The Cardinals are one of the toughest teams to figure out fantasy wise because of the 35-year-old Carson Palmer. Last year I suggested that Palmer should be considered for MVP--not because of his decent (thought not exceptional) numbers, but because his injury transformed Arizona from a legitimate Super Bowl contender to arguably the worst offense in playoff history (their 78 total yards--behind QB Ryan Lindley--marked the fewest in playoff history). Palmer made the offense go, from a reality perspective and a fantasy perspective.
His current 24 QB ADP reflects the risk of drafting someone who realistically might not make it through the season. That said, before getting sidelined last year, he was on pace for about 4,300 passing yards and 29 TDs. For the 24th QB taken off the board, I’d take those numbers any day. While the risk is there, as long as my bench is deep enough, I want Palmer as trade bait and as an occasional spot starter.
And so the receiving corps' value hinges on Palmer's health. When the season begins, Michael Floyd (33 WR ADP) will be undervalued. He was a breakout performer in 2013 and has the skills to remain fantasy relevant most weeks. Larry Fitzgerald (35 WR ADP) is overvalued; I don't see the veteran garnering more than 800 yards and a few scores. John Brown (58 ADP) is significantly undervalued, as he should garner at least WR3 numbers most weeks, with the occasional breakout performance. He was a player to watch last preseason. Now he's a player to draft.
In the backfield, Andre Ellington is way overbought at his #22 RB ADP. Durability questions and a paltry 3.3 YPC in 2014 should leave little doubt that he’s one of the riskiest top 30 RBs you’ll find. He might rebound. Really, he *should* rebound. But I don't want to have to rely on him. Instead, rookie David Johnson--at a generous 55 RB ADP--should be a trendy late-round pick for those needing an RB handcuff. If Ellington falters or gets hurt, Johnson has the potential to be an RB3 or even an RB2, depending on what he shows as the preseason progresses.
His current 24 QB ADP reflects the risk of drafting someone who realistically might not make it through the season. That said, before getting sidelined last year, he was on pace for about 4,300 passing yards and 29 TDs. For the 24th QB taken off the board, I’d take those numbers any day. While the risk is there, as long as my bench is deep enough, I want Palmer as trade bait and as an occasional spot starter.
And so the receiving corps' value hinges on Palmer's health. When the season begins, Michael Floyd (33 WR ADP) will be undervalued. He was a breakout performer in 2013 and has the skills to remain fantasy relevant most weeks. Larry Fitzgerald (35 WR ADP) is overvalued; I don't see the veteran garnering more than 800 yards and a few scores. John Brown (58 ADP) is significantly undervalued, as he should garner at least WR3 numbers most weeks, with the occasional breakout performance. He was a player to watch last preseason. Now he's a player to draft.
In the backfield, Andre Ellington is way overbought at his #22 RB ADP. Durability questions and a paltry 3.3 YPC in 2014 should leave little doubt that he’s one of the riskiest top 30 RBs you’ll find. He might rebound. Really, he *should* rebound. But I don't want to have to rely on him. Instead, rookie David Johnson--at a generous 55 RB ADP--should be a trendy late-round pick for those needing an RB handcuff. If Ellington falters or gets hurt, Johnson has the potential to be an RB3 or even an RB2, depending on what he shows as the preseason progresses.