Sixth in rushing yards. Third in passing yards. Tied for third in TD-INT differential. First in passing TDs. First in passing attempts.
That’s how Andrew Luck (#1 QB ADP, #22 overall) stacked up against all NFL QBs in 2014. He’s 25 years old and getting better, and deserves to be the first QB off the board.
A case could be made for Aaron Rodgers, but if I’m drafting in the early-to-mid second round, I’m grabbing Luck instead for many reasons, including:
(1) The Colts’ defense is worse than the Packers’. Green Bay’s more likely to, on occasion, play conservatively in the fourth quarter.
(2) The Colts’ running game is worse than the Packers’. Eddie Lacy’s a top 3 RB in his prime, and in 2014 scored 38% more fantasy points than the 32-year-old Frank Gore—the league’s active career rushing attempts leader.
Surrounded by a talented receiving corps, Luck will take another step forward with 5,000+ yards and 44+ TDs. In standard scoring leagues, he could rack up 400 fantasy points, which last year would have been 21% more points than every QB except Aaron Rodgers (342 points). That’s dominance you can’t find at any other position.
Admittedly I’ve been wrong about Gore (#15 RB ADP) the past couple of years, believing we’d witness a sharp decline once he hit 30. Instead, the decline has been negligible. That’s about to change. For years he’s run behind an elite offensive line in San Francisco. The Colts’ line is pedestrian by comparison. Gore is running out of time. Could he produce high-end RB2 numbers again? Yes, he could. But they signed him because they didn’t have a reliable RB in last season’s playoffs. Don’t expect 18 carries a game. Instead, we’ll see 13-15, culminating in less than 850 yards and less and seven scores—meaning he won’t be a top 20 RB.
Aside from adequate change-of-pace RB Daniel Herron (#60 RB ADP), there’s seemingly NFL-ready rookie Josh Robinson (unrated ADP). Robinson would be a fantastic final-round get in any draft. If Gore gets hurt, Robinson could become the lead back in the NFL’s highest powered offense. That’s too promising to ignore.
Don’t overthink T.Y. Hilton (#12 WR ADP). Last year’s 10th highest fantasy scoring WR will flourish regardless of how many WR2s and 3s he lines up with. New teammate Andre Johnson has grown on me this summer. Last year’s letdown was due not so much to age-inducing decline, but to ineffective Texan QBs. He’s locked into the top 25 with a decent chance to earn his #18 WR ADP.
The Colts didn’t absolutely need to draft Phillip Dorsett (#72 WR ADP) to maintain one of the NFL’s best passing attacks. But they got him, and now he’s battling Donte Moncrief (#61 WR ADP) for the team’s #3 WR job. This is a depth chart battle to watch. The winner could be a top 50 WR.
As for Dwayne Allen (#11 TE ADP) and Coby Fleener (#15 TE ADP), there are other TEs I can grab at the end of the draft who should produce, at minimum, comparable numbers. Allen’s 8-TD outburst in 2014, for example, won’t be repeated. Yes, he’s a great red zone target, but more teammates will be competing for red zone targets this year. I’d rather leave such boom-bust players to someone else.
That’s how Andrew Luck (#1 QB ADP, #22 overall) stacked up against all NFL QBs in 2014. He’s 25 years old and getting better, and deserves to be the first QB off the board.
A case could be made for Aaron Rodgers, but if I’m drafting in the early-to-mid second round, I’m grabbing Luck instead for many reasons, including:
(1) The Colts’ defense is worse than the Packers’. Green Bay’s more likely to, on occasion, play conservatively in the fourth quarter.
(2) The Colts’ running game is worse than the Packers’. Eddie Lacy’s a top 3 RB in his prime, and in 2014 scored 38% more fantasy points than the 32-year-old Frank Gore—the league’s active career rushing attempts leader.
Surrounded by a talented receiving corps, Luck will take another step forward with 5,000+ yards and 44+ TDs. In standard scoring leagues, he could rack up 400 fantasy points, which last year would have been 21% more points than every QB except Aaron Rodgers (342 points). That’s dominance you can’t find at any other position.
Admittedly I’ve been wrong about Gore (#15 RB ADP) the past couple of years, believing we’d witness a sharp decline once he hit 30. Instead, the decline has been negligible. That’s about to change. For years he’s run behind an elite offensive line in San Francisco. The Colts’ line is pedestrian by comparison. Gore is running out of time. Could he produce high-end RB2 numbers again? Yes, he could. But they signed him because they didn’t have a reliable RB in last season’s playoffs. Don’t expect 18 carries a game. Instead, we’ll see 13-15, culminating in less than 850 yards and less and seven scores—meaning he won’t be a top 20 RB.
Aside from adequate change-of-pace RB Daniel Herron (#60 RB ADP), there’s seemingly NFL-ready rookie Josh Robinson (unrated ADP). Robinson would be a fantastic final-round get in any draft. If Gore gets hurt, Robinson could become the lead back in the NFL’s highest powered offense. That’s too promising to ignore.
Don’t overthink T.Y. Hilton (#12 WR ADP). Last year’s 10th highest fantasy scoring WR will flourish regardless of how many WR2s and 3s he lines up with. New teammate Andre Johnson has grown on me this summer. Last year’s letdown was due not so much to age-inducing decline, but to ineffective Texan QBs. He’s locked into the top 25 with a decent chance to earn his #18 WR ADP.
The Colts didn’t absolutely need to draft Phillip Dorsett (#72 WR ADP) to maintain one of the NFL’s best passing attacks. But they got him, and now he’s battling Donte Moncrief (#61 WR ADP) for the team’s #3 WR job. This is a depth chart battle to watch. The winner could be a top 50 WR.
As for Dwayne Allen (#11 TE ADP) and Coby Fleener (#15 TE ADP), there are other TEs I can grab at the end of the draft who should produce, at minimum, comparable numbers. Allen’s 8-TD outburst in 2014, for example, won’t be repeated. Yes, he’s a great red zone target, but more teammates will be competing for red zone targets this year. I’d rather leave such boom-bust players to someone else.