Accuracy matters.
I wrote Fantasy Football for Winners and started this blog three years ago because I'd been too trusting of experts' predictions, and started searching for a better way to draft and manage a fantasy football team.
When I share predictions, rankings, etc., the intention is not to try to convince you I'm right. Most of my predictions run counter to conventional wisdom. So my primary intent is to challenge us to think differently. If our research and analysis help us return to conventional wisdom, well, then at least we're being deliberate about it. But when we're able to determine that certain players are overvalued or undervalued, that's often the difference between winning and losing.
As mentioned yesterday, I'm expanding the annual "Top 10 Bold Predictions" to 50 players--50 guys who are very overvalued or undervalued. I don't want to wait until Monday to start, so let's start now: a few each day until mid-August. There might be a few tweaks before Week 1--for example, if one of these guys gets hurt during a preseason game. But on the whole, these are the guys I'm going with.
Accuracy matters. At the end of this season, we'll know whether that descriptor continues to hold true for this site.
(1) Sammy Watkins. #20 WR ADP. Prediction: Won't be a top 30 WR ADP. His 128 targets last season placed him 21st among all receivers, helping him become the 27th highest scoring fantasy WR. But he won’t come close to matching that target total in 2015 as the Bills focus more on the run game. And keep in mind that half of Watkins’ weekly performances ended with three fantasy points or less. That doesn’t mean he’ll remain this inconsistent. But it does suggest that with the arrival of more offensive weapons and a change in offensive scheme, Watkins has less room for error to become a top 30 WR, much less a top 20 one.
(2) Bills DST. #2 DST ADP. Prediction: Won't be a top 6 DST. By my count, the Bills had seven favorable matchups in weeks 1-16 last season. This year it's down to four or five, with plenty of contests that should yield five or fewer points. I get that they have Rex Ryan. But I also see an offense that, aside from a big upgrade at RB, doesn't have the talent to score as often as they did in 2014 (when they were 18th in league scoring). Most people believe Buffalo can match what they did last year. I think they overachieved, and their regression means they aren't worth drafting anywhere close to where your opponents will want to draft them.
(3) Tom Brady. #10 QB ADP, in that even if the courts don't overrule his suspension and he's limited to just 12 games, fantasy drafters believe that cumulatively he'll still be a top 10 QB. My prediction: He won't be a top 12 QB from Week 5 thru the end of the season. In other words, if we expand his weeks 5-17 numbers over a full 16-game season and then compare them to all other QBs (multiplying his fantasy points by 1.33), Brady won't be among the top 12. It essentially means he's draftable only in some 16+ team leagues and in 2-QB leagues. Despite achieving a good 2014 season and winning the Super Bowl, his throwing accuracy continues to decline; last year his completion percentage beyond 10 yards was 48%--the same as middling Ryan Fitzpatrick and two points below middling Teddy Bridgewater. Guys Brady's age don't suddenly get better. Bill Belichick can only do so much to mask this reality. Whatever you think about Deflategate and of Brady specifically, his days of fantasy relevance are coming to an end.
I wrote Fantasy Football for Winners and started this blog three years ago because I'd been too trusting of experts' predictions, and started searching for a better way to draft and manage a fantasy football team.
When I share predictions, rankings, etc., the intention is not to try to convince you I'm right. Most of my predictions run counter to conventional wisdom. So my primary intent is to challenge us to think differently. If our research and analysis help us return to conventional wisdom, well, then at least we're being deliberate about it. But when we're able to determine that certain players are overvalued or undervalued, that's often the difference between winning and losing.
As mentioned yesterday, I'm expanding the annual "Top 10 Bold Predictions" to 50 players--50 guys who are very overvalued or undervalued. I don't want to wait until Monday to start, so let's start now: a few each day until mid-August. There might be a few tweaks before Week 1--for example, if one of these guys gets hurt during a preseason game. But on the whole, these are the guys I'm going with.
Accuracy matters. At the end of this season, we'll know whether that descriptor continues to hold true for this site.
(1) Sammy Watkins. #20 WR ADP. Prediction: Won't be a top 30 WR ADP. His 128 targets last season placed him 21st among all receivers, helping him become the 27th highest scoring fantasy WR. But he won’t come close to matching that target total in 2015 as the Bills focus more on the run game. And keep in mind that half of Watkins’ weekly performances ended with three fantasy points or less. That doesn’t mean he’ll remain this inconsistent. But it does suggest that with the arrival of more offensive weapons and a change in offensive scheme, Watkins has less room for error to become a top 30 WR, much less a top 20 one.
(2) Bills DST. #2 DST ADP. Prediction: Won't be a top 6 DST. By my count, the Bills had seven favorable matchups in weeks 1-16 last season. This year it's down to four or five, with plenty of contests that should yield five or fewer points. I get that they have Rex Ryan. But I also see an offense that, aside from a big upgrade at RB, doesn't have the talent to score as often as they did in 2014 (when they were 18th in league scoring). Most people believe Buffalo can match what they did last year. I think they overachieved, and their regression means they aren't worth drafting anywhere close to where your opponents will want to draft them.
(3) Tom Brady. #10 QB ADP, in that even if the courts don't overrule his suspension and he's limited to just 12 games, fantasy drafters believe that cumulatively he'll still be a top 10 QB. My prediction: He won't be a top 12 QB from Week 5 thru the end of the season. In other words, if we expand his weeks 5-17 numbers over a full 16-game season and then compare them to all other QBs (multiplying his fantasy points by 1.33), Brady won't be among the top 12. It essentially means he's draftable only in some 16+ team leagues and in 2-QB leagues. Despite achieving a good 2014 season and winning the Super Bowl, his throwing accuracy continues to decline; last year his completion percentage beyond 10 yards was 48%--the same as middling Ryan Fitzpatrick and two points below middling Teddy Bridgewater. Guys Brady's age don't suddenly get better. Bill Belichick can only do so much to mask this reality. Whatever you think about Deflategate and of Brady specifically, his days of fantasy relevance are coming to an end.