For the first time in five or six years, Drew Brees (#5 QB ADP) was not a top 2 fantasy QB in 2014. Yes, he was a model of consistency, posting double-digit standard-league scoring in all but one game (Week 17) en route to a sixth place finish. But we know the score: No Jimmy Graham; no Kenny Stills; and Marques Colston another year older. Moreover, the acquisition of center Max Unger (via the Graham trade) and the signing of high-upside / perennial-underperformer C.J. Spiller signals a shift in offensive philosophy. The team ranked 19th in the league in rushing attempts, but were among the top 10 in rushing yards per carry. Their key to returning to the playoffs is to run it more, control the clock, and keep their lacking defense off the field.
Brandin Cooks’ healthy return will only soften the blow of Brees’ imminent decline. No, he won’t be a top 5 QB. And I’m hard-pressed to see him crack the top 10. You (possibly) heard it here first: Brees will not be a top 10 QB in 2015. I’m eyeing around 4,000 yards and 28-30 TDs, placing him in the 12th to 14th grouping. That means there’s no good reason to draft him, unless everyone in your league reads this blog and is sold on what I’m saying—in which case you can safely pick him in the 12th round to fill in for Luck on the Colts’ bye week. (Ouch.)
As many of you know, I was uber-high on two very underrated RBs last preseason: Mark Ingram and Ahmad Bradshaw. In my league versus folks from ESPN, CBS Sports, etc., I was able to wait on Ingram and Bradshaw around the 11th and 12th rounds. They helped lift me to the playoffs. If only I’d bailed on Matt Stafford sooner. . . .
When healthy, Ingram proved that he deserved RB1 status. Despite playing only 13 games, he was the 14th highest scoring RB last season. Of course, that was in 2014. He’s now likely to share a decent amount of touches with C.J. Spiller, who owns a 5.0 YPC career mark—and that includes last year’s injury-plagued 3.8 average. He’s a good bet to finish around his #26 RB ADP. Ingram was on pace for 314 touches last year. This year he’ll likely end up with 250-275. Such a 12%-20% drop-off would make Ingram a bit overrated at his current RB ADP of 15.
Of course, you can throw all that out the window if Ingram or Spiller get hurt; if either guy is given the reigns of this backfield, he’d become an unquestionable every week starter capable of 25-30 touches per game.
Before getting hurt last November around six weeks after his 21st birthday, Brandin Cooks (#16 WR ADP) was on pace for 997 total yards and 6+ TDs. It’s not too much to expect 1,100+ and 8+ TDs this year, helping him finish among the top 20 WRs. He’ll enter the season as the team’s true #1 receiving target. The sky’s the limit.
Incidentally, around six weeks after my 21st birthday, I tore cartilage in my left knee trying to juke my friend Pat Fernando in a game of one-on-one. And by “juke,” I mean stepping to one side, and then oh-so-slowly stepping to the other side.
So in case it wasn’t evident before, despite both of us getting hurt at the same period of our lives, I cannot relate in any way to Brandin Cooks.
Marques Colston’s WR ADP (44) makes him surprisingly undervalued. He was 30th among WRs last season, and should be counted on to do a little more with Graham and Stills gone. I think he’ll finishing around 33rd to 37th. And Nick Toon (#77 WR ADP) is a potential bargain pickup at the end of your draft. While he has a ways to go before becoming a fantasy starter, an injury to Cooks or Colston would make him fantasy relevant overnight.
Finally, few TEs are more overhyped than Josh Hill. Many experts place him in their top 10. His TE ADP is 13th. He’ll finish outside the top 16, making him worthless in all but those very rare (so rare I’ve never witnessed them) two-TE leagues.
Brandin Cooks’ healthy return will only soften the blow of Brees’ imminent decline. No, he won’t be a top 5 QB. And I’m hard-pressed to see him crack the top 10. You (possibly) heard it here first: Brees will not be a top 10 QB in 2015. I’m eyeing around 4,000 yards and 28-30 TDs, placing him in the 12th to 14th grouping. That means there’s no good reason to draft him, unless everyone in your league reads this blog and is sold on what I’m saying—in which case you can safely pick him in the 12th round to fill in for Luck on the Colts’ bye week. (Ouch.)
As many of you know, I was uber-high on two very underrated RBs last preseason: Mark Ingram and Ahmad Bradshaw. In my league versus folks from ESPN, CBS Sports, etc., I was able to wait on Ingram and Bradshaw around the 11th and 12th rounds. They helped lift me to the playoffs. If only I’d bailed on Matt Stafford sooner. . . .
When healthy, Ingram proved that he deserved RB1 status. Despite playing only 13 games, he was the 14th highest scoring RB last season. Of course, that was in 2014. He’s now likely to share a decent amount of touches with C.J. Spiller, who owns a 5.0 YPC career mark—and that includes last year’s injury-plagued 3.8 average. He’s a good bet to finish around his #26 RB ADP. Ingram was on pace for 314 touches last year. This year he’ll likely end up with 250-275. Such a 12%-20% drop-off would make Ingram a bit overrated at his current RB ADP of 15.
Of course, you can throw all that out the window if Ingram or Spiller get hurt; if either guy is given the reigns of this backfield, he’d become an unquestionable every week starter capable of 25-30 touches per game.
Before getting hurt last November around six weeks after his 21st birthday, Brandin Cooks (#16 WR ADP) was on pace for 997 total yards and 6+ TDs. It’s not too much to expect 1,100+ and 8+ TDs this year, helping him finish among the top 20 WRs. He’ll enter the season as the team’s true #1 receiving target. The sky’s the limit.
Incidentally, around six weeks after my 21st birthday, I tore cartilage in my left knee trying to juke my friend Pat Fernando in a game of one-on-one. And by “juke,” I mean stepping to one side, and then oh-so-slowly stepping to the other side.
So in case it wasn’t evident before, despite both of us getting hurt at the same period of our lives, I cannot relate in any way to Brandin Cooks.
Marques Colston’s WR ADP (44) makes him surprisingly undervalued. He was 30th among WRs last season, and should be counted on to do a little more with Graham and Stills gone. I think he’ll finishing around 33rd to 37th. And Nick Toon (#77 WR ADP) is a potential bargain pickup at the end of your draft. While he has a ways to go before becoming a fantasy starter, an injury to Cooks or Colston would make him fantasy relevant overnight.
Finally, few TEs are more overhyped than Josh Hill. Many experts place him in their top 10. His TE ADP is 13th. He’ll finish outside the top 16, making him worthless in all but those very rare (so rare I’ve never witnessed them) two-TE leagues.