The eighth team we’re covering on this blog has up to eight draftable players (depending on the size of your league), but with several unknowns entering the preseason. We start with the generally reliable Tony Romo, whose #10 QB ADP closely mirrors his #11 QB fantasy production in 2014. Interesting stat: Although he did miss a game, Romo had fewer passing attempts (435) than the other 20 top QB fantasy scorers, and with a couple exceptions, the numbers aren’t even close (many had over 550 attempts). In the same number of games the previous year he had 100 more attempts. Although Dallas appears to be committed to the run once again, I think Romo’s pass attempts and yardage have nowhere to go by up. Expect another year of low-end QB1 numbers.
One of the toughest reads to make on an RB is how their terrific numbers in a limited role will translate as a starter. Joseph Randle averaged an incredible 6.7 YPC last year on 51 rushing attempts. How will he respond to the strain of 15-20 touches per game? I like him at his #24 RB ADP—not only because he’s the likely starter on a good offensive team, but also because I don’t trust his recently signed sidekick, Darren McFadden. McFadden will not rush for more than 400 yards this season--or any future season for that matter. Forget the Cowboys’ vaunted offensive line. Run DMC hasn’t exceeded 3.4 YPC since 2011, and aside from last season’s anomaly, he’s missed 30% of his games since joining the league. Two days ago his RB ADP was 32. Now it’s 31. The trend’s going in the wrong direction. He won’t be a top 50 RB.
And what RB rundown would be complete without Lance Dunbar. According to Fantasy Pros’ “expert” consensus, he’s the 82nd best RB. If you buy into my thinking on McFadden, you can understand why I’m buying low on Dunbar, who’s a good bet to average 10-or-so touches per game with 4-6 TD scoring potential.
Jason Witten’s #11 TE ADP is fairly on target. The 33-year-old is coming off his worst season since 2006 and should rebound slightly. WR Dez Bryant’s threatened holdout could have a domino effect on Witten’s and other players’ values. Even if Dez does play in all 16 games, his #2 WR ADP is optimistic, as I see him as an early second rounder at best.
On the other side of the field, Terrance Williams has seen his WR ADP improve from 52 to 47 in one week. He’s still a bargain as the #2 receiving option (I think he’ll be more involved than Jason Witten) in a solid passing attack. He should finish in the top 40. Cole Beasley, on the other hand, is only valuable if Bryant’s holdout continues. A nice find late last season when he racked up four TDs from Week 12 to Week 16, he’ll have far more games with three fantasy points or less than he will with seven points or more.
One of the toughest reads to make on an RB is how their terrific numbers in a limited role will translate as a starter. Joseph Randle averaged an incredible 6.7 YPC last year on 51 rushing attempts. How will he respond to the strain of 15-20 touches per game? I like him at his #24 RB ADP—not only because he’s the likely starter on a good offensive team, but also because I don’t trust his recently signed sidekick, Darren McFadden. McFadden will not rush for more than 400 yards this season--or any future season for that matter. Forget the Cowboys’ vaunted offensive line. Run DMC hasn’t exceeded 3.4 YPC since 2011, and aside from last season’s anomaly, he’s missed 30% of his games since joining the league. Two days ago his RB ADP was 32. Now it’s 31. The trend’s going in the wrong direction. He won’t be a top 50 RB.
And what RB rundown would be complete without Lance Dunbar. According to Fantasy Pros’ “expert” consensus, he’s the 82nd best RB. If you buy into my thinking on McFadden, you can understand why I’m buying low on Dunbar, who’s a good bet to average 10-or-so touches per game with 4-6 TD scoring potential.
Jason Witten’s #11 TE ADP is fairly on target. The 33-year-old is coming off his worst season since 2006 and should rebound slightly. WR Dez Bryant’s threatened holdout could have a domino effect on Witten’s and other players’ values. Even if Dez does play in all 16 games, his #2 WR ADP is optimistic, as I see him as an early second rounder at best.
On the other side of the field, Terrance Williams has seen his WR ADP improve from 52 to 47 in one week. He’s still a bargain as the #2 receiving option (I think he’ll be more involved than Jason Witten) in a solid passing attack. He should finish in the top 40. Cole Beasley, on the other hand, is only valuable if Bryant’s holdout continues. A nice find late last season when he racked up four TDs from Week 12 to Week 16, he’ll have far more games with three fantasy points or less than he will with seven points or more.