Top 50 Bold Preseason Predictions:
For those who didn't hear, yesterday Arizona officially signed not-quite-retired RB Chris Johnson. It's a sign that the Cardinals don't trust Andre Ellington and David Johnson to carry the load all season. We don't yet know what role CJ<1K will play, but he's now on the top 250 list (link below and JPG attached), while Ellington and D. Johnson take slight-to-moderate hits 'til this all shakes out:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1unKYnhsOKRbmfJFuG5STh9YE223e5qe2wmAzvAQ048s/edit?usp=sharing
Now let's talk about yet another Johnson:
(42) Charles Johnson -- WR40 ADP
Prediction: Top 25 WR
Johnson's poor ADP is an oversight. A 2+ month oversight that will be corrected soon after the regular season begins. In a vacuum, last year's numbers (475 yards, 2 TDs) look uninspiring. But consider that nearly all of that production occurred from weeks 11 to 17. Over a full season, these final seven games would have projected to 949 yards and five scores.
Don't let WR Mike Wallace's WR30 ADP mislead you. Johnson will lead this team in receiving yards and receiving TDs. While Johnson's overall ADP is 104, on my draft board he's #56, deserving of a fifth to sixth round pick. You should be able to land him in the seventh or eighth, making him an easy steal.
(43) Eagles -- DST7 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 12 DST
The Eagles are overdrafted largely because of their incredible production last season, when they finished second among all fantasy DSTs and scored more points than guys like Golden Tate and DeAndre Hopkins. But their 11 TDs are what jumps out at me most. Defensive and special team touchdowns are no doubt earned, but they're not a predictor of future TDs. Change that 2014 total to the league average of three TDs, and the vaunted Eagles DST would have finished 15th--tied with the middling Steelers. Philly has a good defense with solid upside. But I'm not touching them in 12-team leagues.
For those who didn't hear, yesterday Arizona officially signed not-quite-retired RB Chris Johnson. It's a sign that the Cardinals don't trust Andre Ellington and David Johnson to carry the load all season. We don't yet know what role CJ<1K will play, but he's now on the top 250 list (link below and JPG attached), while Ellington and D. Johnson take slight-to-moderate hits 'til this all shakes out:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1unKYnhsOKRbmfJFuG5STh9YE223e5qe2wmAzvAQ048s/edit?usp=sharing
Now let's talk about yet another Johnson:
(42) Charles Johnson -- WR40 ADP
Prediction: Top 25 WR
Johnson's poor ADP is an oversight. A 2+ month oversight that will be corrected soon after the regular season begins. In a vacuum, last year's numbers (475 yards, 2 TDs) look uninspiring. But consider that nearly all of that production occurred from weeks 11 to 17. Over a full season, these final seven games would have projected to 949 yards and five scores.
Don't let WR Mike Wallace's WR30 ADP mislead you. Johnson will lead this team in receiving yards and receiving TDs. While Johnson's overall ADP is 104, on my draft board he's #56, deserving of a fifth to sixth round pick. You should be able to land him in the seventh or eighth, making him an easy steal.
(43) Eagles -- DST7 ADP
Prediction: Not a top 12 DST
The Eagles are overdrafted largely because of their incredible production last season, when they finished second among all fantasy DSTs and scored more points than guys like Golden Tate and DeAndre Hopkins. But their 11 TDs are what jumps out at me most. Defensive and special team touchdowns are no doubt earned, but they're not a predictor of future TDs. Change that 2014 total to the league average of three TDs, and the vaunted Eagles DST would have finished 15th--tied with the middling Steelers. Philly has a good defense with solid upside. But I'm not touching them in 12-team leagues.