A couple years ago I urged people to draft Eli Manning, sensing that he was headed for a career year and low-end QB1 numbers. He was coming off four straights seasons with 3,900+ passing yards and 26+ TDs. But then he had to go out and have the worst season of his career. A year later (2014), I suggested he'd be the 28th best fantasy QB; he finished the season in the #12 spot. The moral of this story is, I have no idea what Eli Manning will do.
That said, last year I also called RB Rashad Jennings overrated as a major injury risk, and RB Andre Williams (ranked on my draft board only three RB spots behind Jennings) underrated as the Giants' backfield backup. Williams turned out to be a steal as a late-round RB pickup, while Jennings simply couldn't stay healthy. So all is not lost when discussing the Giants on this board.
Heading into 2015, Eli's value is almost entirely tied to Odell Beckham, Jr.'s. OBJ made Eli look like a QB1--on par with his current #12 QB ADP). Smart money is on OBJ (#3 WR ADP) continuing to play like an WR1 more weeks than not, giving Eli a great shot at low-end QB1 numbers over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Victor Cruz is coming off a patellar tendon injury that, combined with his humbling 2013 season--makes him one of the riskiest WRs in the draft. His WR ADP (#34) suggests around 800 yards and five TDs. Doable? Sure, if he stays healthy and if Eli throws for 4,500+ yards and 30-35 TDs. But it's not likely. On the flip side, Reuben Randle is a legit bargain at his current 69 WR ADP. This guy could end the season as the team’s second leading receiver. I'd love to grab him in the 10th or 11th round as a WR4, where he should be available if Cruz's prospects (and drafters' opinion of Cruz) appear high.
Last year I expressed doubt about TE Larry Donnell's value after his shocking 3-TD performance (https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/745677478813567). This year I'm anticipating a slight uptick in performance. Whereas last year he was the 12th high scoring fantasy TE, currently I see him as the #9 or #10 overall TE, making him undervalued based on current ADP (#16 TE). Keep in mind that this offseason he worked on his biggest liability: blocking. If this yields positive results, he should stay on the field for more plays, leading to more targets.
On the RB front, I'm once again not buying into Rashad Jennings (#30 RB ADP). His health issues and 3.8 YPC contributed to Eli's strong numbers, as the Giants simply couldn't rely on the running game the way they were accustomed to. In addition, the guy is 30 years old, has never topped 167 carries in a season, and--most damaging--his longest carry last year was for 18 yards, which was the lowest among all rushers gaining at least 311 yards (62 rushers in all).
Andre Williams (#46 RB ADP) has a lot to prove this preseason after failing to dominate when Jennings was sidelined. If his plodding numbers (3.3 YPC last year) continue this August, he might not get enough opportunities to rebound during the season. As for Shane Vereen, I loved this guy last year and was surprised at how much he was underutilized (though obviously Bill Belichick knew what he was doing). His 35 RB ADP is a little steep for a guy who might not average 10 touches per contest, but in PPR he has the potential to be a 60-70 catch, 6-8 TD bargain.
That said, last year I also called RB Rashad Jennings overrated as a major injury risk, and RB Andre Williams (ranked on my draft board only three RB spots behind Jennings) underrated as the Giants' backfield backup. Williams turned out to be a steal as a late-round RB pickup, while Jennings simply couldn't stay healthy. So all is not lost when discussing the Giants on this board.
Heading into 2015, Eli's value is almost entirely tied to Odell Beckham, Jr.'s. OBJ made Eli look like a QB1--on par with his current #12 QB ADP). Smart money is on OBJ (#3 WR ADP) continuing to play like an WR1 more weeks than not, giving Eli a great shot at low-end QB1 numbers over the course of the season. Meanwhile, Victor Cruz is coming off a patellar tendon injury that, combined with his humbling 2013 season--makes him one of the riskiest WRs in the draft. His WR ADP (#34) suggests around 800 yards and five TDs. Doable? Sure, if he stays healthy and if Eli throws for 4,500+ yards and 30-35 TDs. But it's not likely. On the flip side, Reuben Randle is a legit bargain at his current 69 WR ADP. This guy could end the season as the team’s second leading receiver. I'd love to grab him in the 10th or 11th round as a WR4, where he should be available if Cruz's prospects (and drafters' opinion of Cruz) appear high.
Last year I expressed doubt about TE Larry Donnell's value after his shocking 3-TD performance (https://www.facebook.com/FantasyFootballForWinners/posts/745677478813567). This year I'm anticipating a slight uptick in performance. Whereas last year he was the 12th high scoring fantasy TE, currently I see him as the #9 or #10 overall TE, making him undervalued based on current ADP (#16 TE). Keep in mind that this offseason he worked on his biggest liability: blocking. If this yields positive results, he should stay on the field for more plays, leading to more targets.
On the RB front, I'm once again not buying into Rashad Jennings (#30 RB ADP). His health issues and 3.8 YPC contributed to Eli's strong numbers, as the Giants simply couldn't rely on the running game the way they were accustomed to. In addition, the guy is 30 years old, has never topped 167 carries in a season, and--most damaging--his longest carry last year was for 18 yards, which was the lowest among all rushers gaining at least 311 yards (62 rushers in all).
Andre Williams (#46 RB ADP) has a lot to prove this preseason after failing to dominate when Jennings was sidelined. If his plodding numbers (3.3 YPC last year) continue this August, he might not get enough opportunities to rebound during the season. As for Shane Vereen, I loved this guy last year and was surprised at how much he was underutilized (though obviously Bill Belichick knew what he was doing). His 35 RB ADP is a little steep for a guy who might not average 10 touches per contest, but in PPR he has the potential to be a 60-70 catch, 6-8 TD bargain.