Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
We continue with the AFC West, kicking off with a guy who's the most undervalued RB, hands down:
(18) Knile Davis -- RB54 ADP
Prediction: Top 30 RB
Most drafters and nearly every expert looks at Davis and thinks (a) he's not much more than a handcuff, and (b) he's averaged only 3.5 YPC in two NFL seasons. But we need to look beyond these numbers. Davis has proven he can get into the end zone, scoring 10 rushing TDs on only 204 career carries and adding another through the air. Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Jamaal Charles' carries have steadily declined since 2012. Is Charles still an elite RB? Sure, when he's getting 20-22 touches per game. I believe Kansas City will be conservative with their All-Pro RB, limiting him to 16-18 touches per game as Davis ups his touches-per-game from 9.4 in 2014 to somewhere around 11-13. That makes Davis a must-own player. And if Charles gets hurt, Davis has the ability to be an RB1 overnight, meaning anyone who ignores him on draft today is leaving money on the table.
(19) Antonio Gates -- TE12 ADP
Prediction: Will score fewer fantasy points than TE Ladarius Green from Week 5 to Week 17
A top 4 fantasy TE from 2004 to 2010, Gates posted progressively worse per-game numbers each year from 2011 to 2013. Then last season he was the #2 fantasy TE and #31 overall flex option—an incredible feat for a 34-year-old arguably on the downside of his career. Whether or not you believe his PED violation contributed to his gaudy 2014 stats, let’s look beyond the numbers: Gates averaged 51 yards per game—good, but not elite. The difference was his 12 scores—tied for the fourth most receiving TDs in the NFL. His TDs are not sustainable. When he returns from suspension, Ladarius Green will have earned, at minimum, a 50-50 split with Gates at TE. Danny Woodhead (six receiving TDs in 2013 before missing nearly all of 2014) will get his red zone touches. Rookie RB Melvin Gordon will be able to succeed near the goal line where Branden Oliver, Donald Brown, and Ronnie Brown frequently failed in '14, and Keenan Allen's 4-TD debacle last season will be a distant memory. All told, Gates' days as a TE1 are over, and when he returns in Week 5, he won't score as many fantasy points as Green the rest of the way.
(20) Ladarius Green -- TE24 ADP
Prediction: Top 14 TE
Not much more needs to be said about Green, except that he needs to be owned in all 14+ team leagues. Many Charger fans and fantasy competitors have been waiting for Green to get the green light. In weeks 1-4, he'll do enough to be picked up in most leagues. Get him in the draft if you have bench space; he'll be fantastic trade bait this season if you've got a better option, and you missed the boat on a near-elite guy, he'll be a solid low-end TE1 you can get on the cheap.
We continue with the AFC West, kicking off with a guy who's the most undervalued RB, hands down:
(18) Knile Davis -- RB54 ADP
Prediction: Top 30 RB
Most drafters and nearly every expert looks at Davis and thinks (a) he's not much more than a handcuff, and (b) he's averaged only 3.5 YPC in two NFL seasons. But we need to look beyond these numbers. Davis has proven he can get into the end zone, scoring 10 rushing TDs on only 204 career carries and adding another through the air. Meanwhile, the 28-year-old Jamaal Charles' carries have steadily declined since 2012. Is Charles still an elite RB? Sure, when he's getting 20-22 touches per game. I believe Kansas City will be conservative with their All-Pro RB, limiting him to 16-18 touches per game as Davis ups his touches-per-game from 9.4 in 2014 to somewhere around 11-13. That makes Davis a must-own player. And if Charles gets hurt, Davis has the ability to be an RB1 overnight, meaning anyone who ignores him on draft today is leaving money on the table.
(19) Antonio Gates -- TE12 ADP
Prediction: Will score fewer fantasy points than TE Ladarius Green from Week 5 to Week 17
A top 4 fantasy TE from 2004 to 2010, Gates posted progressively worse per-game numbers each year from 2011 to 2013. Then last season he was the #2 fantasy TE and #31 overall flex option—an incredible feat for a 34-year-old arguably on the downside of his career. Whether or not you believe his PED violation contributed to his gaudy 2014 stats, let’s look beyond the numbers: Gates averaged 51 yards per game—good, but not elite. The difference was his 12 scores—tied for the fourth most receiving TDs in the NFL. His TDs are not sustainable. When he returns from suspension, Ladarius Green will have earned, at minimum, a 50-50 split with Gates at TE. Danny Woodhead (six receiving TDs in 2013 before missing nearly all of 2014) will get his red zone touches. Rookie RB Melvin Gordon will be able to succeed near the goal line where Branden Oliver, Donald Brown, and Ronnie Brown frequently failed in '14, and Keenan Allen's 4-TD debacle last season will be a distant memory. All told, Gates' days as a TE1 are over, and when he returns in Week 5, he won't score as many fantasy points as Green the rest of the way.
(20) Ladarius Green -- TE24 ADP
Prediction: Top 14 TE
Not much more needs to be said about Green, except that he needs to be owned in all 14+ team leagues. Many Charger fans and fantasy competitors have been waiting for Green to get the green light. In weeks 1-4, he'll do enough to be picked up in most leagues. Get him in the draft if you have bench space; he'll be fantastic trade bait this season if you've got a better option, and you missed the boat on a near-elite guy, he'll be a solid low-end TE1 you can get on the cheap.