Two teams remain in our preseason fantasy rundown. We lost saw them in the Super Bowl, when the Seahawks went from Team of Destiny (the dramatic comeback over Green Bay in the NFC Championship game) to What Might Have Been (the Super Bowl’s notorious/heroic final play). In fantasy, the team produced the third highest scoring QB, the third highest scoring RB, the third highest scoring DST, and while we’re at it, the seventh highest scoring kicker.
Oh, and this offseason they acquired the third highest scoring (and in recent years, the #1) TE. Not bad for a team well positioned to play for the title again.
But rarely has such a successful team possessed so few fantasy-friendly flex options. Doug Baldwin (#57 WR ADP) was its highest scoring receiver, despite being only the 44th highest scoring fantasy wideout. For patient (i.e. way too patient) fantasy owners, he garnered more than six fantasy points in only four out of 16 games. #2 WR Jermaine Kearse (#58 WR ADP) was 79th among WRs. To draft either of these guys is to pray at the altar of mediocrity; you’ll get exactly what you’ve asked for.
And what about Jimmy Graham (#2 TE ADP), who’s going in the third round of most fantasy drafts? The perennially elite tight end won’t crack the TE top 5 in 2015. He had 124 targets last year in an offense that saw 33 passing TDs. By contrast, no Seahawk receiver has cracked 100 targets with Russell Wilson at the helm—ever--and Wilson's never thrown more than 26 TDs in a season.
Take any player in one system and put him in an entirely different system, and what changes? Generally, not the system. Graham’s a product of skill, yes, but also of a throw-first / throw-often approach that put the Saints in the top 4 in passing yards in each of the past nine seasons. How has Seattle fared these past three seasons under Russell Wilson? 27th, 26th, and 27th in passing yards.
That’s not a knock on Wilson. It’s establishing reality. Seattle thrives because of defense, rushing, and limited turnovers. If you need more proof, look at what happened to middling fantasy talent Golden Tate when he jumped to the Lions in 2014. The inverse will now happen to Graham.
Offensive lines are not everything, but their impact is most noticeable when there’s a sharp improvement or decline. The Seahawks traded Pro Bowl center Max Unger and a draft pick for Graham. When first hearing the news, I thought, “What were the Saints thinking?” But Seattle’s offensive success has been due, in part, to an o-line that’s given Wilson time to throw and he and Marshawn Lynch spaces to run. The team’s replacement center will be either a 28-year-old career backup (Lemuel Jeanpierre) or an undrafted free agent (Drew Nowak). This will have an impact--whether minor or moderate—that shouldn’t be ignored.
It means Wilson (#4 QB ADP) is my fifth-ranked QB, and is not worth the fourth rounder most drafters are using to get him. Marshawn Lynch (#4 RB ADP) is justifiable, but I’m letting others grab him early. He’s the #8 RB on my draft board: near-elite as long as he stays healthy, which is less likely each year the 29-year-old’s workload equals roughly 300 carries.
Oh, and this offseason they acquired the third highest scoring (and in recent years, the #1) TE. Not bad for a team well positioned to play for the title again.
But rarely has such a successful team possessed so few fantasy-friendly flex options. Doug Baldwin (#57 WR ADP) was its highest scoring receiver, despite being only the 44th highest scoring fantasy wideout. For patient (i.e. way too patient) fantasy owners, he garnered more than six fantasy points in only four out of 16 games. #2 WR Jermaine Kearse (#58 WR ADP) was 79th among WRs. To draft either of these guys is to pray at the altar of mediocrity; you’ll get exactly what you’ve asked for.
And what about Jimmy Graham (#2 TE ADP), who’s going in the third round of most fantasy drafts? The perennially elite tight end won’t crack the TE top 5 in 2015. He had 124 targets last year in an offense that saw 33 passing TDs. By contrast, no Seahawk receiver has cracked 100 targets with Russell Wilson at the helm—ever--and Wilson's never thrown more than 26 TDs in a season.
Take any player in one system and put him in an entirely different system, and what changes? Generally, not the system. Graham’s a product of skill, yes, but also of a throw-first / throw-often approach that put the Saints in the top 4 in passing yards in each of the past nine seasons. How has Seattle fared these past three seasons under Russell Wilson? 27th, 26th, and 27th in passing yards.
That’s not a knock on Wilson. It’s establishing reality. Seattle thrives because of defense, rushing, and limited turnovers. If you need more proof, look at what happened to middling fantasy talent Golden Tate when he jumped to the Lions in 2014. The inverse will now happen to Graham.
Offensive lines are not everything, but their impact is most noticeable when there’s a sharp improvement or decline. The Seahawks traded Pro Bowl center Max Unger and a draft pick for Graham. When first hearing the news, I thought, “What were the Saints thinking?” But Seattle’s offensive success has been due, in part, to an o-line that’s given Wilson time to throw and he and Marshawn Lynch spaces to run. The team’s replacement center will be either a 28-year-old career backup (Lemuel Jeanpierre) or an undrafted free agent (Drew Nowak). This will have an impact--whether minor or moderate—that shouldn’t be ignored.
It means Wilson (#4 QB ADP) is my fifth-ranked QB, and is not worth the fourth rounder most drafters are using to get him. Marshawn Lynch (#4 RB ADP) is justifiable, but I’m letting others grab him early. He’s the #8 RB on my draft board: near-elite as long as he stays healthy, which is less likely each year the 29-year-old’s workload equals roughly 300 carries.