Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
Continuing through the NFC, there are a couple guys I intended to place on this list. But in the past few weeks their ADPs have moved much closer to where I've had them, making my predictions fairly ordinary. So we'll jump past them and focus on the guys who remain sharply under- and overvalued.
(26) Jimmy Graham -- TE2 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 5 TE
Of 42 experts listed on Fantasy Pros, zero place Graham outside the top 5. They see a perennial elite TE who doesn't need Drew Brees to thrive. I see an opportunity . . . to avoid him in favor of comparable TEs you can land in rounds 10-14.
It comes down to offensive systems. Graham had 124 targets last year in an offense that saw 33 passing TDs. By contrast, no Seahawk receiver has cracked 100 targets with Russell Wilson at the helm—ever--and Wilson's never thrown more than 26 TDs in a season. Take any player in one system and put him in an entirely different system, and what changes? Generally, not the system. Graham’s a product of skill, yes, but also of a throw-first / throw-often approach that put the Saints in the top 4 in passing yards in each of the past nine seasons. How has Seattle fared in three seasons under Russell Wilson? 27th, 26th, and 27th in passing yards. Stay away from Graham unless he falls to you in the seventh round. But he won't, so simply avoid him and focus instead on high-upside RBs and WRs.
(27) Cam Newton -- QB9 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 14 QB
Cam's ADP has dropped from 7 to 9 in the past month, but he's still squarely in the QB1 camp--a big mistake. He simply doesn't have the weapons to amass much more than 3,500 passing yards and around 20 passing TDs; once again, once you get past Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, there's a steep drop-off in receiving talent. And while his rushing numbers should improve from last year, those hoping for a return to his rookie season's production (706 yards and 14 TDs) will be greatly disappointed. There are too many QB1-upside guys this season to waste a ninth or 10th round pick on Cam.
(28) Jonathan Stewart -- RB20 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 30 RB
When he got the chance to start last season, Stewart showed he deserved to get 20+ carries per game. But for a full season? I'm not so sure. That's no knock on Stewart's skills, but rather on his durability. He couldn't stay healthy in 2012 or in 2013 and hasn't rushed more than 178 times in a season since 2009. As a featured back, he's a liability at his current ADP. Predicting an average of 14-16 rushes per game for about 50-70 yards, plus a handful (four or five) TDs. That is, if he stays healthy. There's no way he's cracking the top 30.
Continuing through the NFC, there are a couple guys I intended to place on this list. But in the past few weeks their ADPs have moved much closer to where I've had them, making my predictions fairly ordinary. So we'll jump past them and focus on the guys who remain sharply under- and overvalued.
(26) Jimmy Graham -- TE2 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 5 TE
Of 42 experts listed on Fantasy Pros, zero place Graham outside the top 5. They see a perennial elite TE who doesn't need Drew Brees to thrive. I see an opportunity . . . to avoid him in favor of comparable TEs you can land in rounds 10-14.
It comes down to offensive systems. Graham had 124 targets last year in an offense that saw 33 passing TDs. By contrast, no Seahawk receiver has cracked 100 targets with Russell Wilson at the helm—ever--and Wilson's never thrown more than 26 TDs in a season. Take any player in one system and put him in an entirely different system, and what changes? Generally, not the system. Graham’s a product of skill, yes, but also of a throw-first / throw-often approach that put the Saints in the top 4 in passing yards in each of the past nine seasons. How has Seattle fared in three seasons under Russell Wilson? 27th, 26th, and 27th in passing yards. Stay away from Graham unless he falls to you in the seventh round. But he won't, so simply avoid him and focus instead on high-upside RBs and WRs.
(27) Cam Newton -- QB9 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 14 QB
Cam's ADP has dropped from 7 to 9 in the past month, but he's still squarely in the QB1 camp--a big mistake. He simply doesn't have the weapons to amass much more than 3,500 passing yards and around 20 passing TDs; once again, once you get past Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen, there's a steep drop-off in receiving talent. And while his rushing numbers should improve from last year, those hoping for a return to his rookie season's production (706 yards and 14 TDs) will be greatly disappointed. There are too many QB1-upside guys this season to waste a ninth or 10th round pick on Cam.
(28) Jonathan Stewart -- RB20 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 30 RB
When he got the chance to start last season, Stewart showed he deserved to get 20+ carries per game. But for a full season? I'm not so sure. That's no knock on Stewart's skills, but rather on his durability. He couldn't stay healthy in 2012 or in 2013 and hasn't rushed more than 178 times in a season since 2009. As a featured back, he's a liability at his current ADP. Predicting an average of 14-16 rushes per game for about 50-70 yards, plus a handful (four or five) TDs. That is, if he stays healthy. There's no way he's cracking the top 30.