Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
Today we'll start (and likely end) our journey through the AFC South.
(12) Frank Gore -- RB15 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 25 RB
Admittedly I’ve been wrong about Gore the past couple of years, believing we’d witness a sharp decline once he hit 30. Instead, the decline has been negligible. That’s about to change. For years he’s run behind an elite offensive line in San Francisco. The Colts’ line is pedestrian by comparison. At the near-ancient RB age of 32, Gore's running out of time. Could he produce high-end RB2 numbers again? Sure. But Indy signed him because they didn’t have a reliable RB in last season’s playoffs. Don’t expect his usual 16-18 carries per game. Instead we’ll see 13-15, a negligible role in the passing game, and under 4.0 YPC, culminating in less than 850 yards and less and seven scores.
(13) Josh Robinson -- NR ADP
Prediction: Top 60 RB, will score double-digit fantasy points at least three times
The rookie sixth-round draft pick has more upside than any other Gore backup, making him an important player to target late in your draft, particularly in this explosive offense. If Gore gets hurt--or even when Gore's resting on the sidelines--Robinson will get the opportunity to show the Colts whether he's starting material. I'm banking on at least a few RB2 weeks, which sounds crazy given he's no lock to earn a roster spot. But the confluence of Indy's ability to get down the field, Gore's age, and limited backfield resources gives Robinson the potential to be one of the draft's biggest RB steals.
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(14) Julius Thomas -- TE6 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 12 TE
As I mentioned with Jimmy Graham last week, beware of players who move from a superior offense to an inferior one. Drafting Thomas at his current ADP is a trap: It looks good from a distance, but it's actually a wasted pick. Thomas has scored 24 TDs in his last 27 games as a member of one of the most elite offenses in recent NFL history. That production is not sustainable in Jacksonville. Not even close. He’s averaged only 47 yards per game during his dominant 2013 and 2014 campaigns, and it’s doubtful he averages much more in his new surroundings. Expect 500-700 yards, 4-5 scores, and at least a couple of missed games due to injury.
Today we'll start (and likely end) our journey through the AFC South.
(12) Frank Gore -- RB15 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 25 RB
Admittedly I’ve been wrong about Gore the past couple of years, believing we’d witness a sharp decline once he hit 30. Instead, the decline has been negligible. That’s about to change. For years he’s run behind an elite offensive line in San Francisco. The Colts’ line is pedestrian by comparison. At the near-ancient RB age of 32, Gore's running out of time. Could he produce high-end RB2 numbers again? Sure. But Indy signed him because they didn’t have a reliable RB in last season’s playoffs. Don’t expect his usual 16-18 carries per game. Instead we’ll see 13-15, a negligible role in the passing game, and under 4.0 YPC, culminating in less than 850 yards and less and seven scores.
(13) Josh Robinson -- NR ADP
Prediction: Top 60 RB, will score double-digit fantasy points at least three times
The rookie sixth-round draft pick has more upside than any other Gore backup, making him an important player to target late in your draft, particularly in this explosive offense. If Gore gets hurt--or even when Gore's resting on the sidelines--Robinson will get the opportunity to show the Colts whether he's starting material. I'm banking on at least a few RB2 weeks, which sounds crazy given he's no lock to earn a roster spot. But the confluence of Indy's ability to get down the field, Gore's age, and limited backfield resources gives Robinson the potential to be one of the draft's biggest RB steals.
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(14) Julius Thomas -- TE6 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 12 TE
As I mentioned with Jimmy Graham last week, beware of players who move from a superior offense to an inferior one. Drafting Thomas at his current ADP is a trap: It looks good from a distance, but it's actually a wasted pick. Thomas has scored 24 TDs in his last 27 games as a member of one of the most elite offenses in recent NFL history. That production is not sustainable in Jacksonville. Not even close. He’s averaged only 47 yards per game during his dominant 2013 and 2014 campaigns, and it’s doubtful he averages much more in his new surroundings. Expect 500-700 yards, 4-5 scores, and at least a couple of missed games due to injury.