Last year the Vikings were 14th in rushing yards and 14th in rushing TDs. They were middling, in large part, because Adrian Peterson played only one game. They were also middling, in small part, because Jerick McKinnon (4.8 YPC, 0 TDs) was statistically overshadowed by the lesser Matt Asiata (3.5 YPC, 9 TDs). Had McKinnon been given the reins of that backfield, I believe the team—and certainly fantasy owners—would have been better off, as McKinnon has three-down-back potential.
That said, fantasy experts far and wide believe the 30-year-old Peterson (#3 RB ADP) will pick up where he left off. Many believe he’ll be the #1 fantasy RB this year. I’m not buying it. I’m with the minority on this one: Peterson won’t finish the season in the top 7. It’s not simply about age or mileage (he had a year off to rest up). It’s about the Vikings’ future.
I believe McKinnon (with an undervalued RB ADP of 66) will snag at least a third of AP’s touches. He’ll spell Peterson from time to time on first and second downs, and he’ll be involved in the passing game. Asiata (with a ridiculously inflated RB ADP of 46) will still be around to poach a TD here and there, if not much else. It means McKinnon will start the year as a solid RB4/5 with upside. And Asiata is worthless.
Teddy Bridgewater (#18 QB ADP) will obviously be the biggest beneficiary of AP’s return. But his ADP is a bit inflated. There are a lot of guys I like in the top 20 this year—probably 25 guys if I sat down and wrote them out. Bridgewater’s not one of them. He won’t be a high-volume TD guy in his second season. Picturing around 225 yards and 1.5 TDs per game, which would be a slight uptick over last year’s numbers.
Charles Johnson (#41 WR ADP) is Minnesota’s #1 receiver. Don’t let Mike Wallace’s #31 WR ADP fool you. In the final seven weeks of 2014, Johnson amassed 415 yards and two scores, which over a full season projects out to 949 yards and five TDs. This would have placed him among the top 30 fantasy WRs, and it’s what you should expect this season: 900+ yards and 5+ TDs, making him an undervalued draft pick. Wallace, on the other hand, will regress from last year’s 862-10 line. Expect no better than 750-5, placing him just inside the top 50 WRs—in other words, not someone you want to draft at his current value.
Unless Johnson or Wallace get hurt, Jarius Wright (consensus 103rd ranked WR) is not draftable. The same goes for Cordarrelle Patterson (#64 WR ADP), who many people believe is due to break out, and who many others believe will continue to disappoint. Count me in the latter camp: The depth chart is too cluttered to give Patterson space to make good on his raw talents. He’s a WR6 unless his team role changes dramatically.
And finally, there’s Kyle Rudolph, whose TE ADP (20th) aligns with reality. After two years of people hyping a TE who scored nine times in 2012, there’s consensus that he’s no longer draftable. I strongly agree. Aside from the injury risk (he’s played in barely 50% of his team’s games these past two seasons), he’s not a yardage guy. Outside of a few red zone scores, he’ll be worthless from a fantasy perspective.
That said, fantasy experts far and wide believe the 30-year-old Peterson (#3 RB ADP) will pick up where he left off. Many believe he’ll be the #1 fantasy RB this year. I’m not buying it. I’m with the minority on this one: Peterson won’t finish the season in the top 7. It’s not simply about age or mileage (he had a year off to rest up). It’s about the Vikings’ future.
I believe McKinnon (with an undervalued RB ADP of 66) will snag at least a third of AP’s touches. He’ll spell Peterson from time to time on first and second downs, and he’ll be involved in the passing game. Asiata (with a ridiculously inflated RB ADP of 46) will still be around to poach a TD here and there, if not much else. It means McKinnon will start the year as a solid RB4/5 with upside. And Asiata is worthless.
Teddy Bridgewater (#18 QB ADP) will obviously be the biggest beneficiary of AP’s return. But his ADP is a bit inflated. There are a lot of guys I like in the top 20 this year—probably 25 guys if I sat down and wrote them out. Bridgewater’s not one of them. He won’t be a high-volume TD guy in his second season. Picturing around 225 yards and 1.5 TDs per game, which would be a slight uptick over last year’s numbers.
Charles Johnson (#41 WR ADP) is Minnesota’s #1 receiver. Don’t let Mike Wallace’s #31 WR ADP fool you. In the final seven weeks of 2014, Johnson amassed 415 yards and two scores, which over a full season projects out to 949 yards and five TDs. This would have placed him among the top 30 fantasy WRs, and it’s what you should expect this season: 900+ yards and 5+ TDs, making him an undervalued draft pick. Wallace, on the other hand, will regress from last year’s 862-10 line. Expect no better than 750-5, placing him just inside the top 50 WRs—in other words, not someone you want to draft at his current value.
Unless Johnson or Wallace get hurt, Jarius Wright (consensus 103rd ranked WR) is not draftable. The same goes for Cordarrelle Patterson (#64 WR ADP), who many people believe is due to break out, and who many others believe will continue to disappoint. Count me in the latter camp: The depth chart is too cluttered to give Patterson space to make good on his raw talents. He’s a WR6 unless his team role changes dramatically.
And finally, there’s Kyle Rudolph, whose TE ADP (20th) aligns with reality. After two years of people hyping a TE who scored nine times in 2012, there’s consensus that he’s no longer draftable. I strongly agree. Aside from the injury risk (he’s played in barely 50% of his team’s games these past two seasons), he’s not a yardage guy. Outside of a few red zone scores, he’ll be worthless from a fantasy perspective.