As most of you know, I try to be very upfront about when I get things wrong. No discussion of the Ravens would be complete without highlighting Justin Forsett's shocking 2014 season. I should have caught on in September when he rushed for 6.4, 7.0, and 5.7 YPC in his first three contests. "But how could this soon-to-be 29-year-old journeyman who's never been a featured back possibly be fantasy relevant?" I wasn’t sold until the fantasy playoffs, and only then did he return to earth.
Can the soon-to-be 30-year-old Forsett meet his ADP expectations (#12 RB)? Can he match or exceed last year’s ninth-highest RB fantasy production? Common sense tells me there’s no way he can replicate the magic of last season—that defenses will adjust . . . that if he were truly a QB1-caliber RB, he would have been a featured back years ago.
Here’s why I’m willing to roll with Forsett as a solid RB2:
- He’ll be the centerpiece of an offense whose receiving game has taken a hit with the loss of Torrey Smith.
- The Ravens don’t have anyone who can realistically challenge him for the lead back role.
- His receiving yards should go up, as OC Marc Trestman wants his RBs targeted in the passing game.
- While he might once again reach 1,500 total yards, Forsett won’t score as many TDs as he did last year (eight).
Moving on, for the eighth straight season, I’m not sold on Joe Flacco (#17 QB ADP). Last year’s 13th best fantasy QB is merely a game manager who happens to play in every game (he hasn’t missed one in his entire NFL career). The points will come, but not in buckets. His ADP is spot-on, if not one or two spots on the generous side.
For about half of last season, Steve Smith Sr. rewarded fantasy owners who took a chance on the 35-year-old former All Pro, who was coming off a huge letdown in 2013. This same Steve Smith also crushed fantasy owners’ fantasy title hopes when he scored four or fewer fantasy points in six of his final eight games (not including the usually meaningless Week 17). His WR ADP (#42) is wisely conservative. That said, if 35 WRs are off the board, I’d grab him, hope for another quick start in weeks 1-4, and then trade him before the regression begins.
Barring a preseason collapse, rookie Breshad Perriman (#43 WR ADP) will start opposite Smith in Week 1. He’s a boom-bust draft pick: huge upside, and a propensity to drop balls (not to mention playing in a run-heavy offense). If I had to choose, I’d stay away. Can you imagine this guy scoring 5+ times? I can’t.
With the belief that the injured TE Dennis Pitta will not see the field this year, I can’t rationalize drafting any Ravens tight end.
So there you have it: There are teams that make your head swim with the possibilities, and there are teams with only one or two draftable players. Baltimore’s in the latter camp. Outside of Forsett and Smith, I’m steering clear, and I hope you do too.