Last preseason, most of the fantasy universe believed only one Jaguar merited every-week starter status: RB Toby Gerhart. Conventional wisdom dictated that, because he had been so successful as Adrian Peterson’s backup, surely he’d replicate that success in Jacksonville. This blog went out on a limb, urging readers four or five times to avoid him at all costs:
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/734874529893862
Aside from this blog, I also warned against drafting Gerhart in Sports Illustrated and on ESPN and Fox Sports radio shows. In a tweet I staked my “irrelevant reputation” on Gerhart losing his starting gig.
This is, in a nutshell, why homework trumps hunches nearly every time. And it helps explain why many experts are once again misreading the Jaguars.
Blake Bortles is the 28th ranked QB among Fantasy Pros’ collection of 47 experts. He’ll be better than that—top 20 for those keeping score. Consider that the Jags have made efforts this offseason to beef up an offensive line that actually got better last season after they made some in-season adjustments. Three of Bortles’ top four WRs missed a combined 12 games in 2014. With the exception of Cecil Shorts, all were rookies. When you add it up, very few—if any—QBs could have excelled under these conditions. This year Bortles’ minus-6 TD/INT ratio will, at a minimum, flip to plus-6 as he takes the next step in his young, promising NFL career. 3,200+ yards and 24+ TDs are likely.
The sky’s the limit for rookie T.J. Yeldon. The ground game is expected to revolve around him, which you need in an RB2. As with all rookies, we’ll want to see how he continues to develop this preseason. But for now he’s a safe bet to earn his current #23 RB ADP.
I loved Allen Robinson last preseason. If he’d remained healthy in 2014, he was on pace to be a top 40 WR. This year’s #37 WR ADP is a little conservative; I’d pounce on him as a mid-level WR3. He averaged nine targets per game in his last eight contests and will be Jacksonville’s target leader in 2015. Raise your hand if you’ll take 900+ yards and 6+ TDs from your WR3. Robinson should finish inside the top 30. WR Marqise Lee is going in the other direction: a great talent, but he couldn’t really get going last year, had trouble staying healthy, and missed last week’s minicamp due to a knee injury. He’s not worth a draft spot unless he turns things around, and even then, he might be only the fourth or fifth receiving option with limited scoring potential.
Meanwhile, Allen Hurns was a revelation last year, coming out of nowhere to become the Jags’ most reliable receiver and finishing among fantasy’s top 50 WRs. I’m much more bullish than Fantasy Pros’ 46 experts, who rank him 83rd among WRs. He’ll finish among the top 60, making him an occasional plug-and-play option, and a little more if Robinson or Julius Thomas are hurt. Speaking of Thomas, his #6 TE ADP is a trap. He’s scored 24 TDs in his last 27 games as a member of one of the most elite offenses in recent NFL history. That production is not sustainable in Jacksonville. Not even close. He’s averaged only 47 yards per game during his dominant 2013 and 2014 campaigns, and it’s doubtful he averages much more in his new surroundings. Expect 600-800 yards, 5-6 scores, and at least a couple of missed games due to injury. He won’t produce top 10 TE numbers.
https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/734874529893862
Aside from this blog, I also warned against drafting Gerhart in Sports Illustrated and on ESPN and Fox Sports radio shows. In a tweet I staked my “irrelevant reputation” on Gerhart losing his starting gig.
This is, in a nutshell, why homework trumps hunches nearly every time. And it helps explain why many experts are once again misreading the Jaguars.
Blake Bortles is the 28th ranked QB among Fantasy Pros’ collection of 47 experts. He’ll be better than that—top 20 for those keeping score. Consider that the Jags have made efforts this offseason to beef up an offensive line that actually got better last season after they made some in-season adjustments. Three of Bortles’ top four WRs missed a combined 12 games in 2014. With the exception of Cecil Shorts, all were rookies. When you add it up, very few—if any—QBs could have excelled under these conditions. This year Bortles’ minus-6 TD/INT ratio will, at a minimum, flip to plus-6 as he takes the next step in his young, promising NFL career. 3,200+ yards and 24+ TDs are likely.
The sky’s the limit for rookie T.J. Yeldon. The ground game is expected to revolve around him, which you need in an RB2. As with all rookies, we’ll want to see how he continues to develop this preseason. But for now he’s a safe bet to earn his current #23 RB ADP.
I loved Allen Robinson last preseason. If he’d remained healthy in 2014, he was on pace to be a top 40 WR. This year’s #37 WR ADP is a little conservative; I’d pounce on him as a mid-level WR3. He averaged nine targets per game in his last eight contests and will be Jacksonville’s target leader in 2015. Raise your hand if you’ll take 900+ yards and 6+ TDs from your WR3. Robinson should finish inside the top 30. WR Marqise Lee is going in the other direction: a great talent, but he couldn’t really get going last year, had trouble staying healthy, and missed last week’s minicamp due to a knee injury. He’s not worth a draft spot unless he turns things around, and even then, he might be only the fourth or fifth receiving option with limited scoring potential.
Meanwhile, Allen Hurns was a revelation last year, coming out of nowhere to become the Jags’ most reliable receiver and finishing among fantasy’s top 50 WRs. I’m much more bullish than Fantasy Pros’ 46 experts, who rank him 83rd among WRs. He’ll finish among the top 60, making him an occasional plug-and-play option, and a little more if Robinson or Julius Thomas are hurt. Speaking of Thomas, his #6 TE ADP is a trap. He’s scored 24 TDs in his last 27 games as a member of one of the most elite offenses in recent NFL history. That production is not sustainable in Jacksonville. Not even close. He’s averaged only 47 yards per game during his dominant 2013 and 2014 campaigns, and it’s doubtful he averages much more in his new surroundings. Expect 600-800 yards, 5-6 scores, and at least a couple of missed games due to injury. He won’t produce top 10 TE numbers.