In early June I viewed LeSean McCoy as a top 5 RB heading into the preseason. Now he’s top 15. There are two ways of looking at him. First, he’ll get carries. Rex Ryan is a fan of the run game, and the 34-year-old Fred Jackson, Bryce Brown, and Anthony Dixon pose no threat to McCoy’s workhorse role. 300+ touches should be expected for the guy who, even in a “down” 2014 season, finished 13th in RB fantasy scoring while collecting nearly 1,500 total yards on the ground.
The other way to look at McCoy is how he’ll fit into an offense that, unlike the Eagles, is not adept at moving the ball. In the last three seasons, Philadelphia has averaged the NFL’s second most first downs per game (24). Buffalo? The fourth fewest (14.7). The quarterback situation is somewhat of a mess. Receivers? A draft overreach to land Sammy Watkins . . . a fourth-team-in-four-seasons, will-we-ever-see-his-potential Percy Harvin . . . a $20-million-guaranteed middling TE in Charles Clay. And don’t forget the offensive line, which is a significant downgrade compared to the Eagles’ front five of 2014.
More often than not, scoring drives will hinge on whether McCoy (#10 RB ADP) is at his best. More often than not, he won’t be. And it won’t always be his fault. Surrounding personnel have a huge impact on player production. I think McCoy will barely crack the top 15. Grabbing him anywhere before the third round is an overreach.
E.J. Manuel (consensus 34th ranked QB) should win the starting job over Matt Cassel (consensus 38th ranked QB). Neither guy is a good option in fantasy or in real life, but Manuel has looked better this summer, and the team probably wants to see if their former first rounder can turn the corner in his third season. If you’re in a 16-team, two-QB league, he’s worth a flier. That pretty much sums up E.J. Manuel.
Sammy Watkins (#19 WR ADP) is going too early in most drafts. His 128 targets last season placed him 21st among all receivers, helping him become the 27th highest scoring fantasy WR. But he won’t come close to matching that target total in 2015 as the Bills focus more on the run game. And keep in mind that half of Watkins’ weekly performances ended with three fantasy points or less. That doesn’t mean he’ll remain this inconsistent. But it does suggest that with the arrival of more offensive weapons and a change in offensive scheme, Watkins has less room for error to become a top 20 WR. I’m placing him outside the top 25 WRs, and possibly outside the top 30.
Would you be excited drafting Percy Harvin (#45 WR ADP)? Me neither. If you’ve seen the 2011 Harvin walking around town, get him on a bus to Buffalo ASAP. Predicting three fantasy-starter-quality performances this season and 13 why-did-I-draft-him duds.
I’ll mention Robert Woods (consensus #94 WR) only because he racked up 104 targets last year and could outperform Harvin. But it won’t be good enough to merit drafting him. The same goes for Charles Clay, whose hype in some circles far outweighs his potential. Fortunately his TE ADP (#22) aligns with reality. My suggestion is to talk up Clay in the draft room and hope someone else burns a ninth round pick on him.
And you might as well talk up the whole Bills team while you’re at it.
The other way to look at McCoy is how he’ll fit into an offense that, unlike the Eagles, is not adept at moving the ball. In the last three seasons, Philadelphia has averaged the NFL’s second most first downs per game (24). Buffalo? The fourth fewest (14.7). The quarterback situation is somewhat of a mess. Receivers? A draft overreach to land Sammy Watkins . . . a fourth-team-in-four-seasons, will-we-ever-see-his-potential Percy Harvin . . . a $20-million-guaranteed middling TE in Charles Clay. And don’t forget the offensive line, which is a significant downgrade compared to the Eagles’ front five of 2014.
More often than not, scoring drives will hinge on whether McCoy (#10 RB ADP) is at his best. More often than not, he won’t be. And it won’t always be his fault. Surrounding personnel have a huge impact on player production. I think McCoy will barely crack the top 15. Grabbing him anywhere before the third round is an overreach.
E.J. Manuel (consensus 34th ranked QB) should win the starting job over Matt Cassel (consensus 38th ranked QB). Neither guy is a good option in fantasy or in real life, but Manuel has looked better this summer, and the team probably wants to see if their former first rounder can turn the corner in his third season. If you’re in a 16-team, two-QB league, he’s worth a flier. That pretty much sums up E.J. Manuel.
Sammy Watkins (#19 WR ADP) is going too early in most drafts. His 128 targets last season placed him 21st among all receivers, helping him become the 27th highest scoring fantasy WR. But he won’t come close to matching that target total in 2015 as the Bills focus more on the run game. And keep in mind that half of Watkins’ weekly performances ended with three fantasy points or less. That doesn’t mean he’ll remain this inconsistent. But it does suggest that with the arrival of more offensive weapons and a change in offensive scheme, Watkins has less room for error to become a top 20 WR. I’m placing him outside the top 25 WRs, and possibly outside the top 30.
Would you be excited drafting Percy Harvin (#45 WR ADP)? Me neither. If you’ve seen the 2011 Harvin walking around town, get him on a bus to Buffalo ASAP. Predicting three fantasy-starter-quality performances this season and 13 why-did-I-draft-him duds.
I’ll mention Robert Woods (consensus #94 WR) only because he racked up 104 targets last year and could outperform Harvin. But it won’t be good enough to merit drafting him. The same goes for Charles Clay, whose hype in some circles far outweighs his potential. Fortunately his TE ADP (#22) aligns with reality. My suggestion is to talk up Clay in the draft room and hope someone else burns a ninth round pick on him.
And you might as well talk up the whole Bills team while you’re at it.