When the fantasy world looks back on the 2015 season, one of the biggest headscratchers will be “Why was Andy Dalton’s preseason QB ADP at 26?” While there’s still time for that ranking to improve before Week 1, it’s telling that last year’s 18th best fantasy QB (I’m still talking about Dalton)—who played without his #2 receiver and whose #1 receiver wasn’t at full strength for a chunk of the season—is getting zero fantasy love. Are people simply tired of Andy Dalton?
I’m not. I’m relatively bullish about Dalton, despite the Bengals being a fairly run-heavy team. He’s coming off his worst NFL season (career low TDs, tied for career low in passing yards), even though he earned a career high in completion percentage. This is not the 26th best fantasy QB. Not by a long shot. Dalton will finish inside the top 16, and that’s a bit conservative.
Obviously, A.J. Green is the key factor in all this. His ADP (#8 WR) is very realistic. A healthy Green means a solid Dalton. And then there’s the x-factor: Marvin Jones (#70 WR ADP). He racked up 712 yards and 10 TDs in 2013 on only 51 catches. Last year, foot and ankle injuries kept him off the field. It’s time to choose sides on Jones. Most of the expert community doesn’t think much of him. Of 55 renowned fantasologists listed on the Fantasy Pros website his average WR ranking is 61st. No one has him better than 42nd—in other words a WR4.
In case you can’t see me, my jaw just dropped. Jones is a near lock for WR3+ numbers. He’s a top 35 WR in my book. He must be owned in all standard leagues.
And what about last year’s 30th best fantasy WR, Mohamed Sanu? How is his WR ADP (68th) better than Jones’s, unless people believe Jones will get hurt again, which might happen, but really, why shun Jones when his potential is so high and his value is so low? Although Sanu was a solid overall performer, he dropped more passes (14) than anyone else in the league. With everyone healthy, he’ll return to virtual anonymity.
Another brutal injury Dalton & co. contended with last season was Tyler Eifert’s dislocated elbow, which knocked out the second-year TE in Week 1. He remained sidelined all year. Now he’s back with a vengeance (really, I have no idea if he’s vengeful, but still . . .). Eifert and his #23 TE ADP should rank around the back end of the top 20 at his position. But don’t buy into the hype some are spouting that he’s a borderline TE1; he’s not. In this offense, there’s a cavernous drop-off from Green/Jones to Eifert.
Last year’s numbers showed Jeremy Hill (#11 RB ADP) played better as a starter, while Gio Bernard (#28 RB ADP) was better suited in a support role. In PPR leagues, Bernard could post low-end-to-middling RB2 numbers as a passing downs specialist. But I don’t quite like him at his current ADP in standard leagues; there are too many lead backs on other teams I like more.
Meanwhile, Hill is a steal at his ADP. If I have a late first round pick where the top five RBs are off the board, I’m grabbing Hill and never looking back. There aren’t many RBs on run-heavy teams with his talent. If he finishes the year second or third in RB scoring, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. And neither should you.
I’m not. I’m relatively bullish about Dalton, despite the Bengals being a fairly run-heavy team. He’s coming off his worst NFL season (career low TDs, tied for career low in passing yards), even though he earned a career high in completion percentage. This is not the 26th best fantasy QB. Not by a long shot. Dalton will finish inside the top 16, and that’s a bit conservative.
Obviously, A.J. Green is the key factor in all this. His ADP (#8 WR) is very realistic. A healthy Green means a solid Dalton. And then there’s the x-factor: Marvin Jones (#70 WR ADP). He racked up 712 yards and 10 TDs in 2013 on only 51 catches. Last year, foot and ankle injuries kept him off the field. It’s time to choose sides on Jones. Most of the expert community doesn’t think much of him. Of 55 renowned fantasologists listed on the Fantasy Pros website his average WR ranking is 61st. No one has him better than 42nd—in other words a WR4.
In case you can’t see me, my jaw just dropped. Jones is a near lock for WR3+ numbers. He’s a top 35 WR in my book. He must be owned in all standard leagues.
And what about last year’s 30th best fantasy WR, Mohamed Sanu? How is his WR ADP (68th) better than Jones’s, unless people believe Jones will get hurt again, which might happen, but really, why shun Jones when his potential is so high and his value is so low? Although Sanu was a solid overall performer, he dropped more passes (14) than anyone else in the league. With everyone healthy, he’ll return to virtual anonymity.
Another brutal injury Dalton & co. contended with last season was Tyler Eifert’s dislocated elbow, which knocked out the second-year TE in Week 1. He remained sidelined all year. Now he’s back with a vengeance (really, I have no idea if he’s vengeful, but still . . .). Eifert and his #23 TE ADP should rank around the back end of the top 20 at his position. But don’t buy into the hype some are spouting that he’s a borderline TE1; he’s not. In this offense, there’s a cavernous drop-off from Green/Jones to Eifert.
Last year’s numbers showed Jeremy Hill (#11 RB ADP) played better as a starter, while Gio Bernard (#28 RB ADP) was better suited in a support role. In PPR leagues, Bernard could post low-end-to-middling RB2 numbers as a passing downs specialist. But I don’t quite like him at his current ADP in standard leagues; there are too many lead backs on other teams I like more.
Meanwhile, Hill is a steal at his ADP. If I have a late first round pick where the top five RBs are off the board, I’m grabbing Hill and never looking back. There aren’t many RBs on run-heavy teams with his talent. If he finishes the year second or third in RB scoring, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. And neither should you.