Two of my 10 “bold” predictions last preseason related to the Redskins. As some of you warned, my Jordan Reed pick was too risky because of injury concerns. You were right. On the flip side, I stated the case for why Pierre Garcon would be a bust, despite the fact that nearly every expert site and ADPs labeled him a top 20 WR:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/719594671421848
Today his WR ADP is all the way down to 50. That’s right: 50.
Why are other people so gullible? To help people like us win.
The only way Garcon would merit a 50 is if Antonio Brown cloned himself 20 times.
Garcon’s production was nearly cut in half between 2013 and 2014. He’s too talented not to rebound, as the Redskins are (I have to believe) too smart to once again marginalize their second best receiver. I write in my book about “the rebound effect.” This is a good example of where to apply it. Last year’s 54th best fantasy WR will post top 35 WR production, joining Terrance Williams, Brian Quick, and Marvin Jones as the best WR bargains you can grab late in your draft. (In a mock draft this morning I picked all four of these WR2/3s in the 11th thru 14th rounds.)
Garcon’s more heralded counterpart, DeSean Jackson, was last year’s 16th best fantasy WR and is currently locked in at #20 in ADP. That sounds about right. He’s a boom-bust WR2, with six out of 15 games last year culminating in four points or less, and eight resulting in 12+ points.
As alluded to above, I honestly don’t know what to make of Jordan Reed, who’s as talented as any near-elite TE, but who can’t stay on the field long enough to prove it. His #27 TE ADP suggests some drafters still believe in him. But I wouldn’t recommend drafting him. Instead, track Niles Paul (consensus #31 TE), who averaged eight fantasy points per game in weeks 1-4 last season before Jordan Reed’s return cut into his numbers. I watched Paul assert himself in this offense and make some very difficult downfield catches, making me a believer that he can be a TE1—but only if Reed is on the shelf.
For you dynasty folks, keep an eye on #4 WR Ryan Grant (unranked). If DJax or Garcon get hurt, I believe Grant will earn the starting nod over Andre Roberts (consensus #121 WR).
I steered clear of Alfred Morris last year, anticipating a continued regression for various reasons, including their porous offensive line, and how frequently Washington would be playing from behind. But barring injury, there’s almost no doubt he’ll clear 250 carries, and he should remain active near the goal line (despite getting poached many times last season—although poacher Roy Helu is gone). His #13 RB ADP suggests a repeat of last year’s numbers (1,200+ total yards, eight TDs), which is very realistic.
Finally, what value would a Redskins rundown have without touching on last season’s three-ring QB circus? Colt McCoy (consensus #42 QB) had two good games and three forgettable ones. He should not regain the starting job in 2015 or, in all likelihood, ever again. But given Washington’s personnel, he might have to. And if he does, I’m starting the opposing defense. Kirk Cousins (consensus #44 QB) had four good games and two bad ones. I have no skin in the game, but it’s ridiculous that he’s ranked lowed than McCoy and was relegated to third-string status late last season. Neither guy is worth drafting or stashing, obviously, but in the right matchup, Cousins would be a solid streaming option if he were given another chance.
And then there’s Robert Griffin III, who—let the record show—is being drafted two QB spots behind Tim Tebow (ADP #27 vs. #25). That’s what it’s come to for the former rookie phenom, where injuries (and I believe confidence) have taken their toll on a once can’t-miss-franchise-QB who was acquired (via the draft) from the Rams for three first-round picks and a second rounder. Washington remains all-in on RGIII—to an extent. Yes, they recently picked up his $16.1 million, fifth-year option, but it’s only paid out if RGIII gets hurt. If he struggles early, the Redskins would be incentivized to bench him for the remainder of the season so that—barring RGIII tripping over a tuft of dirt on the sideline and breaking his ankles—they won’t be on the hook in 2016.
I actually like RGIII as a final draft pick in leagues with deep benches; if he does catch fire, he’ll have solid trade appeal playing for a team with two terrific wideouts and, thanks to their atrocious defense, the need to score in buckets. A healthy RGIII can achieve top 15 QB status. But of course, the odds are against him staying healthy.
