For the first time in eons, the Dolphins have more receivers than they’ll know what to do with. When a talented young WR like Rishard Matthews won’t be much better than QB Ryan Tannehill’s seventh receiving option, it’s a sure sign that no one can truly predict how all of the fantasy scoring will shake out. But let’s give it a shot.
It all begins with Tannehill (#13 QB ADP). According to ESPN, last season’s ninth ranked fantasy scoring QB finished 27th in average yards at the catch and 31st in QBR on 20+ yard passing attempts. In other words, he thrived fantasy-wise despite owning some pretty poor peripherals. Armed with better weapons heading into 2015, I’m anticipating an uptick in TDs (he scored a pedestrian 28 times last year)—enough to make him a somewhat undervalued QB1.
Jarvis Landry (#29 WR ADP) is slightly overvalued. There’s justifiable hype about this second-year pro, but from a fantasy perspective, there are too many WR mouths to feed for Landry to land inside the top 30. Many will disagree on this, and those who do are likely severely undervaluing Kenny Stills (an insane WR ADP of 65). Worst case scenario, the 23-year-old Stills--who racked up 931 yards in 15 games last year--will be a low-end WR4, somewhere inside the top 50 at his position. Realistically, I see him as a top 35 WR who will be an absolute steal in nearly every fantasy draft—that is, if he’s even drafted.
As I often say, don’t fall victim to others’ rankings. They promise little more than mediocrity.
Greg Jennings (consensus 79th ranked WR) has demonstrated these past two years how smart the Packers were not to re-sign their former star after the 2012 season. He isn’t a reliable option, though he has the potential to be a top 60 wideout if Tannehill spreads the ball around. And rookie Devante Parker (#48 WR ADP) is going too early in most drafts. He might become a WR3 or WR4 in 2016. But a packed receiving corps will keep him off the field too often to be trusted most weeks.
Jordan Cameron (#9 TE ADP) is too risky as a TE1. Last preseason he was almost universally viewed as a top 5 TE heading into Week 1. But concussions have sidelined him each of the past three seasons. I’d rather pick a TE bargain like Vernon Davis in the last round (because he deserves to go, at worst, in the 8th) than take Cameron in the 8th round (where he deserves to go, at best, in the 11th).
In the backfield, Lamar Miller tied for ninth last year among fantasy RBs with a 5.1 YPC, despite running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. His current #18 RB ADP suggests many drafters see a moderate-to-significant regression. I disagree. The o-line has nowhere to go but up, and should thanks to some veteran signings and a solid draft pick. Miller will be a low-end RB1, closely replicating last season’s breakout production. Rookie Jay Ajayi (#59 RB ADP) could poach carries as soon as Week 1, but not nearly enough to harm Miller’s impact on your fantasy team.
It all begins with Tannehill (#13 QB ADP). According to ESPN, last season’s ninth ranked fantasy scoring QB finished 27th in average yards at the catch and 31st in QBR on 20+ yard passing attempts. In other words, he thrived fantasy-wise despite owning some pretty poor peripherals. Armed with better weapons heading into 2015, I’m anticipating an uptick in TDs (he scored a pedestrian 28 times last year)—enough to make him a somewhat undervalued QB1.
Jarvis Landry (#29 WR ADP) is slightly overvalued. There’s justifiable hype about this second-year pro, but from a fantasy perspective, there are too many WR mouths to feed for Landry to land inside the top 30. Many will disagree on this, and those who do are likely severely undervaluing Kenny Stills (an insane WR ADP of 65). Worst case scenario, the 23-year-old Stills--who racked up 931 yards in 15 games last year--will be a low-end WR4, somewhere inside the top 50 at his position. Realistically, I see him as a top 35 WR who will be an absolute steal in nearly every fantasy draft—that is, if he’s even drafted.
As I often say, don’t fall victim to others’ rankings. They promise little more than mediocrity.
Greg Jennings (consensus 79th ranked WR) has demonstrated these past two years how smart the Packers were not to re-sign their former star after the 2012 season. He isn’t a reliable option, though he has the potential to be a top 60 wideout if Tannehill spreads the ball around. And rookie Devante Parker (#48 WR ADP) is going too early in most drafts. He might become a WR3 or WR4 in 2016. But a packed receiving corps will keep him off the field too often to be trusted most weeks.
Jordan Cameron (#9 TE ADP) is too risky as a TE1. Last preseason he was almost universally viewed as a top 5 TE heading into Week 1. But concussions have sidelined him each of the past three seasons. I’d rather pick a TE bargain like Vernon Davis in the last round (because he deserves to go, at worst, in the 8th) than take Cameron in the 8th round (where he deserves to go, at best, in the 11th).
In the backfield, Lamar Miller tied for ninth last year among fantasy RBs with a 5.1 YPC, despite running behind one of the league’s worst offensive lines. His current #18 RB ADP suggests many drafters see a moderate-to-significant regression. I disagree. The o-line has nowhere to go but up, and should thanks to some veteran signings and a solid draft pick. Miller will be a low-end RB1, closely replicating last season’s breakout production. Rookie Jay Ajayi (#59 RB ADP) could poach carries as soon as Week 1, but not nearly enough to harm Miller’s impact on your fantasy team.