A few days ago I was listening to a fairly well known fantasy football podcast. The guest--a fairly well known guy with solid fantasy credentials--said something that sounded good based on conventional wisdom, but which didn't ring true. I call these sentiments "fantasy traps." Don't give in to them.
The basic sentiment was, Alshon Jeffery was great last year because he was playing alongside Brandon Marshall. Now that Marshall's gone, Jeffery will see a ton of double coverage and his numbers will suffer.
This is something a Jo-Jo would say. (For those who haven't read Fantasy Football for Winners, Jo-Jos have terrible fantasy judgment and embrace "whatever seems to make sense." We don't want to be Jo-Jos.)
If this "insight" on Jeffery's 2015 production were had merit, then most WR1s would never thrive. Antonio Brown wouldn't have scored 10% more fantasy points than the second highest scoring WR (Demaryius Thomas) last season. Odell Beckham Jr. wouldn't have scored nine times in the final six games.
Great wideouts are great regardless of who lines up on the opposite side of the field. It doesn't mean they'll all thrive uniformly. But it does mean that a downgrade at a team's #2 WR spot does not doom the #1 WR to a season of disappointment.
In Jeffery's case, we need only look at last year, when he posted top 12 WR fantasy numbers despite playing alongside an injury-plagued Brandon Marshall (who amassed only 721 yards).
What sounds good isn't always right. And what sounds bizarre/different/crazy isn't always wrong. Jo-Jos take things at face value. We need to be better than that: challenging commonly held assumptions so we can be the smartest people in our league, and making wise decisions no one has the guts to make.
The basic sentiment was, Alshon Jeffery was great last year because he was playing alongside Brandon Marshall. Now that Marshall's gone, Jeffery will see a ton of double coverage and his numbers will suffer.
This is something a Jo-Jo would say. (For those who haven't read Fantasy Football for Winners, Jo-Jos have terrible fantasy judgment and embrace "whatever seems to make sense." We don't want to be Jo-Jos.)
If this "insight" on Jeffery's 2015 production were had merit, then most WR1s would never thrive. Antonio Brown wouldn't have scored 10% more fantasy points than the second highest scoring WR (Demaryius Thomas) last season. Odell Beckham Jr. wouldn't have scored nine times in the final six games.
Great wideouts are great regardless of who lines up on the opposite side of the field. It doesn't mean they'll all thrive uniformly. But it does mean that a downgrade at a team's #2 WR spot does not doom the #1 WR to a season of disappointment.
In Jeffery's case, we need only look at last year, when he posted top 12 WR fantasy numbers despite playing alongside an injury-plagued Brandon Marshall (who amassed only 721 yards).
What sounds good isn't always right. And what sounds bizarre/different/crazy isn't always wrong. Jo-Jos take things at face value. We need to be better than that: challenging commonly held assumptions so we can be the smartest people in our league, and making wise decisions no one has the guts to make.