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/719594671421848
Today his WR ADP is all the way down to 50. That’s right: 50.
Why are other people so gullible? To help people like us win.
The only way Garcon would merit a 50 is if Antonio Brown cloned himself 20 times.
Garcon’s production was nearly cut in half between 2013 and 2014. He’s too talented not to rebound, as the Redskins are (I have to believe) too smart to once again marginalize their second best receiver. I write in my book about “the rebound effect.” This is a good example of where to apply it. Last year’s 54th best fantasy WR will post top 35 WR production, joining Terrance Williams, Brian Quick, and Marvin Jones as the best WR bargains you can grab late in your draft. (In a mock draft this morning I picked all four of these WR2/3s in the 11th thru 14th rounds.)
Garcon’s more heralded counterpart, DeSean Jackson, was last year’s 16th best fantasy WR and is currently locked in at #20 in ADP. That sounds about right. He’s a boom-bust WR2, with six out of 15 games last year culminating in four points or less, and eight resulting in 12+ points.
As alluded to above, I honestly don’t know what to make of Jordan Reed, who’s as talented as any near-elite TE, but who can’t stay on the field long enough to prove it. His #27 TE ADP suggests some drafters still believe in him. But I wouldn’t recommend drafting him. Instead, track Niles Paul (consensus #31 TE), who averaged eight fantasy points per game in weeks 1-4 last season before Jordan Reed’s return cut into his numbers. I watched Paul assert himself in this offense and make some very difficult downfield catches, making me a believer that he can be a TE1—but only if Reed is on the shelf.
For you dynasty folks, keep an eye on #4 WR Ryan Grant (unranked). If DJax or Garcon get hurt, I believe Grant will earn the starting nod over Andre Roberts (consensus #121 WR).
I steered clear of Alfred Morris last year, anticipating a continued regression for various reasons, including their porous offensive line, and how frequently Washington would be playing from behind. But barring injury, there’s almost no doubt he’ll clear 250 carries, and he should remain active near the goal line (despite getting poached many times last season—although poacher Roy Helu is gone). His #13 RB ADP suggests a repeat of last year’s numbers (1,200+ total yards, eight TDs), which is very realistic.
Finally, what value would a Redskins rundown have without touching on last season’s three-ring QB circus? Colt McCoy (consensus #42 QB) had two good games and three forgettable ones. He should not regain the starting job in 2015 or, in all likelihood, ever again. But given Washington’s personnel, he might have to. And if he does, I’m starting the opposing defense. Kirk Cousins (consensus #44 QB) had four good games and two bad ones. I have no skin in the game, but it’s ridiculous that he’s ranked lowed than McCoy and was relegated to third-string status late last season. Neither guy is worth drafting or stashing, obviously, but in the right matchup, Cousins would be a solid streaming option if he were given another chance.
And then there’s Robert Griffin III, who—let the record show—is being drafted two QB spots behind Tim Tebow (ADP #27 vs. #25). That’s what it’s come to for the former rookie phenom, where injuries (and I believe confidence) have taken their toll on a once can’t-miss-franchise-QB who was acquired (via the draft) from the Rams for three first-round picks and a second rounder. Washington remains all-in on RGIII—to an extent. Yes, they recently picked up his $16.1 million, fifth-year option, but it’s only paid out if RGIII gets hurt. If he struggles early, the Redskins would be incentivized to bench him for the remainder of the season so that—barring RGIII tripping over a tuft of dirt on the sideline and breaking his ankles—they won’t be on the hook in 2016.
I actually like RGIII as a final draft pick in leagues with deep benches; if he does catch fire, he’ll have solid trade appeal playing for a team with two terrific wideouts and, thanks to their atrocious defense, the need to score in buckets. A healthy RGIII can achieve top 15 QB status. But of course, the odds are against him staying healthy.