What a wild 10 months it’s been for Tom Brady and the Patriots. Last September 29th on Monday Night Football, the team was obliterated by the Chiefs to fall to 2-2. Many (including me) questioned whether a long, painful season awaited the 37-year-old future Hall-of-Famer. Instead, ironically, it’s been a long, painful offseason, as Brady’s been fighting to preserve a legacy that seemed immortalized after locking up Super Bowl title #4 in February.
Regardless of what you believe about Brady and "Deflategate," the 38-year-old (as of August 3rd) will not be a top 12 fantasy QB in 2015. Yes, his ADP is at #10, but I believe in the games he does play--whether it’s 12, or more if his suspension’s reduced--he won’t produce top 12 numbers. He averaged four TD passes per game in weeks 6-9 last season. Even if we eliminate his abridged Week 17 appearance, he averaged only 1.5 TD passes in his other 11 games.
One glaring area of regression is his accuracy on long throws. In 2014 his 48% completion percentage on passes beyond 10 yards was 48%--the same as Ryan Fitzpatrick and two percentage points worse than Teddy Bridgewater. Brady averaged only three throws per game beyond 20 yards and averaged less than one completion, for a season-long accuracy mark of 25%. The days of Tom Brady serving as a reliable QB1 are over.
His potential future successor, Jimmy Garoppolo (consensus #40 QB), is not worth drafting. Anyone thinking they can get by on a temporary starting QB with 27 career NFL pass attempts is looking for disappointment. Sure, Garoppolo could collect 10-15 fantasy points per game. But he’s still raw and is not worth a draft pick. As I’ve written before, grab Dalton or Cutler at the end of your draft, and you’ll be better off in weeks 1-4 and beyond.
LeGarrette Blount (#28 RB ADP) looked like a different player after his 2014 midseason acquisition from the Steelers. He averaged 4.1 YPC with two TDs in 10 games with Pittsburgh, while in New England he netted 4.7 YPC with three TDs in only five games. While Bill Belichick has a history of replacing productive RBs—whether due to fumbling or sleeping through their alarm—Blount is a good bet to be a top 25 RB.
Julian Edelman (#21 WR ADP), on the other hand, is a bit overvalued in standard scoring leagues. Last year’s 24th best WR is a throwback Brady-era #1 receiver: solid on fundamentals, makes few mistakes, and tops out at around 1,000 yards. To expect a jump into the top 20 is like expecting your cat to poop in the litter box every time. Avoid modest disappointment. Leave Edelman for someone else. Brandon LaFell (#38 WR ADP) is a different story. He was more productive than Edelman last season (22nd best WR), but doesn’t get the same love. Long underutilized in Carolina before moving to New England in 2014, LaFell has the tools to jump past Edelman this season. At his ADP, you shouldn’t hesitate to draft him as the 33rd to 35th WR off the board, and then laugh maniacally (to yourself—always to yourself).
Danny Amendola (#97 consensus WR) barely played last year and could go either way this year. So much talent, but so much risk. And as Brady’s #4 or #5 target, he’s not worth the investment, even with your last pick. Aaron Dobson (#108 consensus WR) is a better guy to track as the season begins, and should reach WR5+ status if someone gets hurt.
Rob Gronkowski is going first among TEs in every sane draft. I have no problem with that, because when healthy, no tight end is more talented. But his average overall draft position is 7th. That troubles me. For whenever Brady’s sidelined (for now, the first four weeks), expect modest numbers from Gronk. The rest of the way, yes, he’ll be great. But I’d rather draft C.J. Anderson with my seventh pick. Gronk’s coming off his first healthy season in three years, though he hasn’t played all 16 games since 2011. He remains a greater injury risk than nearly every other TE in the league, having recovered from four or five surgeries during his NFL career. Some people embrace such risk because of the obvious reward. In Gronk’s case, I won’t. On a per-game basis, he’ll be the NFL’s highest scoring TE. But I’m concerned he might not be on the field during the fantasy playoffs.
Regardless of what you believe about Brady and "Deflategate," the 38-year-old (as of August 3rd) will not be a top 12 fantasy QB in 2015. Yes, his ADP is at #10, but I believe in the games he does play--whether it’s 12, or more if his suspension’s reduced--he won’t produce top 12 numbers. He averaged four TD passes per game in weeks 6-9 last season. Even if we eliminate his abridged Week 17 appearance, he averaged only 1.5 TD passes in his other 11 games.
One glaring area of regression is his accuracy on long throws. In 2014 his 48% completion percentage on passes beyond 10 yards was 48%--the same as Ryan Fitzpatrick and two percentage points worse than Teddy Bridgewater. Brady averaged only three throws per game beyond 20 yards and averaged less than one completion, for a season-long accuracy mark of 25%. The days of Tom Brady serving as a reliable QB1 are over.
His potential future successor, Jimmy Garoppolo (consensus #40 QB), is not worth drafting. Anyone thinking they can get by on a temporary starting QB with 27 career NFL pass attempts is looking for disappointment. Sure, Garoppolo could collect 10-15 fantasy points per game. But he’s still raw and is not worth a draft pick. As I’ve written before, grab Dalton or Cutler at the end of your draft, and you’ll be better off in weeks 1-4 and beyond.
LeGarrette Blount (#28 RB ADP) looked like a different player after his 2014 midseason acquisition from the Steelers. He averaged 4.1 YPC with two TDs in 10 games with Pittsburgh, while in New England he netted 4.7 YPC with three TDs in only five games. While Bill Belichick has a history of replacing productive RBs—whether due to fumbling or sleeping through their alarm—Blount is a good bet to be a top 25 RB.
Julian Edelman (#21 WR ADP), on the other hand, is a bit overvalued in standard scoring leagues. Last year’s 24th best WR is a throwback Brady-era #1 receiver: solid on fundamentals, makes few mistakes, and tops out at around 1,000 yards. To expect a jump into the top 20 is like expecting your cat to poop in the litter box every time. Avoid modest disappointment. Leave Edelman for someone else. Brandon LaFell (#38 WR ADP) is a different story. He was more productive than Edelman last season (22nd best WR), but doesn’t get the same love. Long underutilized in Carolina before moving to New England in 2014, LaFell has the tools to jump past Edelman this season. At his ADP, you shouldn’t hesitate to draft him as the 33rd to 35th WR off the board, and then laugh maniacally (to yourself—always to yourself).
Danny Amendola (#97 consensus WR) barely played last year and could go either way this year. So much talent, but so much risk. And as Brady’s #4 or #5 target, he’s not worth the investment, even with your last pick. Aaron Dobson (#108 consensus WR) is a better guy to track as the season begins, and should reach WR5+ status if someone gets hurt.
Rob Gronkowski is going first among TEs in every sane draft. I have no problem with that, because when healthy, no tight end is more talented. But his average overall draft position is 7th. That troubles me. For whenever Brady’s sidelined (for now, the first four weeks), expect modest numbers from Gronk. The rest of the way, yes, he’ll be great. But I’d rather draft C.J. Anderson with my seventh pick. Gronk’s coming off his first healthy season in three years, though he hasn’t played all 16 games since 2011. He remains a greater injury risk than nearly every other TE in the league, having recovered from four or five surgeries during his NFL career. Some people embrace such risk because of the obvious reward. In Gronk’s case, I won’t. On a per-game basis, he’ll be the NFL’s highest scoring TE. But I’m concerned he might not be on the field during the fantasy playoffs.