Four teams remain in our preseason, team-by-team fantasy breakdown: the Colts, Patriots, Seahawks, and . . . Broncos.
Three preseasons ago, I thought the 36-year-old Peyton Manning--recovering from his fourth neck surgery in two years—wouldn’t get through the 2012 season unscathed. Like many people, I’m a huge Peyton fan. He’s meant, and continues to mean, a lot to the game on and off the field. But I wanted him to retire rather than risk permanent damage.
Over these past three seasons, Peyton—armed with an array of talented receivers and rushers—has played some of the best football of his life. Can he do it again while fast approaching his 40th birthday? His QB ADP (3rd) suggests he should be picked around the 40th to 45th pick in standard scoring leagues. Drafters must recognize that, while he’s never missed a game midseason, each year increases the odds that the decreasingly mobile (not that he ever was mobile) Manning will get hurt. Yes, it’s true for all QBs. But age slows recovery times. A two-week injury to Russell Wilson likely will be more costly to Peyton. For that reason, Peyton drafters should strongly consider adding underrated ADP guys like Andy Dalton (24th) or Jay Cutler (22nd) at the end of your draft, both of whom I believe will return low-end QB1 production. At his best, Manning will be an elite performer. But with each passing year, a backup becomes more valuable.
Few receivers are more dependable than Demaryius Thomas (#4 WR ADP), who’s posted top 5 WR numbers in each of the past three years. After starting slowly in 2014, after the Week 4 bye he reeled in 6+ catches--and tallied 10+ points--in all but one game. He’s a solid top 7 WR pick this season. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders (#13 WR ADP) entered last season as a borderline fantasy starter, but went on to nearly double his respectable 2013 output while serving as Peyton’s #2 target. Sanders scored the sixth most fantasy points among all WRs, and some are expecting a repeat performance. I’m not.
More than Peyton and Thomas, Sanders will be impacted by new head coach Gary Kubiak and new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, who both like to focus on the run game. Peyton and Thomas will get their fantasy points. But with Sanders recently announcing he’s moving to the slot in three-wideout sets, he’ll get fewer big-play opportunities on a team that likely will run fewer plays. I’m targeting a regression to the back end of the WR top 20—and maybe just outside it.
With Julius Thomas gone and Sanders’ numbers dipping, Cody Latimer (#53 WR ADP) is primed to be a fantasy contributor starting in Week 1. 800 yards and five scores are realistic for the heralded second-year pro who did next to nothing his rookie season, but who’s been focused on learning Denver’s playbook and is dedicated to earning #3 WR duties. You can pass on Sanders and grab Latimer and, I believe, not lose much production. In return, you can add a guy like Melvin Gordon or Brandin Cooks, who you couldn’t have landed if you’d taken Sanders.
A projected timeshare with Virgil Green (#30 TE ADP) makes Owen Daniels (#12 TE ADP) almost undraftable. When healthy, Daniels has always been a good bet for top 10 TE production. But he probably won’t get the chance this season to reach his potential this season. And going on 33 years old, he probably won’t reach that level again.
Finally, of the two 23- and two 24-year-old Denver running backs, only one is worth talking about. I don’t want to hear about Montee Ball contributing a few carries a game. Nothing against Ronnie Hillman. Juwan Thompson? You might get your chance someday. No, this preseason is all about C.J. Anderson, whose #8 RB ADP is on the conservative side. As of right now, he’s in my top 5 overall, with a bankable (barring injury) 1,400+ total yards and 12+ TDs.
Three preseasons ago, I thought the 36-year-old Peyton Manning--recovering from his fourth neck surgery in two years—wouldn’t get through the 2012 season unscathed. Like many people, I’m a huge Peyton fan. He’s meant, and continues to mean, a lot to the game on and off the field. But I wanted him to retire rather than risk permanent damage.
Over these past three seasons, Peyton—armed with an array of talented receivers and rushers—has played some of the best football of his life. Can he do it again while fast approaching his 40th birthday? His QB ADP (3rd) suggests he should be picked around the 40th to 45th pick in standard scoring leagues. Drafters must recognize that, while he’s never missed a game midseason, each year increases the odds that the decreasingly mobile (not that he ever was mobile) Manning will get hurt. Yes, it’s true for all QBs. But age slows recovery times. A two-week injury to Russell Wilson likely will be more costly to Peyton. For that reason, Peyton drafters should strongly consider adding underrated ADP guys like Andy Dalton (24th) or Jay Cutler (22nd) at the end of your draft, both of whom I believe will return low-end QB1 production. At his best, Manning will be an elite performer. But with each passing year, a backup becomes more valuable.
Few receivers are more dependable than Demaryius Thomas (#4 WR ADP), who’s posted top 5 WR numbers in each of the past three years. After starting slowly in 2014, after the Week 4 bye he reeled in 6+ catches--and tallied 10+ points--in all but one game. He’s a solid top 7 WR pick this season. Meanwhile, Emmanuel Sanders (#13 WR ADP) entered last season as a borderline fantasy starter, but went on to nearly double his respectable 2013 output while serving as Peyton’s #2 target. Sanders scored the sixth most fantasy points among all WRs, and some are expecting a repeat performance. I’m not.
More than Peyton and Thomas, Sanders will be impacted by new head coach Gary Kubiak and new offensive coordinator Rick Dennison, who both like to focus on the run game. Peyton and Thomas will get their fantasy points. But with Sanders recently announcing he’s moving to the slot in three-wideout sets, he’ll get fewer big-play opportunities on a team that likely will run fewer plays. I’m targeting a regression to the back end of the WR top 20—and maybe just outside it.
With Julius Thomas gone and Sanders’ numbers dipping, Cody Latimer (#53 WR ADP) is primed to be a fantasy contributor starting in Week 1. 800 yards and five scores are realistic for the heralded second-year pro who did next to nothing his rookie season, but who’s been focused on learning Denver’s playbook and is dedicated to earning #3 WR duties. You can pass on Sanders and grab Latimer and, I believe, not lose much production. In return, you can add a guy like Melvin Gordon or Brandin Cooks, who you couldn’t have landed if you’d taken Sanders.
A projected timeshare with Virgil Green (#30 TE ADP) makes Owen Daniels (#12 TE ADP) almost undraftable. When healthy, Daniels has always been a good bet for top 10 TE production. But he probably won’t get the chance this season to reach his potential this season. And going on 33 years old, he probably won’t reach that level again.
Finally, of the two 23- and two 24-year-old Denver running backs, only one is worth talking about. I don’t want to hear about Montee Ball contributing a few carries a game. Nothing against Ronnie Hillman. Juwan Thompson? You might get your chance someday. No, this preseason is all about C.J. Anderson, whose #8 RB ADP is on the conservative side. As of right now, he’s in my top 5 overall, with a bankable (barring injury) 1,400+ total yards and 12+ TDs.