The Buccaneers are team #20 on our preseason, team-by-team, fantasy football countdown. Last preseason I debated whether to place Victor Cruz or Mike Evans on my top 20 WR list. Cruz made the cut. Evans fell to #21. Bad decision.
That said, I did grab Evans in both of my leagues because he was clearly undervalued. The eventual #11 fantasy WR barely cracked the top 50 in most preseason expert rankings. I saw a rookie who looked dominant during the preseason, and whose only serious competition was a 10-year veteran (Vincent Jackson) on the verge of beginning the downside of his career.
This year, no one’s underestimating Evans. His #12 WR ADP may seem justifiable, but I wouldn’t reach for him. 43% of his 2014 production came in weeks 9-11. His 12 TDs were a fluke when you consider that the Bucs were 29th in rushing yards and 27th in rushing TDs. There was no balance to the offense. Evans accounted for 43% of the team’s offensive TDs. Vincent Jackson? 7%. None of this is sustainable. Evans should be a top 20 WR, but he’s not worth drafting at his current inflated value.
Jackson (#27 WR ADP) is also overrated. If he were ranked 50th, I’d love him as a bounce-back candidate. But as a low-end WR2, I’m very skeptical.
That leaves Louis Murphy (consensus 114th ranked WR) as the Bucs’ biggest bargain. If you believe the reports that VJax might man the slot a fair amount, Murphy should play a heavy role in this offense. Virtually everyone’s ignoring him. I won’t. As a late-round pick, you could do a lot worse than investing in a nothing-to-lose 28-year-old with WR5+ potential.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (#26 TE ADP) is also ridiculously underrated. He averaged 10.5 yards per catch in an injury-plagued rookie year and could be a terrific red zone target for QB Jameis Winston. I’m expecting around 600 yards and 4-6 scores, translating into top 16 TE production.
Winston is not quite worth his #16 QB average draft position. Talented? Yes. Will he put it all together in his rookie season? No. Foreseeing enough growing pains to make him undraftable in most leagues.
Finally, there’s Doug Martin (#34 RB ADP), who’s now three seasons removed from an earth-shattering 1,900+ rushing/receiving yards and 12 TDs. I’m ignoring backup RB Charles Sims. Martin has looked good thus far and has a clear path to becoming the dominant RB in this backfield. He could reach 300 touches and is more likely than not to shock many people, reaching top 20 RB production.
That said, I did grab Evans in both of my leagues because he was clearly undervalued. The eventual #11 fantasy WR barely cracked the top 50 in most preseason expert rankings. I saw a rookie who looked dominant during the preseason, and whose only serious competition was a 10-year veteran (Vincent Jackson) on the verge of beginning the downside of his career.
This year, no one’s underestimating Evans. His #12 WR ADP may seem justifiable, but I wouldn’t reach for him. 43% of his 2014 production came in weeks 9-11. His 12 TDs were a fluke when you consider that the Bucs were 29th in rushing yards and 27th in rushing TDs. There was no balance to the offense. Evans accounted for 43% of the team’s offensive TDs. Vincent Jackson? 7%. None of this is sustainable. Evans should be a top 20 WR, but he’s not worth drafting at his current inflated value.
Jackson (#27 WR ADP) is also overrated. If he were ranked 50th, I’d love him as a bounce-back candidate. But as a low-end WR2, I’m very skeptical.
That leaves Louis Murphy (consensus 114th ranked WR) as the Bucs’ biggest bargain. If you believe the reports that VJax might man the slot a fair amount, Murphy should play a heavy role in this offense. Virtually everyone’s ignoring him. I won’t. As a late-round pick, you could do a lot worse than investing in a nothing-to-lose 28-year-old with WR5+ potential.
Austin Sefarian-Jenkins (#26 TE ADP) is also ridiculously underrated. He averaged 10.5 yards per catch in an injury-plagued rookie year and could be a terrific red zone target for QB Jameis Winston. I’m expecting around 600 yards and 4-6 scores, translating into top 16 TE production.
Winston is not quite worth his #16 QB average draft position. Talented? Yes. Will he put it all together in his rookie season? No. Foreseeing enough growing pains to make him undraftable in most leagues.
Finally, there’s Doug Martin (#34 RB ADP), who’s now three seasons removed from an earth-shattering 1,900+ rushing/receiving yards and 12 TDs. I’m ignoring backup RB Charles Sims. Martin has looked good thus far and has a clear path to becoming the dominant RB in this backfield. He could reach 300 touches and is more likely than not to shock many people, reaching top 20 RB production.