The Chargers are team #17 on our preseason, team-by-team, fantasy football countdown. At a time when most rankings remain fairly static, Antonio Gates’ (#7 TE ADP) recently announced four-game suspension to start the season throws a wrench in how most drafters have thus far evaluated San Diego’s players.
A top 4 fantasy TE from 2004 to 2010, Gates posted progressively worse per-game numbers each year from 2011 to 2013. Then last season he was the #2 fantasy TE and #31 overall flex option—an incredible feat for a 34-year-old arguably on the downside of his career. Whether or not you believe his PED violation contributed to his gaudy 2014 stats, let’s look beyond the numbers: Gates averaged 51 yards per game—good, but not elite. The difference was his 12 scores—tied for the fourth most receiving TDs in the NFL. His TDs are not sustainable. Here’s why:
-- Keenan Allen’s (#23 WR ADP) TD total dropped from eight to four between 2013 and 2014. He’s too talented not to rebound. 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs are likely, securing top 15 WR production.
-- Danny Woodhead (#56 RB ADP; six receiving TDs in 2013) suffered a fractured fibula in Week 3 and missed the rest of the year. He’ll score four to six times this year, returning RB4/5 value.
-- Ladarius Green (#23 TE ADP; zero TDs in 2014) will start the first four games this season and is likely to be productive enough to earn a time-share with Gates starting in Week 5. I’m sensing at least four scores for Green.
-- Melvin Gordon (#15 RB ADP) should post top 10 RB numbers and could be a mid-to-late second round steal. He’s replacing the oft-injured Ryan Mathews, who was healthy enough to play in only six games last year. With Mathews sidelined, the Chargers turned to Branden Oliver, Donald Brown, and Ronnie Brown—none of whom were reliable options.
These four factors (injuries to Woodhead and Mathews, Green’s limited role, and Allen’s sophomore slump) opened the door for Gates to thrive in 2014. While his chemistry with his longtime quarterback is undeniable, Philip Rivers will have plenty of strong options in 2015. Gates won’t be a top 15 TE overall, and he won’t post top 10 TE numbers even after returning from suspension. He isn’t worth drafting in all but the deepest leagues. Don’t trust those who tell you otherwise.
As for the remaining players, Rivers (#14 QB ADP) is valued about right, with a decent chance to finish the season as a low-end QB1. While I was high on WR Malcom Floyd last preseason, this year I’m anticipating a marked regression, making his #74 WR ADP fairly accurate. In fact, Stevie Johnson (#70) will be more productive than Floyd, worthy of a late-round flier with WR5 upside.
A top 4 fantasy TE from 2004 to 2010, Gates posted progressively worse per-game numbers each year from 2011 to 2013. Then last season he was the #2 fantasy TE and #31 overall flex option—an incredible feat for a 34-year-old arguably on the downside of his career. Whether or not you believe his PED violation contributed to his gaudy 2014 stats, let’s look beyond the numbers: Gates averaged 51 yards per game—good, but not elite. The difference was his 12 scores—tied for the fourth most receiving TDs in the NFL. His TDs are not sustainable. Here’s why:
-- Keenan Allen’s (#23 WR ADP) TD total dropped from eight to four between 2013 and 2014. He’s too talented not to rebound. 1,000+ yards and 8+ TDs are likely, securing top 15 WR production.
-- Danny Woodhead (#56 RB ADP; six receiving TDs in 2013) suffered a fractured fibula in Week 3 and missed the rest of the year. He’ll score four to six times this year, returning RB4/5 value.
-- Ladarius Green (#23 TE ADP; zero TDs in 2014) will start the first four games this season and is likely to be productive enough to earn a time-share with Gates starting in Week 5. I’m sensing at least four scores for Green.
-- Melvin Gordon (#15 RB ADP) should post top 10 RB numbers and could be a mid-to-late second round steal. He’s replacing the oft-injured Ryan Mathews, who was healthy enough to play in only six games last year. With Mathews sidelined, the Chargers turned to Branden Oliver, Donald Brown, and Ronnie Brown—none of whom were reliable options.
These four factors (injuries to Woodhead and Mathews, Green’s limited role, and Allen’s sophomore slump) opened the door for Gates to thrive in 2014. While his chemistry with his longtime quarterback is undeniable, Philip Rivers will have plenty of strong options in 2015. Gates won’t be a top 15 TE overall, and he won’t post top 10 TE numbers even after returning from suspension. He isn’t worth drafting in all but the deepest leagues. Don’t trust those who tell you otherwise.
As for the remaining players, Rivers (#14 QB ADP) is valued about right, with a decent chance to finish the season as a low-end QB1. While I was high on WR Malcom Floyd last preseason, this year I’m anticipating a marked regression, making his #74 WR ADP fairly accurate. In fact, Stevie Johnson (#70) will be more productive than Floyd, worthy of a late-round flier with WR5 upside.