One of my 10 bold predictions last year was that Matt Ryan would be a top 3 fantasy QB. He finished in seventh, in part because his offensive line was ravaged by injuries in the season’s first few weeks, and in part because—let’s face it—he might never become an elite fantasy force. In his past five years, he’s been a model of consistency: hasn’t missed a game, has racked up between 26 and 32 TD passes per season, has thrown for (with one exception) between 4,177 and 4,719 yards, etc.
Also consider that the Falcons averaged the third most pass attempts in the league last year. That number isn’t likely to go up.
So unless he falls outside the top 12 on draft day, I'm ignoring Ryan (#9 QB ADP) on draft day. Why settle for only “very good” when players with legit higher upside are still available? His realistic upside is no better than sixth, and that’s not enough of a bump to warrant a valuable fifth or sixth round pick.
We know Ryan’s primary receivers like we know our own mother. Julio Jones (#5 WR ADP) shook off injury concerns last year to post the eighth most WR fantasy points. And he has some room to grow. While scoring 18 times in 28 games (.64 TDs per game) his first two seasons, he scored only eight times in 20 games (.40 TDs per game) during his last two seasons. More than ever, Jones is the team’s clear #1 target. Expect 1,400+ yards and 10+ TDs as he earns his current draft position.
For the 33-year-old Roddy White, no one doubts that his best days are well behind him. Last season’s 24th best fantasy WR is current trending as the 32nd WR drafted. That’s about right. I don’t want to pick White as anything more than a middling WR3, and as alluded to above, given the choice between White and a younger guy with more upside in the sixth or seventh round, I’ll take the upside guy.
At this stage, the other three wideouts in the mix for low-to-moderate production are still battling for position. Leonard Hankerson might have an early advantage because he knows OC Kyle Shanahan’s system. And as the consensus 115th best WR, he could be a steal if he wins the slot job—or especially if White or Jones get hurt. Devin Hester (consensus #106 WR) has a perceived edge based on his name. But between the two, I’d much rather roll the dice on Hankerson. And finally there’s rookie Justin Hardy (consensus #113 WR), who has the highest upside of the Falcons’ second-tier WRs, but who also has the steepest learning curve. If he shows well this preseason and earns the #3 wideout role, I’d take him with a late round flier as an anticipated WR6+.
If you want to take a chance on any of Atlanta’s sub-middling tight ends, restrain yourself. There’s no consistency among any of the guys vying for starting duties. Jacob Tamme (consensus #32 TE) is most likely to win the job. But he’ll be lucky to catch 40 balls.
Unless there’s a drastic shift in August, Devonta Freeman (#39 RB ADP) and rookie Tevin Coleman (#28 RB ADP) probably will start the season splitting carries. But while looking good in the passing game last year, Freeman averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in a limited role. Coleman’s ceiling is much, much higher. If they do split carries, I’m passing on Freeman, because he’s more likely than not to relinquish more carries to Coleman as the season progresses. And if Coleman isn’t one of the first 30-32 RBs off the board, I’m grabbing and stashing with the hope that by the fantasy playoffs, he’s the featured back. That would make him a mid-round steal.
Also consider that the Falcons averaged the third most pass attempts in the league last year. That number isn’t likely to go up.
So unless he falls outside the top 12 on draft day, I'm ignoring Ryan (#9 QB ADP) on draft day. Why settle for only “very good” when players with legit higher upside are still available? His realistic upside is no better than sixth, and that’s not enough of a bump to warrant a valuable fifth or sixth round pick.
We know Ryan’s primary receivers like we know our own mother. Julio Jones (#5 WR ADP) shook off injury concerns last year to post the eighth most WR fantasy points. And he has some room to grow. While scoring 18 times in 28 games (.64 TDs per game) his first two seasons, he scored only eight times in 20 games (.40 TDs per game) during his last two seasons. More than ever, Jones is the team’s clear #1 target. Expect 1,400+ yards and 10+ TDs as he earns his current draft position.
For the 33-year-old Roddy White, no one doubts that his best days are well behind him. Last season’s 24th best fantasy WR is current trending as the 32nd WR drafted. That’s about right. I don’t want to pick White as anything more than a middling WR3, and as alluded to above, given the choice between White and a younger guy with more upside in the sixth or seventh round, I’ll take the upside guy.
At this stage, the other three wideouts in the mix for low-to-moderate production are still battling for position. Leonard Hankerson might have an early advantage because he knows OC Kyle Shanahan’s system. And as the consensus 115th best WR, he could be a steal if he wins the slot job—or especially if White or Jones get hurt. Devin Hester (consensus #106 WR) has a perceived edge based on his name. But between the two, I’d much rather roll the dice on Hankerson. And finally there’s rookie Justin Hardy (consensus #113 WR), who has the highest upside of the Falcons’ second-tier WRs, but who also has the steepest learning curve. If he shows well this preseason and earns the #3 wideout role, I’d take him with a late round flier as an anticipated WR6+.
If you want to take a chance on any of Atlanta’s sub-middling tight ends, restrain yourself. There’s no consistency among any of the guys vying for starting duties. Jacob Tamme (consensus #32 TE) is most likely to win the job. But he’ll be lucky to catch 40 balls.
Unless there’s a drastic shift in August, Devonta Freeman (#39 RB ADP) and rookie Tevin Coleman (#28 RB ADP) probably will start the season splitting carries. But while looking good in the passing game last year, Freeman averaged only 3.8 yards per carry in a limited role. Coleman’s ceiling is much, much higher. If they do split carries, I’m passing on Freeman, because he’s more likely than not to relinquish more carries to Coleman as the season progresses. And if Coleman isn’t one of the first 30-32 RBs off the board, I’m grabbing and stashing with the hope that by the fantasy playoffs, he’s the featured back. That would make him a mid-round steal.