and the fantasy community is increasingly catching on. Bell's back-to-back 3.9 YPC seasons don't inspire confidence. Neither does his being sidelined with injuries. I'm predicting Bell will be largely irrelevant this season, making him undraftable in essentially any league.
The average drafter makes huge mistakes overreaching for some guys and entirely ignoring others. The savvy drafter knows better. It's all about winning each round. If you can grab a guy in round 10 everyone thinks is a WR4--but you know he's likely to be at least a WR3--then you've probably won or come close to winning that round. Mirror that behavior for all 14 / 16 / however many picks, and you've got a team that can do serious damage.
With that in mind, continuing with the NFC North . . .
(35) Randall Cobb -- WR9 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 18 WR
In his first 36 NFL games, Cobb racked up 13 TDs. Last season he picked up 12 more. That's an unsustainable bump, even in a high-powered offense like the Packers. I've been writing for a while that RB Eddie Lacy (13 TDs in 2014) has legitimate 20-TD potential in 2015. WR Davante Adams (3 TDs in 2014) should double that total this year. TE Richard Rodgers (2 TDs in 2014) could triple that total this season. There's no doubt Cobb is a gifted football player, and would be the #1 receiver on scores of NFL teams. But Green Bay has more good scoring options this year, and that puts his ceiling at around 1,050 yards and 8-9 TDs.
(36) Richard Rodgers -- TE32 ADP
Prediction: Top 20 TE
There's not much benefit to drafting the 20th best TE unless you're in a Draft Masters league ("best ball"). But I think the largely ignored Rodgers will, *at minimum*, be this season's 20th best fantasy TE. His upside is 12th to 14th. So you 14-16 team leaguers out there, if you're not sold on my constant push for Vernon Davis, Austin Sefarian-Jenkins, and Tyler Eifert, then take a flyer on Rodgers with your last pick, and walk away with a decent shot at 550+ yards and 6+ TDs.
(37) Joique Bell -- RB28 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 40 RB
Here's what I wrote about Bell earlier this summer, when Ameer Abdullah's ADP was worse than Bell's:
"My hunch is that by August, Abdullah will be the first Lion RB off the board in most leagues. It’s too early to know how involved he’ll be in the offense or whether he’ll reach RB2 levels. But with Bell recovering from surgeries on his knee and Achilles’, Abdullah will get every opportunity to earn his playing time."
Today, Abdullah remains the better bet in Detroit's backfield, and the fantasy community is increasingly catching on. Bell's back-to-back 3.9 YPC seasons don't inspire confidence. Neither does his being sidelined with injuries. I'm predicting Bell will be largely irrelevant this season, making him undraftable in essentially any league.